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Is winter over? Very weird pattern going on!!

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Is winter over? Very weird pattern going on!!

Post by Toot on 2011-12-08, 3:05 pm

I wanted to talk a little about the pattern of the last 45-50 days. The fall/winter pattern that has developed is very unusual and is not behaving in any form or fashion the way it should. During October you had a raging negative PNA which in theory should have torched us...but we come out tempwise well below normal for that month. During the month of November the NAO and AO went positive... but the southeast managed to score an anomalous snow storm in November.

The Arctic oscillation (AO) is raging positive and at near record levels...but as you can feel it's still decently cold outside. On top of all that we are in a La Nina ENSO state... but yet there is a very active and visible El Nino like subtropical Jet stream affraid Despite La Nina conditions that say we should be warm and dry... we have actually been more cold and wet. We have been able to stay near or below normal despite unfavorable teleconnection indices and a pesky little southeast ridge..also there seems to be an abundance of strong cutoff lows this fall/winter.

Those that say winter is in trouble are totally looking way too much at numbers and teleconnection indices. They're not taking synoptics and verified data into account. As we get closer to a more climatalogical favored time period for winter weather... I see no reason why there wont be nice winter events with plenty of cold air. This fall/winter so far has been very wet compared to most and there has already been two snow events pretty far south for this time of year. We're getting closer to the real winter season here and when we have a nice arctic airmass in place I can totally see one of those big bowling ball cutoff lows dumping snow in a very widespread fashion despite a positive AO/NAO if that is still the case.

Our winter will happen...it's just not going to happen the way we have gotten used to it happening the last two years. Very Happy




Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-14, 1:21 pm; edited 5 times in total

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Re: Is winter over? Very weird pattern going on!!

Post by Guest on 2011-12-08, 4:16 pm

Shew.... when I saw the title of the thread without checking who had made it, I chuckled... then I saw it was you who made it, and my heart skipped a beat... then I read it all and I am back to neutral again haha. Good title to get people to read the thread though!

I must say, I agree with this analysis, though we do need that SE ridge to get the heck out of here if we are to see any kind of snowstorm or anything of the like. LRC theory is a perfect thing to study up on for this Winter. When you get a ton of rain from low pressures and clippers and the like in the Fall, then it usually translates over to the same track/precip in the Winter as well, so long as temps coordinate with the systems, which present themselves as problems many times.

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Re: Is winter over? Very weird pattern going on!!

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-08, 5:20 pm

Unless some kind of blocking comes along we are going to be stuck in GLC mode with cold chasing moisture as the fronts pass. That kind of setup favors Middle and especially West Tennessee. There isn't any real terrain to slow the cold from spilling into those areas like there is in East Tennessee.

Hopefully we can break out of the current pattern before too long, but it's been going so long now that I am more worried that the PNA is going to go negative and we are going to torch for a while.

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Re: Is winter over? Very weird pattern going on!!

Post by Toot on 2011-12-08, 5:28 pm

John1122 wrote:Unless some kind of blocking comes along we are going to be stuck in GLC mode with cold chasing moisture as the fronts pass. That kind of setup favors Middle and especially West Tennessee. There isn't any real terrain to slow the cold from spilling into those areas like there is in East Tennessee.

Hopefully we can break out of the current pattern before too long, but it's been going so long now that I am more worried that the PNA is going to go negative and we are going to torch for a while.

John...there are winters where the NAO was mostly positive with above average snowfall here in east Tennessee..not a whole lot of them but they are there. But Like you... I would love the negative NAO to develop and I still think it will at some point. I wouldnt worry about the PNA... it was raging negative back in the fall and we still didnt torch

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Re: Is winter over? Very weird pattern going on!!

Post by Toot on 2011-12-08, 7:57 pm

We need to watch the Polar Vortex up near the Great Lakes..the lows will be in the teens and 20's in east Tennessee for a few days...yet the PNA NAO/AO is unfavorable. Just goes to show you...you dont need them to get cold air in here. The Polar vortex can take control of almost every aspect of our weather and it may become a very important feature this winter

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