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Winter 2012 last Chance

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-03, 4:34 pm

The precip shield of the developing low is already much bigger than what the models are showing...this could have pretty big implications not sure how significant this is...but its definately much different than what models are showing. This probably has a little bit to do with the northern and southern streams phasing earlier than models have shown.

That precip down below us is headed for us with marginal temps in place tonight and tomorrow then it drops below freezing tomorrow night...I do believe that this is gonna get interesting



Last edited by Toot on 2012-03-03, 9:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by jmundie on 2012-03-03, 6:42 pm

Toot - I'm really surprised you haven't mentioned the blockbuster snowstorm that's been on the Euro that past two runs.

Or the wicked cold gfs ensembles for next weekend.

The models that aren't showing it, are missing the phase and leaving the energy back in the southwest.

For two runs now, everyone in middle tennessee gets slammed - numbers are a little lower east of I81 because the phase is a bit too early for you guys.

But interesting to me.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-03, 6:54 pm

Ive seen them....the ensembles cold is impressive....im not sure I buy the snow though. You know how those anafront situations usually work theirself out on the models. Be interesting to see if they correct theirselves Mundie.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by jmundie on 2012-03-03, 7:47 pm

I don't know that its an anafront so much as its a stalled boundary of arctic air with several low pressures/waves of precip riding up the boundary on both sides, much like this event from Dec 2004



Here's the euro at 144


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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 2:06 am

Might be a decent surprise tomorrow night. JKL is giving 1-2 inch amounts in areas below 1000 feet in elevation just across the border from me with a low of 32.

MRX says less than an inch for me but with a low of 27.

Seems contradictory but they often clash in their forecasts.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a winter weather advisory for snow in SE Kentucky, and SW VA, NE TN, Smokies and possibly in the Scott, Morgan, Campbell, Claiborne Northern Plateau block issued tomorrow if the trends are still going how they are.

This could be very heavy wet snow that really comes down hard for a few hours.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 9:38 am

The data has quickly changed for the valley in regards to Knoxville and northward... yesterday short range hi res models were showing light accums....now its screw zone city again due to marginal temps facepalm

Meanwhile there is a WWA out for the smokies.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Homemommy on 2012-03-04, 11:08 am

I have flurries at my house!! lmao

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Reb on 2012-03-04, 11:31 am

Me too! So weird its like 42

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Homemommy on 2012-03-04, 11:33 am

Reb wrote:Me too! So weird its like 42

It's 47 at my house. Couldn't believe my eyes. It's gone now, but it was so pretty while it lasted.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 12:47 pm

This is a very interesting system with high surprise potential..it may very well start off as rain in the valley areas as the surface low switches its course from southeast to purely east... this should cause a very brief period of winds out of the southwest which will probably warm temps a bit as the synoptic band of precip enters the east TN region but winds will quickly rebound to much more favorable conditions for snow.

As the surface low moves slightly east of us it also closes off (becomes stronger) and a nice deformation band of snow lashes east TN I-40 and north....Snow could fall quickly and heavily at times as winds turn purely out of the NW temps will crash and could fall below freezing in the northern valley locations as this turns into more of NW flow event for the Smokies and scattered snow showers in the valley areas north of I-40.

Just as fast as the system crashes in here it will exit likely walloping the mountain locations with several inches of wet snow with lighter amounts in the northern valley locations. Due to the high surprise and bust potential of this system I will hold off on making any call maps but the areas highlighted by MRX's SPS all should see a a very quick and intense snow FALLING.

If you would for sure like to see a very intense snowfall I would suggest driving up to Newfound Gap in the GSMNP.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 3:29 pm

Getting a decent snow shower right now. MRX moved me up to 1-2 inches accumulation for tonight. Not under an advisory but I'm pretty sure that's advisory criteria.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-03-04, 3:29 pm

Getting a flizzard in west Knox. Wind howling and 46 degrees lol.
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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by AndyP on 2012-03-04, 3:30 pm

[/quote]TNZ018-043-045-047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-050430-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0007.120305T0300Z-120305T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.120305T0300Z-120305T1700Z/
JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-
RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...CEDAR CREEK...ERWIN...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...
LEBANON...ABINGDON
322 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT...HAVING BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

* EVENT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ELEVATION...WITH
3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 2500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION...
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[quote]
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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 3:31 pm

And as I post that MRX upgrades me to an advisory for 1-3 inches tonight.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 4:09 pm

MRX in the AFD mentions that the central valley could see up to 2 inches of snow tonight but they are still holding off on an advisory there.

JKL mentions several hours of very heavy snowfall rates tonight easily being able to overcome ground temp issues.

We had a nice hard freeze this morning, with a low of 26 degrees that hopefully helped things a little too.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 4:13 pm

Yeah this is looking like quite possibly the best event of the season for the cantral valley northward lmao

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-03-04, 4:15 pm

Very interesting John. If I end up getting measurable snow from this little screamer I'm gonna laugh. All that time spent tracking storms this winter and all I got was 2 or 3 dustings. Watch this one yield snowman snow.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 4:21 pm

This is a year where you cherish every flake that falls.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 5:35 pm

I really dont see a way around advisory level snow in the central and northern valley locations...be interesting to see how MRX goes on that in their next update. This should be a nice picture taking snow that sticks to trees and all.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 6:33 pm

Dont look like they will be issuing any advisories for the central valley...but they took the SPS down so that still leaves me scratching my head.



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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 7:03 pm

I guess that looks like 2-4 inches for me. MRX is being very aggressive. The other WFO are forecasting at least some rain but my forecast is just 70 percent snow now.


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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Reb on 2012-03-04, 7:04 pm

my AFD says up to 2 inches for NW Blount but pinpoint says up to a half inch...makes no sense to me. either way, a dusting would satisfy.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 7:10 pm


WVLT forecast..

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Reb on 2012-03-04, 7:19 pm

seems a bit south on the trace amounts but otherwise seems fairly reasonable. david aldrich is pretty solid over there at WVLT. thanks oakridgeweather

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 7:22 pm

The temps are dropping nicely across most of the area. I'm down to 36.7 already. Most observation stations seems to be between 40-42 expect for Oak Ridge, which is for some reason at 46.

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