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Possible April Freeze

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-20, 8:08 am

Adam2014 wrote:The GFS is very cold and for a long time too.

The 0z ensembles have also trended colder and mountain snow showers in NW flow is now looking likely facepalm



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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-20, 8:15 am

0z euro has a pretty strong system that retrogrades back towards the lakes. These type of retrograding lows are infamous cold air producers. Crazy late in the year for this type of system.





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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-20, 8:55 am

This system has the models trapped in a causality loop (only Star Trek fans will get that one). Anyway, who knows what's gonna happen at this point. yikes
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by snowdog on 2012-04-20, 9:42 am

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:The GFS is very cold and for a long time too.

The 0z ensembles have also trended colder and mountain snow showers in NW flow is now looking likely facepalm


Wow, those are some strong anomalies. Somewhere in the WVa mountains are going to get pounded.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by John1122 on 2012-04-20, 12:18 pm

MRX seems to be avoiding the closed low solution at all costs. They are now tossing every model solution except the NAM which brings in dry high pressure instead of considering the closed low of the gfs and euro.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-20, 12:54 pm

snowdog wrote:
Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:The GFS is very cold and for a long time too.

The 0z ensembles have also trended colder and mountain snow showers in NW flow is now looking likely facepalm


Wow, those are some strong anomalies. Somewhere in the WVa mountains are going to get pounded.

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-20, 5:31 pm

Stove...I get the distinct impression you were the class clown back in the day... Twisted Evil
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-20, 6:22 pm

Our friend, Todd Howell, said the latest computer guidance does bring some moisture into East Tennessee, and with the cold air, areas above 4000 ft could see several inches of snow late Sunday into Monday.

If only I didn't have to work Monday, I would take a road trip to see some late April snow. Hmmm...maybe I could get sick Sunday night....... whistle
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-20, 6:40 pm

Yeah..MRX will need to adjust there central and northern valley lows as they have most areas with a low of nothing colder than 40 degrees. Ive seen enough data to require frost advisories with lows in the middle and high 30's on sunday night/monday morning... which is all you will need for a heavy killing frost.


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-20, 6:46 pm

The gfs also says this will happen mon night/wed morning and maybe a little colder yikes


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-20, 7:02 pm

Yes, I checked the forecast again, and they have me at 41F at the coldest (Sunday/Monday). They also call for "partly cloudy," and winds of 5-10mph. Maybe they are thinking the clouds/wind will keep frost from being widespread. If one of those nights is clear and calm, we'll certainly be colder than 41F.
Guess this is APRIL FROST REDUX. The cold wasn't here when we needed it, now it won't get the H outta here. burn
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 3:00 am

lmao wxfreak Laughing

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 3:08 am

It wouldnt surprise me if leconte got severaql inches and it also wouldnt surprise me to see snow falling in the valley....VERY strong and dynamic retrograding low

cold



Hi res nam low temps



A look at the very strong cold advection for this time of year...this system has basically said climatology??? never heard of it!! pffft

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 12:23 pm

This system as a whole is pretty amazing. The sharpness of the digging trough would be considered deep/strong in the dead winter, much less the last week of April when the jet stream is usually weakening and pulling north toward the Canadian border. Makes me wonder what May may have in store for us (no, I didn't stutter).
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 1:17 pm

WxFreak wrote:This system as a whole is pretty amazing. The sharpness of the digging trough would be considered deep/strong in the dead winter, much less the last week of April when the jet stream is usually weakening and pulling north toward the Canadian border. Makes me wonder what May may have in store for us (no, I didn't stutter).

Its a powerful noreaster type system that is out of place this time of year. Then at 500mb it develops a massive negative tilt. Then the LPS retrogrades and develops into a very powerful H5 cold core ULL. Some notable storms of similar strength are The Great Appalachiam Storm of 1950 but even more so locally. It set an all time record which still stands today for the 24hr snowfall total of 18 inches in Ktown yikes

Now I did a study and a research on this storm an created a wiki article titled The Great Knoxville Snowstorm of 1952

The Great Knoxville Snowstorm of 1952



18 in 24hrs at Ktown in November yikes

Heres the link to wiki article I wrote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia_talk:Articles_for_creation/The_Great_Knoxville_Snowstorm_of_1952

Good read there









The great app storm of 1950 was also a noreaster that retrograded and we all know that was a historic storm. Retrograding storms are massive snow and cold producers rock on



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_November_1950


Here is a nice case study that proves that these deep retrograding lows ar heft cold and snow producers rock on
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/080/mwr-080-11-0227.pdf


I found out there was alot of information on the the Great Appalachian storm of 1950 but I couldnt find much on the Nov 1952 storm. This storm still holds Knoxvilles 24hr snowfall record at around 18 inches, and from the surface maps that I did find after a very detailed search.... I think it was more of an ULL snow as the surface features didnt seem all that impressive but the upper level features seem to be very strong. This snow occured in a deformation band or "wrap around" type snow.

