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Possible April Freeze

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 11:00 am

It appears that ole man Winter decided to save a cannon ball for one last shot across the bow of Spring. Is it just a warning shot for next year? Or could it sink the ship? Only time will tell.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-18, 11:04 am

ya...i seen that mundie...Ive seen a foot of snow in april before and im talking about unelevated snow....1987 was the year and it was around 80 degrees the day before it happened...unlikely as it is...its totally possible


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by jmundie on 2012-04-18, 11:14 am

WxFreak wrote:It appears that ole man Winter decided to save a cannon ball for one last shot across the bow of Spring. Is it just a warning shot for next year? Or could it sink the ship? Only time will tell.

Its a bookend winter. Remember the massive October snowstorm in the interior east in 2011. Now the season will finish up with another interior snowstorm. Both storms coming with trees fully leafed. Can you say power outages?

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 11:20 am

jmundie wrote:
WxFreak wrote:It appears that ole man Winter decided to save a cannon ball for one last shot across the bow of Spring. Is it just a warning shot for next year? Or could it sink the ship? Only time will tell.

Its a bookend winter. Remember the massive October snowstorm in the interior east in 2011. Now the season will finish up with another interior snowstorm. Both storms coming with trees fully leafed. Can you say power outages?

Was just about to mention this seems eerily similar to the Oct snowstorm that crushed the northeast before the trees lost their leaves. I'm hoping this one is a bust. The damage to the electrical infrastructure would take months to fix with all the trees falling on powerlines. It would not be an enjoyable experience.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-18, 11:21 am

Accuweather's Henry Margusity:

I know there is talk of a major Appalachian Mountain snowstorm next week. I think it's very premature to be speculating on such an event given that the models are once again going in different directions. The NAO shows some trends toward negative next week, but I like to see a few more runs of the NAO forecasts to even get excited about the prospects of snow. I do think a trough is coming into the East and it will turn colder, and I do think that the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire into Maine have the best opportunity for snow, but to make statements that a major snowstorm in the Appalachians is coming next week based on one run of the European model is just pure speculation right now and a very low probability event.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 11:30 am

And I've yet to see any major NWS office latch onto the extreme event portrayed in some models. I do hear some saying they are taking a "wait and see" attitude. JKL mentions possible flurries in the high mountains at some point as the low pulls away.
Such a storm, if it were to occur, would be devastating to say the least. That's why I'm hoping it's just a parting shot of Winter sayin' "see ya next year--and I'll have my revenge when I return."
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by jmundie on 2012-04-18, 12:03 pm

WxFreak wrote:And I've yet to see any major NWS office latch onto the extreme event portrayed in some models. I do hear some saying they are taking a "wait and see" attitude. JKL mentions possible flurries in the high mountains at some point as the low pulls away.
Such a storm, if it were to occur, would be devastating to say the least. That's why I'm hoping it's just a parting shot of Winter sayin' "see ya next year--and I'll have my revenge when I return."

Well of course not. The statistical anomaly of a 6-12 inch (or more) snowstorm in the southern apps at the end of april is understood by everyone here. No forecaster in their right mind would start forecasting it.

Now - if we're still looking at a similar scenario by this weekend, and/or if the gfs starts coming around, it will at least be mentioned in the AFDs for the forecast offices in the affected area.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 12:50 pm

Noticed the QPF forecast for this event has taken on a different configuration. If it verifies, going to be a very tight gradient west to east from very little precip, to a ton of it--whatever form it falls in.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Reb on 2012-04-18, 1:07 pm

what the hell is going on in this thread sneaky

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 1:25 pm

Guess we should retitle this thing. Possible April Apocalypse.

And no, I don't think it's really going to happen. Suspect scared Here's hoping, anyway.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 3:03 pm

No real change in MRX's thinking for the time being. It's still a waiting game.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT SUCH THAT BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HY5 TROF WILL BE SHARPENING UP LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MIDLAND TX TO GREEN BAY WI THURSDAY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF IT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE H5 TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SWATH OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TX TO THE GREAT LAKES. BY SATURDAY MORNING...AN H5 CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF. LOCALLY...DURING THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME IS WHEN THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL APPEAR IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO THEN. BUT IT IS AFTER SATURDAY THAT THE FORECAST GETS MURKY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DROP A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF DROPS THIS ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS SUCH THAT THE EC KEEPS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA THROUGH MONDAY WHEREAS THE GFS OPENS UP THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW AS A NEW ONE DEVELOPS OVER OH/PA. THE EC VERSION KEEPS WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH TUES WHILE THE GFS GENERALLY DRIES US OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE LAST WEEK...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
I sure don't envy a forecaster's job with a system like this one. So many variables to analyze, and no model consensus.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 3:59 pm

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 12Z SAT APR 21 2012 - 12Z WED APR 25 2012

...GULF/EAST COAST CYCLONE TO BRING WET/POTENTIALLY SNOWY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST...

