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April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

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April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Toot on 2012-03-27, 5:39 pm

This system is starting to look much more impressive with a huge warm sector and a very mature cyclone going sub 980mb yikes








Last edited by Toot on 2012-03-28, 4:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Mike Puckett on 2012-03-27, 9:11 pm

Yuuuuup...might be planning a vacation the hell outta here if it's near me lol
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-03-27, 9:34 pm

Mike Puckett wrote:Yuuuuup...might be planning a vacation the hell outta here if it's near me lol
yep mike, looks like april going toget very active man. nice you join the forum. i see u on talk weather, i am tennessee storm chaser over there.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Mike Puckett on 2012-03-27, 9:45 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Mike Puckett wrote:Yuuuuup...might be planning a vacation the hell outta here if it's near me lol
yep mike, looks like april going toget very active man. nice you join the forum. i see u on talk weather, i am tennessee storm chaser over there.

Howdy howdy jocolor I believe it's official - April is my most hated month of the year. Last year tried to kill me the day after my birthday...this year looks like I may be putting the miles on the old blazer. worry
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Toot on 2012-03-27, 9:56 pm

lol at your avatar lmao

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Mike Puckett on 2012-03-27, 9:57 pm

Very Happy
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by andyhb on 2012-03-28, 1:25 am

00z GFS would be a hell of a setup across much of the Western GL region, perhaps further south.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-03-28, 2:22 am

hey Andy, what's the take from the Euro on this system, what's the possibilities for TN?
Thanks . Smile
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by andyhb on 2012-03-28, 2:34 am

Euro looks fairly close to the GFS, but slower, so likely not a lot of a threat for TN.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by andyhb on 2012-03-28, 6:29 am

If you were to slow down the 06z GFS verbatim for the trough setup to around the 00z Euro's timing, then I think we could have a problem in TN on Monday. Just a highly impressive mid/upper level system all around on this run.

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Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-03-28, 7:04 am

andyhb wrote:If you were to slow down the 06z GFS verbatim for the trough setup to around the 00z Euro's timing, then I think we could have a problem in TN on Monday. Just a highly impressive mid/upper level system all around on this run.
Thanks Andy. Please keep us updated. rock on
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-03-28, 7:19 am

andyhb wrote:If you were to slow down the 06z GFS verbatim for the trough setup to around the 00z Euro's timing, then I think we could have a problem in TN on Monday. Just a highly impressive mid/upper level system all around on this run.
Around hour 111 andy, look at all the shear in Eastern Texas. They could have a major outbreak there, they also have a ton of instability to work with. Then as the system moves east there is a lot of shear to work with in Middle Tennesse and further south. With winds just howling out of the southwest. You are right we could have a major problem.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Toot on 2012-03-28, 8:46 am

The 6zgfs still has what looks like a widespread event to my eye...this one is gonna be interesting that particular run took the surface low down to about 965mb wow

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by tellicowx on 2012-03-28, 1:10 pm

Definantley a setup that needs to be watched. After looking at 12z GFS, looks very interesting for N. Alabama into Middle TN. Everything depends on the secondary low imo.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-03-28, 1:35 pm

Adam2014 wrote:
andyhb wrote:If you were to slow down the 06z GFS verbatim for the trough setup to around the 00z Euro's timing, then I think we could have a problem in TN on Monday. Just a highly impressive mid/upper level system all around on this run.
Around hour 111 andy, look at all the shear in Eastern Texas. They could have a major outbreak there, they also have a ton of instability to work with. Then as the system moves east there is a lot of shear to work with in Middle Tennesse and further south. With winds just howling out of the southwest. You are right we could have a major problem.
correct on the problems adam, i am starting to get interested in this system for our area... you really want winds out of the southeast to south. but its a start.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Toot on 2012-03-28, 2:39 pm

A negative tilt trough and a deep surface cyclone with very strong cold and warm fronts will target our area among others with what looks like another widespread severe outbreak. Timing is still an issue with some models not even initializing this system yet... which is now over the northern Pacific Ocean. But the GFS has become locked onto this feature and its becoming quite clear very early that this system will pound the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with hail/wind and Tornados. If discrete activity gets going (and it probably will) long track Tornados cannot be ruled out.