There are so many details that "The Great Appalachian storm of 1950" and what i'm referring to as The Great Knoxville snowstorm of 1952 have in common....these are just some of the more noticeable things to me.

Both storms occured in the early 50's which was at the beginning of a very long and cold phase of the PDO

Both storms occured in November.

Both storms retrograded back towards the Great Lakes.

Both storms occured under La Nina conditions.

Both storms occured during a Negative NAO blocking pattern.

Both storms formed along a strong cold front.

Both storms seemed to get and fetch plenty of moisture southward from the Great Lakes.

Both storms had intense High pressure systems off to their northeast.

Both storms had very intense winds in their western quadrants.

Both storms were enveloped in negatively tilted trough's.


rock on

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 9:42 pm

Awesome bit of info there. Yeah, that was a classic retrograding low--something we haven't seen in awhile. Many classic nor' easters are retrograding lows, but the difference is the great App storm retrograded very far inland, and wasn't just a coastal storm.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 10:07 pm

Actually most shoot up past the coast into Novia Scotia or recurve out to sea ....This is more or a miller type b that retrogrades and fetches GOM before it closes of and makes its on cold air.

In eeast T im going 24 in

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-22, 8:31 am

As you can see cold air advection has started out west


And yeah its gonna be an almost staewide frost tionight/monday am...its also possible that this haapens the following night yikes


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-22, 8:44 am

You think it will be clear enough tonight? I'm hoping we at least keep the clouds. There is also a 40% chance of snizzle (showers/drizzle).

Tomorrow night might be where I end up seeing frost. I usually lose the wind during the night, and if it clears, the temp will have no place to go but down....

Checked Asheville's forecast. They don't mention frost tonight, but they do mention it for tomorrow night. yikes
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-22, 8:46 am

Also here is the gfs for sunday night/mon morning



as you can see some places are already 15 deg below average


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-22, 8:52 am

WxFreak wrote:You think it will be clear enough tonight? I'm hoping we at least keep the clouds. There is also a 40% chance of snizzle (showers/drizzle).

Tomorrow night might be where I end up seeing frost. I usually lose the wind during the night, and if it clears, the temp will have no place to go but down....

Checked Asheville's forecast. They don't mention frost tonight, but they do mention it for tomorrow night. yikes

Well tonight ends at 12...so when I say tonight im actually talking very early am mon. I dont think the clouds or wind will be aproblem

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-22, 10:01 am

Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:You think it will be clear enough tonight? I'm hoping we at least keep the clouds. There is also a 40% chance of snizzle (showers/drizzle).

Tomorrow night might be where I end up seeing frost. I usually lose the wind during the night, and if it clears, the temp will have no place to go but down....

Checked Asheville's forecast. They don't mention frost tonight, but they do mention it for tomorrow night. yikes

Well tonight ends at 12...so when I say tonight im actually talking very early am mon. I dont think the clouds or wind will be aproblem

I gotcha. Cover the maters. Cover the beans. Frost is coming. Remember ur greens.
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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-22, 10:03 am

Low 20's in the Mtns...High 20's in NE-TN low to mid 30's in central east TN and high 30s in the southern valley all with clear skies and light winds


HEAVY Killing Frost is more than likely

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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-22, 1:49 pm

Down to 986 mb as it lashes the mountains with upslope NW flow snaow..I wouldnt be surprised to see snow showers in the valley either


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Re: Possible April Freeze

Post by Toot on 2012-04-22, 2:06 pm

Finally they come to there senses...Ive been talking about this current frost/freeze threat for over a week


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1159 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-230000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...
GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...
COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...
DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...
ABINGDON
1159 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 /1059 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012/

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST THIS EVENING AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
30S COMMON BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE FROST OR FREEZES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INCLUDING
THE SMOKYS TONIGHT. THE SNOW FALL WILL BE HEAVY AND MAY RESULT IN
SOME TREE DAMAGE. SOME ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ABOVE 3000 FEET.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.



I WALKED IN OVER THERE AT mrx AND LOOK WHAT i FOUND...NO WONDER THEY CANT GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER

mrx office

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