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May Severe Weather

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-10, 8:17 am

Parched areas of west Texas getting a much needed soaking this morning. I'm sure they are thrilled to see La Nina bite the dust, so they will have less of it (dust) to deal with.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-11, 9:01 am

It's looking like at least west TN might get some much needed rain Sunday into Monday.



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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-11, 10:45 am

MRX long term AFD states we could see some boomers early next week:
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING SOUTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FORECAST THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MORE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FOR MID-WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.


The contrast between this spring and last spring is amazing. Feels like we're on a different planet this go around. Earth on Prozac. I'm sure there is some action somewhere in the world, just not here.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-17, 6:10 pm

Starting to see signs of a possible more orgainzed event near the end of the month...the 27th-29th timeframe. Just some of the ensembles and the euro are showing the possibility...have to see how models trend with this

smoke

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-18, 7:05 am

Anything to get rid of this already stagnant air would be good. Ever see a stagnant pond? We are now breathing the equivalent in air. puke
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-18, 5:41 pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
539 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KNOXVILLE TO FARRAGUT...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LENOIR CITY...LOUDON...OAK RIDGE...FARRAGUT...OLIVER SPRINGS... KARNS AND BRADBURY.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-18, 6:11 pm

Whoa. I'm under a warning now. I can see the huge top of this storm cloud, and already hear the thunder.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIGEON FORGE...OR 11 MILES EAST OF
SEVIERVILLE...AND MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
SEVIERVILLE...DANDRIDGE...PIGEON FORGE...BIRD CROSSING...HARRISBURG
AND MCMAHAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-18, 6:18 pm

After observing the structure of this storm, the cloud already seems to be spreading out in an anvil, and I don't see evidence of updrafts(strong building thunderheads). I'm not sure if it will last long enough to get here. It's a pretty small cell, and could go "poof" at any time. popcorn
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-18, 7:15 pm

It went poof. lapat
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-18, 8:49 pm

I took some pics of approaching and departing thunderstorms. The red sky made for great pictures tonight but there is alot of trees around here that hamper the view

Nothing spectacular.. but pretty none the less!





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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-19, 7:29 am

For some reason I don't see the pics, Tooter. stoned
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-19, 7:33 am

Mrx says less coverage of storms today. Guess I have no excuse not to tackle the lawn mad

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AS WEAK UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN TAFS GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD UNCERTAIN. LOOKS LIKE TRI OR TYS MAY SEE SOME FOG...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AND KEEP ALL SITES MAINLY VFR.
They state drier air being advected into the area from the northeast as the cause for less popcorn storms.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-25, 6:10 pm

This is the system before the possible outbreak system...they are about 2-3 days apart. This one just started looking more organized and further south on the models today. The NAO is bringing the stormtrack further south which would make for more SVR WX producing systems.

Got to keep an eye out on this one too

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-25, 8:52 pm

The Midwest has had some Tornado warnings from this particular storm system. Pretty strong system just needs to be further south like you said.

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Re: May Severe Weather

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