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May Severe Weather

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-06, 7:24 am

Morning everyone. It was clear when I looked out at the megamoon this morning around 5 a.m.. Now, I'm surrounded by dense fog. I have a feeling the lake has something to do with it. It's as thick as pea soup. potstir

MRX thinks that best chance of any storm is near the NC border, or far southeast TN today.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG DEW POINT AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS BOUNDARY FROM NW TN TO NE AL TO N SC. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE SE POSSIBLE AFFECTING SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF SE TN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NC TODAY AND MAY MOVE INTO THE TN MOUNTAINS WITH NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG SOUTHERN AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM READINGS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF THE EXTENDED WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MRX CWA FOR LIKELY POPS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCATIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-06, 8:10 am

a nice broad area of slight risk out for tomorrow over parts of the south and ohio valley... not looking for anything major... but looking like a nice squall line late monday with a marginal wind threat for us . gee , at least its something... best shear looks nor up into the ohio valley were they have a better chance of seeing some iso super cells. beer

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-06, 8:31 am

I'll take it and run with it!!! beer
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-06, 9:56 am

Im not really seeing any organized squall line...more like a jumbled mess..lol

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-06, 11:25 am

Slight change in today's forecast. Could be some isolated pop up storms outside the mountains...per MRX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...APPEARS THERE MAY BE BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
TODAY THAN EXPECTED AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION OUTSIDE WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECAST...SO WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL
ZONES
. WILL ALSO RAISE MOST MAX TEMPS A BIT. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME
TWEAKS MAINLY TO SKY AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.


It definitely is muggy outside...
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-06, 12:54 pm

Toot wrote:Im not really seeing any organized squall line...more like a jumbled mess..lol
i guess i should have made it more clearer... more for west tennessee on the squall line type. pals

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-06, 1:23 pm

I dont see anything I would call a squall line but that word is quite subjective...I see more of a broke down and crippled QLCS



WW WRF


The NAM is pretty much the same

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-06, 5:32 pm

I just need some organized rain of some sort and it looks like we will get it.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-06, 6:24 pm

LOL at Toot and his broken down QLCS.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-06, 6:43 pm

Looks like fun things are going on in middle TN. Hoping the east can get some action eventually.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by chaser2b on 2012-05-06, 9:01 pm

I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the nice storms we had going on. Looks like Nashville may have got a decent hail storm. My girlfriend who lives a little southward of me in White House also said there was some quarter size hail at her house. All I saw was some much needed heavy rain, and some moderate wind gusts.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-06, 9:19 pm

I'm seeing some distant lightning from some storms in the mountains, currently. They are actually drifting toward me at the moment. Not sure if they will survive with the loss of daytime heating, but a nice light show, nonetheless.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-06, 9:30 pm

WxFreak wrote:I'm seeing some distant lightning from some storms in the mountains, currently. They are actually drifting toward me at the moment. Not sure if they will survive with the loss of daytime heating, but a nice light show, nonetheless.

Yeah this looks like it would be a good one:



Middle TN getting a good soaker:



Better rumblings over at the Mississippi River:



Not much in the way of hail that I'm seeing tonight though.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by cliftown04 on 2012-05-06, 10:00 pm

Not worried about the wind or hail at this point. Bring on the rain! I am not a fan of watering the garden this early in the season. If it rains hard enough maybe it will even wash some of the darn bugs off my squash plants. Has anyone else had earlier than normal problems with bugs in the garden?

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-07, 7:09 am

The WRF looks very weak with the band of rain coming through, I hope it is wrong we needs some rain around my area. I don't expect the storms to be severe though.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-07, 8:19 am

A little rotation on some hailers in Arkansas. Nothing warned yet though.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-07, 8:24 am

Adam2014 wrote:The WRF looks very weak with the band of rain coming through, I hope it is wrong we needs some rain around my area. I don't expect the storms to be severe though.

For areas struggling with dryness & moderate drought, I don't think this system will reverse the trend and end the dry spell, but every little bit helps. Some will probably do better than others.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-07, 11:17 am

Decent slug of moisture moving across the state but the WRF suggests it's going to break apart as it comes east. Hoping many can get a good soaking out of it.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-07, 11:55 am

Some showers/t-showers dotting GA right now--moving north or northwest toward TN. Any storms that pop in the mountains will move north into the Great TN Valley again today.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-07, 1:13 pm

Looks like southwest/southern middle TN getting most of the rain with the current slug of moisture. North of I-40, not much is happening at the moment.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-07, 1:18 pm

Looks like Bruce's squall line did form, just south of us. Smile



This business coming up from Georgia has my attention:

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-07, 1:50 pm

Yeah, that area of showers & thundershowers heading in the general direction of Knoxville, and points eastward toward the mountains.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-07, 2:12 pm

Had a 5 minute frog strangler here near Chestnut Hill. Really poured for a short time. Still raining, but slacking off now.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-07, 2:17 pm

It would be nice to not have to water the garden today. Looks like I might get my wish.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-07, 2:31 pm

Looks like southwest Knox County about to get it right now. Some pretty good rain cells showing up, too.
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Re: May Severe Weather

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