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Possible April Freeze

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-16, 6:09 pm

I think the models are hinting at a late season snow storm for much of the Appalachians. At least thats my take on the powerful LPS that looks to be a late season inland runner around the 22nd-23rd timeframe.

rock on

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-16, 6:54 pm

I'm not one for snow this late in spring. Would rather save it up for next fall/winter.
Seasons sure seem out of wack. Winter was so warm; we had 70's and 80's in late February and March, and now it gets cold as we approach May. yikes
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by snowdog on 2012-04-16, 8:04 pm

Toot wrote:I think the models are hinting at a late season snow storm for much of the Appalachians. At least thats my take on the powerful LPS that looks to be a late season inland runner around the 22nd-23rd timeframe.

rock on

I'd love to have that Low track in the middle of winter...the one shown on the Euro.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-16, 11:21 pm

Wake me up when it's time to plant maters.

flower
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-17, 8:12 am

Didn't have a chance to look at models, but according to Mike Whitcher this morning, a frost/freeze is looking less likely next week. I guess the models have backed off the extreme cold solution they were previously showing?
I don't mind the cool weather. It can stay that way--just don't want a freeze at this point. Managed to get by--by the skin of my teeth last week. What a Face
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-17, 8:20 am

The euro backed off because the upper low got cutoff but the gfs and ensembles still show a colder scenario

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by jmundie on 2012-04-17, 8:49 am

snowdog wrote:
Toot wrote:I think the models are hinting at a late season snow storm for much of the Appalachians. At least thats my take on the powerful LPS that looks to be a late season inland runner around the 22nd-23rd timeframe.

rock on

I'd love to have that Low track in the middle of winter...the one shown on the Euro.

This - when I saw the 12z euro run, I was just thinking how I'd be peeing myself if it were January

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-17, 8:51 am

Models have certainly trended wetter with this system, especially for southeast/far east Tennessee. I would assume because it gets cut off from the main flow, and several waves of rain move through.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-17, 5:16 pm

Did anyone see the 12z CMC today...lol

Before it forms an EPIC cutoff low...the trough goes highly negative tilt and spawns a VERY powerful surface cyclone at 988mb sneaky



Then it cuts off at h5 and forms one of the biggest upper lows that I have ever seen modeled..lol its huge... and making a TON of cold air and at one point it tries to close off 5 contours at 500mb





Then it becomes a textbook cold core low...lol rock on



I'll have some of what the Canadian model is smoking please!! Smile

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by snowdog on 2012-04-17, 5:33 pm

Toot wrote:Did anyone see the 12z CMC today...lol

Yeah, it gave me a good chuckle today. I guess if you can't have winter during winter months, there's always April.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-17, 6:13 pm

If only it was winter again. Hard to believe that run when the NAO is weakly positive right now. It's trending lower, though.

Most of the discussions I've read today have trended warmer. But, still you never know in April.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-17, 6:36 pm

The Nogaps sort of agrees with the CMC with the big powerhouse low but it never becomes cutoff..both of em crash thickness values however.


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-17, 6:44 pm

Nice eye candy, but wrong season. console

Climatology argues against such a trough, but it also argues against the mild February/March we just had, so what does it know?
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-17, 7:04 pm

WxFreak wrote:Nice eye candy, but wrong season. console

Climatology argues against such a trough, but it also argues against the mild February/March we just had, so what does it know?

Lol...Its the CMC and its crazy uncle... Nogaps...im sure they're both totally wasted somewhere together right now Razz

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-17, 7:14 pm

It would be awesome to see something like this again in about 6 months. Here's to the winter of 2012-13. May it not suck as bad as this one... smoke
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by snowdog on 2012-04-17, 9:08 pm

WxFreak wrote:It would be awesome to see something like this again in about 6 months. Here's to the winter of 2012-13. May it not suck as bad as this one... smoke

If next winter sucks as bad as this one I'm joining Stove's side of the AGW debate. sauce

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-17, 11:04 pm

snowdog wrote:
WxFreak wrote:It would be awesome to see something like this again in about 6 months. Here's to the winter of 2012-13. May it not suck as bad as this one... smoke

If next winter sucks as bad as this one I'm joining Stove's side of the AGW debate. sauce

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 7:11 am

snowdog wrote:
WxFreak wrote:It would be awesome to see something like this again in about 6 months. Here's to the winter of 2012-13. May it not suck as bad as this one... smoke

If next winter sucks as bad as this one I'm joining Stove's side of the AGW debate. sauce

It was my pleasure to play peace maker and finally bring u 2 together. lmao rock on rock on
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-18, 8:46 am

Well..look who joined the nogaps /cmc party

The Dr himself



Thats around 980mb yikes rock on





There is actually heavy wet snow in alot of eastern TN with that powerhouse...That is a VERY strong storm that would probably do some wind damage and clock the mountains with feet of snow...this is really starting to get interesting. I know its odd but stranger things have happened. The GFS also trended in this direction

HPC
WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING
RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW
YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY ONWARD ASONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND DRYACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by snowdog on 2012-04-18, 9:57 am

You always talk about loving those big deep cyclones. Looks like you may get one here.

Also Crazy Uncle NoGaps isn't as crazy as he used to be. Used to, you would find him passed out naked in the front yard on a Saturday morning...but now he has cleaned up his act and those moments are few and far between. It's a semi-decent respectable model now.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-18, 10:00 am

Toot wrote:
There is actually heavy wet snow in alot of eastern TN with that powerhouse...That is a VERY strong storm that would probably do some wind damage and clock the mountains with feet of snow...this is really starting to get interesting. I know its odd but stranger things have happened. The GFS also trended in this direction

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by jmundie on 2012-04-18, 10:24 am

This is straight up scary... weirder things have happened... but this will be historic if we get an apps snowstorm this late in April. And it would likely be a heavy, wet, wind driven snow.

And just since it hasn't been thrown out there before, minus the cold, it does look a bit like another storm....


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by jmundie on 2012-04-18, 10:29 am

Toot -

Have you see how much snow the Euro wxunderground accum maps are predicting for your area.

wash

It might be worth killing all the plants. Some of the mountains would see 2 feet of snow with this system. historic.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-18, 10:38 am

sneaky

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by jmundie on 2012-04-18, 10:55 am


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