Re: May Severe Weather

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-06, 7:24 am

Morning everyone. It was clear when I looked out at the megamoon this morning around 5 a.m.. Now, I'm surrounded by dense fog. I have a feeling the lake has something to do with it. It's as thick as pea soup. potstir

MRX thinks that best chance of any storm is near the NC border, or far southeast TN today.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG DEW POINT AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS BOUNDARY FROM NW TN TO NE AL TO N SC. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE SE POSSIBLE AFFECTING SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF SE TN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NC TODAY AND MAY MOVE INTO THE TN MOUNTAINS WITH NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG SOUTHERN AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM READINGS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF THE EXTENDED WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MRX CWA FOR LIKELY POPS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCATIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-05-06, 8:10 am

a nice broad area of slight risk out for tomorrow over parts of the south and ohio valley... not looking for anything major... but looking like a nice squall line late monday with a marginal wind threat for us . gee , at least its something... best shear looks nor up into the ohio valley were they have a better chance of seeing some iso super cells. beer

by Vanster67 2012-05-06, 8:31 am

I'll take it and run with it!!! beer

by **Toot** 2012-05-06, 9:56 am

Im not really seeing any organized squall line...more like a jumbled mess..lol

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-06, 11:25 am

Slight change in today's forecast. Could be some isolated pop up storms outside the mountains...per MRX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...APPEARS THERE MAY BE BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
TODAY THAN EXPECTED AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION OUTSIDE WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECAST...SO WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL
ZONES. WILL ALSO RAISE MOST MAX TEMPS A BIT. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME
TWEAKS MAINLY TO SKY AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.

It definitely is muggy outside...

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-05-06, 12:54 pm

Toot wrote:Im not really seeing any organized squall line...more like a jumbled mess..lol

i guess i should have made it more clearer... more for west tennessee on the squall line type. pals

by **Toot** 2012-05-06, 1:23 pm

I dont see anything I would call a squall line but that word is quite subjective...I see more of a broke down and crippled QLCS
May Severe Weather - Page 18 Old_man_with_cane-720867

May Severe Weather - Page 18 Old_man_with_cane-720867

WW WRF

May Severe Weather - Page 18 Wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour

The NAM is pretty much the same

by **Adam2014** 2012-05-06, 5:32 pm

I just need some organized rain of some sort and it looks like we will get it.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-06, 6:24 pm

LOL at Toot and his broken down QLCS.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-06, 6:43 pm

Looks like fun things are going on in middle TN. Hoping the east can get some action eventually.

popcorn

by **chaser2b** 2012-05-06, 9:01 pm

I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the nice storms we had going on. Looks like Nashville may have got a decent hail storm. My girlfriend who lives a little southward of me in White House also said there was some quarter size hail at her house. All I saw was some much needed heavy rain, and some moderate wind gusts.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-06, 9:19 pm

I'm seeing some distant lightning from some storms in the mountains, currently. They are actually drifting toward me at the moment. Not sure if they will survive with the loss of daytime heating, but a nice light show, nonetheless.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-06, 9:30 pm

WxFreak wrote:I'm seeing some distant lightning from some storms in the mountains, currently. They are actually drifting toward me at the moment. Not sure if they will survive with the loss of daytime heating, but a nice light show, nonetheless.

Yeah this looks like it would be a good one:

May Severe Weather - Page 18 2zsxufd

Middle TN getting a good soaker:

May Severe Weather - Page 18 Ae1xq8

Better rumblings over at the Mississippi River:

May Severe Weather - Page 18 J0gt1s

Not much in the way of hail that I'm seeing tonight though.

by **cliftown04** 2012-05-06, 10:00 pm

Not worried about the wind or hail at this point. Bring on the rain! I am not a fan of watering the garden this early in the season. If it rains hard enough maybe it will even wash some of the darn bugs off my squash plants. Has anyone else had earlier than normal problems with bugs in the garden?

by **Adam2014** 2012-05-07, 7:09 am

The WRF looks very weak with the band of rain coming through, I hope it is wrong we needs some rain around my area. I don't expect the storms to be severe though.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-07, 8:19 am

A little rotation on some hailers in Arkansas. Nothing warned yet though.

May Severe Weather - Page 18 166nr6h

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-07, 8:24 am

Adam2014 wrote:The WRF looks very weak with the band of rain coming through, I hope it is wrong we needs some rain around my area. I don't expect the storms to be severe though.

For areas struggling with dryness & moderate drought, I don't think this system will reverse the trend and end the dry spell, but every little bit helps. Some will probably do better than others.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-07, 11:17 am

Decent slug of moisture moving across the state but the WRF suggests it's going to break apart as it comes east. Hoping many can get a good soaking out of it.

May Severe Weather - Page 18 1zy8100

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-07, 11:55 am

Some showers/t-showers dotting GA right now--moving north or northwest toward TN. Any storms that pop in the mountains will move north into the Great TN Valley again today.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-07, 1:13 pm

Looks like southwest/southern middle TN getting most of the rain with the current slug of moisture. North of I-40, not much is happening at the moment.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-07, 1:18 pm

Looks like Bruce's squall line did form, just south of us. Smile

This business coming up from Georgia has my attention:

May Severe Weather - Page 18 118jcqv

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-07, 1:50 pm

Yeah, that area of showers & thundershowers heading in the general direction of Knoxville, and points eastward toward the mountains.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-07, 2:12 pm

Had a 5 minute frog strangler here near Chestnut Hill. Really poured for a short time. Still raining, but slacking off now.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-07, 2:17 pm

It would be nice to not have to water the garden today. Looks like I might get my wish.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-07, 2:31 pm

Looks like southwest Knox County about to get it right now. Some pretty good rain cells showing up, too.

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