May Severe Weather
+16
Dyersburg Weather
chaser2b
John1122
BethD
Math/Met
WxFreak
Reb
Grandpa Nasty
Homemommy
andyhb
Vanster67
Matthew
Adam2014
Toot
Stovepipe
tennessee storm09
20 posters
Page 4 of 20
Page 4 of 20 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 12 ... 20
Re: May Severe Weather
Some pretty bad storms right there...
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: May Severe Weather
Toot I really think tomorrow needs to be watched more closely....
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: May Severe Weather
What has you thinking that Adam?...I really haven't been paying attention to this system on the models.
Re: May Severe Weather
Well first of all this is a pretty vigorous upper level low, we have a ton of instability but not that much shear. If we could get some shear we could have some problems. Another thing that I noted is that they were not expecting a tornado outbreak in Texas today...Toot wrote:What has you thinking that Adam?...I really haven't been paying attention to this system on the models.
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: May Severe Weather
actually adam there is just enough deep layer shear present to support a few super cells tomorrow afternoon around the tennessee valley... i wouldnt be suprised to see a couple of tornado warnings get issued tomorrow for a few of the cells that get going... especially late afternoon.... if we could get some more low level shear to the ground it would be a different story... but a nice little slight risk day shaping up for us tomorrowAdam2014 wrote:Well first of all this is a pretty vigorous upper level low, we have a ton of instability but not that much shear. If we could get some shear we could have some problems. Another thing that I noted is that they were not expecting a tornado outbreak in Texas today...Toot wrote:What has you thinking that Adam?...I really haven't been paying attention to this system on the models.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: May Severe Weather
Well the ULL could create a little shear but probably not enough!tennessee storm09 wrote:actually adam there is just enough deep layer shear present to support a few super cells tomorrow afternoon around the tennessee valley... i wouldnt be suprised to see a couple of tornado warnings get issued tomorrow for a few of the cells that get going... especially late afternoon.... if we could get some more low level shear to the ground it would be a different story... but a nice little slight risk day shaping up for us tomorrowAdam2014 wrote:Well first of all this is a pretty vigorous upper level low, we have a ton of instability but not that much shear. If we could get some shear we could have some problems. Another thing that I noted is that they were not expecting a tornado outbreak in Texas today...Toot wrote:What has you thinking that Adam?...I really haven't been paying attention to this system on the models.
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: May Severe Weather
Frank Strait says lookout tomorrow
From his FB site
From his FB site
I'm not going to be able to post again tonight ... but I want to make sure y'all are aware that this storm that caused the tornadoes in Texas will likely cause more bad storms and at least a few tornadoes as it heads slowly east through the rest of the week. The Tennessee Valley looks to be the main area of concern tomorrow, then the Carolinas on Thursday. See y'all again Friday night.
Re: May Severe Weather
Although surface maps dont show a warm front over the Arklamiss area Radar data suggests that there is one there. Some supercells seem to be firing along it and this may be a key feature as this progresses very slowly eastward.
Surface low convection clearly seperated from upper low convection
Surface low convection clearly seperated from upper low convection
Re: May Severe Weather
Forbes talked about that on TWC he said that was his area of most concern right between the two .
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: May Severe Weather
just freaking awsomeToot wrote:Checkout the flying semi truck trailers in Texas
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: May Severe Weather
00z GFS shows some pretty meaty stuff into the later range around day 9-10.
andyhb- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 84
Join date : 2012-03-26
Re: May Severe Weather
We had some exceptionally heavy rain today, fairly strong winds but most impressive was just the incredible amount of very close cloud to ground lightning. I'm used to seeing a fair number of strikes on the mountain tops around me, but this was hitting frequently down in town today. Knocked power out for a while in a good part of the area. The other big thing was the incredibly heavy rain. Over 2 inches in about 20 minutes.
John1122- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: May Severe Weather
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED APR 04 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN VA INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ERN NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE U.S. INTO CANADA TODAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA FLANKED BY AMPLIFYING TROUGHS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NERN STATES. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW MIGRATING EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...REACHING
AR/SRN MO BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING
EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR SEWD THROUGH KY/WV
TO VA/NC THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD
THROUGH KY TO NRN TN...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT MOVES SWD THROUGH VA
INTO NC. A PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
WLY 60 AND 85 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS...RESPECTIVELY...WILL MOVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS N TX TO NRN LA/SRN AR BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGIONS OF THESE JETS AND ATTENDANT
TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SEVERAL ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM E/SE TX INTO LA/SRN MS
SHOULD BE INVOF THE NWRN GULF COAST BY 12Z TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY AND
ATTENDANT EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO OZARKS WILL RESULT IN GREAT UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCH
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. WEAK...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE...
WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TUESDAY
SHOULD BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZES. ZONES OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE CLOSED
LOW/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EWD WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY. IF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND/OR FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY/STORM INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN
HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED.