With that said there is always time for things to trend a little calmer but what im seeing is at least a moderate risk day. Everybody should pay close attention to this situation as it could affect many


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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by tellicowx on 2012-03-28, 4:00 pm

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...THEN AREA-WIDE LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.


MRX already starting to take notice of this system.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Mike Puckett on 2012-03-28, 4:05 pm

Yeaaaaah....I'll do my spotting on low risk days. When the word outbreak is used I'll leave that up to somebody else while I drive south Smile
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-03-28, 4:38 pm

Mike Puckett wrote:Yeaaaaah....I'll do my spotting on low risk days. When the word outbreak is used I'll leave that up to somebody else while I drive south Smile
Welcome Mike! I am personally ready for some less boring weather to happen. This storm system looks very potent.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Mike Puckett on 2012-03-28, 6:24 pm

Dammit, I was planning a trip to my sister's in Florida over the weekend and staying til probably Tuesday, but now they're backing the severe outbreak further west so I dunno if I should go. Don't wanna waste a 10 1/2 hour drive lol

"MON APR 2
Numerical models still have some differences, and there are questions about the coverage and exact locations, but there could be severe thunderstorms in an area somewhat like southwest WI, east IA, west and central IL, MO, central and east AR, west KY, west TN, MS, LA, and possibly AL and west FL panhandle. Monitor subsequent forecasts for more confidence in the area and severity
of the threat."
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by andyhb on 2012-03-28, 6:55 pm

tellicowx wrote:Definantley a setup that needs to be watched. After looking at 12z GFS, looks very interesting for N. Alabama into Middle TN. Everything depends on the secondary low imo.
Not necessarily, I'd say more the track of the low is more important, the setup looks slightly linear, but there are some very impressive wind profiles showing up on the 12z GFS in the SE (even without a second low, a second low would make that go from bad to worse), in conjunction with a lot of moisture (65+ dews across virtually the whole area).

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Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
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Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Toot on 2012-03-28, 7:05 pm

Mike Puckett wrote:Dammit, I was planning a trip to my sister's in Florida over the weekend and staying til probably Tuesday, but now they're backing the severe outbreak further west so I dunno if I should go. Don't wanna waste a 10 1/2 hour drive lol

"MON APR 2
Numerical models still have some differences, and there are questions about the coverage and exact locations, but there could be severe thunderstorms in an area somewhat like southwest WI, east IA, west and central IL, MO, central and east AR, west KY, west TN, MS, LA, and possibly AL and west FL panhandle. Monitor subsequent forecasts for more confidence in the area and severity
of the threat."

I would think the chances of you getting injured during a severe outbreak are about the same as you getting onto an interstate and driving southward at 80mph and being involved in a car accident...Not for sure but just saying....lol

Anyways I think the threat will extend eastward the next day on whoever you have quoted there.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Mike Puckett on 2012-03-28, 7:13 pm

Toot wrote:
Mike Puckett wrote:Dammit, I was planning a trip to my sister's in Florida over the weekend and staying til probably Tuesday, but now they're backing the severe outbreak further west so I dunno if I should go. Don't wanna waste a 10 1/2 hour drive lol

"MON APR 2
Numerical models still have some differences, and there are questions about the coverage and exact locations, but there could be severe thunderstorms in an area somewhat like southwest WI, east IA, west and central IL, MO, central and east AR, west KY, west TN, MS, LA, and possibly AL and west FL panhandle. Monitor subsequent forecasts for more confidence in the area and severity
of the threat."

I would think the chances of you getting injured during a severe outbreak are about the same as you getting onto an interstate and driving southward at 80mph and being involved in a car accident...Not for sure but just saying....lol

Anyways I think the threat will extend eastward the next day on whoever you have quoted there.

Yeah I hear that alot....I'd rather take my chances on I-95 rock on
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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-03-28, 8:41 pm

tellicowx wrote:

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...THEN AREA-WIDE LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.


MRX already starting to take notice of this system.

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Re: April Fools timeframe Lakes Cutter

Post by Mike Puckett on 2012-03-28, 8:44 pm

lol....heeeeeeeeeeeere's outbreak!
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