FINAL...

THE AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTED THE MORNING BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE DAYS 3-4 FORECAST. WHILE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THE RECENT TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...FAVORS THE 00Z GFS IDEA OF TRACKING A SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE LATEST AGREEMENT...THERE ARE STILL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DAY 5-7 FORECASTS.

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY ONWARD AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

ROTH/GERHARDT


Just noticed...this seems to be a rehashing of the same thing they said this morning.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-18, 4:28 pm

Euro sort of calmed its tune a little bit while the cmc and nogaps are still advertising a very powerful system. The 12z gfs ensembles are coming into stark agreement with another frost/freeze near day 5 with lows 10-20 degrees below average and possibly colder



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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Homemommy on 2012-04-18, 4:29 pm

Winter just having some more fun at our expense. I don't believe a word of it. It's like when people go to hand you something and then they yank it back right before you can grab it. Or when you go to get in a car and right before you can step in the car, they pull forward real fast.

Yep. I call this a sike.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-18, 5:22 pm

For Knoxville:
Average last freeze.....March 29
Average last frost.....April 9
From what I see, the latest 32F reading was recorded at TYS on May 4, 1986.
The latest hard freeze (below 32F) at TYS was recorded on April 24th with a low of 28F (also 1986). Boy, that was a cold spring.



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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by John1122 on 2012-04-19, 1:50 am

While I doubt this happens, there was a nine inch snowfall here in early May in the 1910s. My grandpa talked about it breaking down knee high corn. So its possible in April.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-19, 5:12 am

My grandma, who was from an area east of Harlan, Ky.(Holmes Mill), told me several times that one of the heaviest snows she remembered happened in early May. When she first told me about it, I thought she might not be remembering correctly. But after looking into it, I found out late April/early May snows did happen in the Kentucky mountains quite often back then. That's why my grandma always said to not put out your garden until after May 15th.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-19, 5:22 am

Latest from MRX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
329 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WITH RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE MRX CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A WARMING TREND PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH FOR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD HAS RISEN TO ABOUT AVERAGE. TREND IS FASTER WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z ECMWF...MODELS HANDLE THE CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH SIMILARLY. WILL LEAN TOWARD A NON-ECMWF BLEND. WILL STILL CARRY LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY AS APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP MAY GO NORTH AND SOUTH OF US. WITH EXPECTED FASTER EXIT OF SYSTEM WILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY EAST. WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ANY OF THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OUT THAT FAR WILL GO DRY FOR THE MON THROUGH WED PERIOD.

Starting to look like even a heavy rain event out of the cards now.


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-19, 5:37 am

JKL takes a slightly different view:

THIS PROGRESSION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT THAT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE EAST AND THE EVOLUTION OF ANY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION IN SOME OF THE ECMWF RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT IS SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN MAY BE BEST WITH THE UPPER LOW.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-19, 6:19 am

Model madness abounds:
(From HPC):
DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO ABOUND IN THE EAST...WHERE THE 00Z GFS IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH CYCLONE TRACK AND TROUGH PROGRESSION...OUTPACING ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO IT COULD NOT BE USED. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WAS USED FOR SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...DUE TO ISSUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE 00Z UKMET COULD NO LONGER BE USED. BY TUESDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OUTLIER WITH THE DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTHEAST /WHERE IT HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHEAST SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY/ AND HAD MINIMAL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT WITH THE FEATURE MID NEXT WEEK...SO IT WAS NO LONGER USABLE. THIS LEFT THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z GFS PARALLEL/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WERE USED FOR PRESSURES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS LED TO A QUICKER CYCLONE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST CANADA THAN CONTINUITY.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-19, 8:45 am

Looks as if the snow threat for the southern Appalachians has diminished but it was fun watching those models blow up a powerhouse like that. Oh well maybe something like that will happen come winter....lol

Anyways the freeze/frost threat is still there especially for northeast TN. I dont think it will be as intense as the last one but interesting none the less Smile

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-19, 8:55 am

Toot wrote:Looks as if the snow threat for the southern Appalachians has diminished but it was fun watching those models blow up a powerhouse like that. Oh well maybe something like that will happen come winter....lol

Anyways the freeze/frost threat is still there especially for northeast TN. I dont think it will be as intense as the last one but interesting none the less Smile

Yeah, it was interesting to consider the possibility, but hopefully the models won't do this to us all through next winter. (As in throw us a bone, then yank it away again and again and again). yikes

And you know the weather has gotten boring when a touch of frost sounds interesting. Smile

Oh well, we'll take what we get and like it. Twisted Evil
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-19, 9:07 pm

Im still concerned for heavy frost in alot of east TN when I see the ensembles agreeing on temps that far below average. yikes

Todays 12z run


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-19, 9:11 pm

The euro is still playing tricks on people with a major snow storm in the mountains...lolz


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-20, 7:47 am

The GFS is very cold and for a long time too.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

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