FARTHER N INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...LOWER 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT ENEWD INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND NERN EXTENT OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT THAN WAS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY IN THE
MID MS/OH VALLEYS...SUCH THAT ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
ACROSS THIS PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
...SERN VA THROUGH ERN NC...
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH ERN NC INTO
SERN VA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. THOUGH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD ESEWD WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE E-W FRONT ACROSS VA. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
ENHANCED BY PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING NERN U.S.
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
...CNTRL AND ERN OK THROUGH SRN KS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND -20 C/ NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..PETERS/ROGERS.. 04/04/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED APR 04 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN VA INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ERN NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE U.S. INTO CANADA TODAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA FLANKED BY AMPLIFYING TROUGHS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NERN STATES. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW MIGRATING EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...REACHING
AR/SRN MO BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING
EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR SEWD THROUGH KY/WV
TO VA/NC THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD
THROUGH KY TO NRN TN...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT MOVES SWD THROUGH VA
INTO NC. A PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
WLY 60 AND 85 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS...RESPECTIVELY...WILL MOVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS N TX TO NRN LA/SRN AR BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGIONS OF THESE JETS AND ATTENDANT
TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SEVERAL ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM E/SE TX INTO LA/SRN MS
SHOULD BE INVOF THE NWRN GULF COAST BY 12Z TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY AND
ATTENDANT EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO OZARKS WILL RESULT IN GREAT UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCH
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. WEAK...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE...
WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TUESDAY
SHOULD BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZES. ZONES OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE CLOSED
LOW/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EWD WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY. IF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND/OR FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY/STORM INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN
HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED.
FARTHER N INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...LOWER 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT ENEWD INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND NERN EXTENT OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT THAN WAS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY IN THE
MID MS/OH VALLEYS...SUCH THAT ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
ACROSS THIS PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
...SERN VA THROUGH ERN NC...
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH ERN NC INTO
SERN VA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. THOUGH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD ESEWD WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE E-W FRONT ACROSS VA. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
ENHANCED BY PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING NERN U.S.
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
...CNTRL AND ERN OK THROUGH SRN KS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND -20 C/ NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..PETERS/ROGERS.. 04/04/2012
Vanster67- Admin
- Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: May Severe Weather
you got that andy... i just got up and was eating breakfast when i saw that, nearly choked... april has finally shown up friends.andyhb wrote:00z GFS shows some pretty meaty stuff into the later range around day 9-10.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: May Severe Weather
Not to sound like a weather weenie or anything, but I need to have some hail/wind or something today. Even some Fundering would be nice..
Vanster67- Admin
- Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: May Severe Weather
Vanster67 wrote:Not to sound like a weather weenie or anything, but I need to have some hail/wind or something today. Even some Fundering would be nice..
Mr. Weenie, you can have the hail. I don't want it.
I'll take some funder and a dynamo lightning show. That would be aight.
Re: May Severe Weather
It all depends on where the warm front and cold front set up. If you are in that little section where they are close then you could have some pretty severe storms.
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: May Severe Weather
Homemommy wrote:Vanster67 wrote:Not to sound like a weather weenie or anything, but I need to have some hail/wind or something today. Even some Fundering would be nice..
Mr. Weenie, you can have the hail. I don't want it.
I'll take some funder and a dynamo lightning show. That would be aight.
This.
Bring it on!
Re: May Severe Weather
Small hail would be allright. Nothing damaging. I am due for a good lightning and Funder show. I remember about 4 years ago, when Regina and I were living just outside of Etowah, TN when a thunderstorm hit, the wind was not bad, no hail but the lightning and thunder was the craziest I had ever seen or experienced. Continous lightning/Funder. It was awesome and terrifying at the same time. We had ran to the garage to get the dogs, and ended up staying in the garage as we were to afraid to try and make a run for the house. Overall, still pretty wild/coolHomemommy wrote:Vanster67 wrote:Not to sound like a weather weenie or anything, but I need to have some hail/wind or something today. Even some Fundering would be nice..
Mr. Weenie, you can have the hail. I don't want it.
I'll take some funder and a dynamo lightning show. That would be aight.
Vanster67- Admin
- Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: May Severe Weather
Homemommy wrote:Vanster67 wrote:Not to sound like a weather weenie or anything, but I need to have some hail/wind or something today. Even some Fundering would be nice..
Mr. Weenie, you can have the hail. I don't want it.
I'll take some funder and a dynamo lightning show. That would be aight.
Homemommy, if you want to borrow my glasses, all you have to do is ask??
Vanster67- Admin
- Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: May Severe Weather
Interesting little "dot" of a storm that just fired north of Nashville.
chaser2b- Member
- Posts : 11
Join date : 2012-04-03
Re: May Severe Weather
chaser2b wrote:Interesting little "dot" of a storm that just fired north of Nashville.
Looks like mostly pulse type storms today...and welcome to the forum Chaser
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