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April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

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April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-10, 9:15 pm

Since this one looks like it may effect us I thought I would create a thread for this particular system as it has become a very trackable threat

18z GFS and its ensembles




Last edited by Toot on 2012-04-13, 5:55 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-10, 10:10 pm

This storm looks very strong on the models. Very strong Low Pressure system.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Matthew on 2012-04-10, 11:37 pm

Models are starting to agree for this time frame. Will be interesting to watch how this unfolds as we get closer to the weekend. With this really nice weather we have had would not surprise me to have a severe wx period.
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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-04-11, 5:51 am

models are starting to come in agreement, west tn looks to be effected with this severe system monday into tuesday... strong lower jet prevails over area... going to be intersting for sure... spc is also hinting on this moving east beyond day 5... just waiting on more model consistency to highlight a area..

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-11, 8:19 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:models are starting to come in agreement, west tn looks to be effected with this severe system monday into tuesday... strong lower jet prevails over area... going to be intersting for sure... spc is also hinting on this moving east beyond day 5... just waiting on more model consistency to highlight a area..
Well it would sure be nice if we were affected by it. Some interesting weather would be nice. I reckon as always time will tell. popcorn
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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-11, 4:53 pm

Storm continues to look strong on the models.. I am getting concerned.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-11, 5:03 pm

Also, the pressure modeled with the low keeps dropping. The latest GFS has it at 996. Not terribly strong but no push over that is for sure.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-11, 5:05 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Storm continues to look strong on the models.. I am getting concerned.

Yep the 12z gfs is quite a few milibars stronger than yesterdays 12z

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-11, 5:59 pm

Looks very wide spread severe on the models too!

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-11, 11:13 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Looks very wide spread severe on the models too!

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-12, 7:10 am

Already a moderate risk for Day 3 from the SPC. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-12, 8:04 am

well, lets see. I have a 50% chance for thunder storms on Monday night according to OHX. Things look to be a little rough out to our west for the next couple of days.
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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-12, 8:14 am

Our system already has a moderate risk out for the plains in the day 3 outlook





Thats preety stout for a day 3 outlook yikes

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-12, 8:15 am

I just think that this storm is not our storm for severe weather. Hopefully it will open the airways for other storms to come in. There is still a lot of time to tell though. Arkansas looks to get a pretty nasty outbreak though.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-12, 8:20 am

0z CMC


6z ensembles


day 4

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-12, 8:31 am

Looks like it will be unseasonably warm ahead of the systems cold front as the LPS tugs at the warmer airmass in the tropics



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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-12, 12:50 pm

The last time a moderate risk was issued on a day 3 outlook was last year around the april 27th timeframe

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-12, 10:27 pm

Models not looking so hott on the system for our area now, the storm just gives out...

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-12, 10:34 pm

EURO has a secondary low that develops that could give us some severe weather, that is very interesting.. A crap load of shear on the model.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-12, 10:37 pm

EURO has a secondary low that develops that could give us some severe weather, that is very interesting.. I think it will be to cold as we will be on the north side of the system I wish it would migrate further north!


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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-12, 10:38 pm

This has never gone away...there has been several model runs including the 18zgfs that indicate widespread SVR weather will be possible. I wouldnt let my gaurd down on this one...its being advertised a little weaker but it has plenty of strength still. The placement of the low so far north is about the only thing keeping me from saying possible outbreak

18z GFS

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-04-12, 10:42 pm

i have been buisy last 3 hours fighting with my old lady... i am determined to go to oklahoma city to see a good friend of mine that lives there... so place to stay wouldnt cost me a dime... she says i am not going any where. the fat lady hasnt sung yet... i may be taking me a road trip. i 40 west.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-12, 10:43 pm

Yeah your right, if the low was further south we would probably have quite a bit of severe weather..

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-12, 10:47 pm

This storm should kick the ridge out though so the storms won't go as far north.

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

Post by Toot on 2012-04-12, 10:52 pm

Adam2014 wrote:This storm should kick the ridge out though so the storms won't go as far north.

Good point Adam!!

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Re: April 14th-17th Strong Storm System

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