Winter 2012/2013 early look
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Winter 2012/2013 early look
Credit to Bastardi for posting this. Early look from the JMA on fall and winter temps. Looks pretty good for those that like cold and snow, hell just about anything will beat last winter. JMA is pretty bad for short term forecasts but their long term stuff has been pretty good here of late. Take it with a grain of salt but here it is....(left pic is Sept, Oct, Nov...right pic is Dec, Jan, Feb)
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
The JMA is scary cold fall and winter. What it's showing right now would be colder than 10-11
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
guarantee it said the same thing this time last year
Reb- Admin
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
Nope...it nailed last winter as a torch!!
Looks like we may very well have a Nino with a negative PDO this winter also.
Looks like we may very well have a Nino with a negative PDO this winter also.
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
Hope the summer is, indeed, cool so I can save money up to pay the winter electric bill.
WxFreak- Founding Member
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
i wont fall for this again, getting my hopes up for a good winter to only get let dowm... but i will take my chances on a elnino winter.hopefully the nao will corporate and be our friend this winter.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
The CPC is seeing normal to above normal temps for fall/winter. It appears they've not updated their forecasts since March 15th though.
Here is the main link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Here is the main link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
Bastardi giving an early look on the winter of 12/13. As Toot said above, a Nino in a cold PDO. If Bastardi's analogs are right, it could be a decent winter. Of course the worlds going to end in December so I hope it is a front loaded winter.
LINK TO ARTICLE
LINK TO ARTICLE
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
After observing the last three winters, I put more weight on the state of the NAO/AO, than the Nina/Nino. I’ve read that there seems to be a connection between the solar cycles, and the NAO/AO during winter. Solar max= positive leaning NAO, solar minimum= negative leaning NAO. During the winters of 09 and 10, the sun was just coming out of one of the deepest slumbers in recent memory, and we did have two negative NAO winters in a row. The sun is now in a more active phase—approaching solar maximum, so it will be interesting to see if it really does affect the phase of the NAO/AO over the northern hemisphere this coming winter.
If we have two positive NAO/AO winters in a row, I'll certainly buy into the hypothesis.
If we have two positive NAO/AO winters in a row, I'll certainly buy into the hypothesis.
WxFreak- Founding Member
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
WxFreak wrote:After observing the last three winters, I put more weight on the state of the NAO/AO, than the Nina/Nino.
Most definately...IMO opposite values of local teleconnections (NAO/PNA/AO) has in the last few years.. clearly shown to have much more bearing on the outcome of our winter than opposite values of ENSO does.
Of course...there is a very simple reason for this IMO. It's because they are measured more closely to our backyards than say...ENSO..QBO...AMO..WPO..or EPO is and therefore have more directly related impacts.
At least thats what I believe anyways
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
Looks like the CFS is still predicting some strong high latitude blocking...in turn resulting in a pretty cold winter.
I stole this image from JB's FB page
I stole this image from JB's FB page
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
good article over on accuweather, ole henry over there is saying he is seeing signs of even a stronger el nino developing by fall...
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
If blocking actually develops and locks in for much of the winter, and the developing El Nino gives us an active sub-tropical jet --we just might have a winter that could make up for the last sucky one we just endured.
WxFreak- Founding Member
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
WxFreak wrote:If blocking actually develops and locks in for much of the winter, and the developing El Nino gives us an active sub-tropical jet --we just might have a winter that could make up for the last sucky one we just endured.
The negative PDO is another card that argues for a colder and snowier winter here. So far there looks to be several signals that suggest cold and snowy..The coming Nino....-PDO....-NAO Blocking forecasted by seasonal models.
We only had the favorable PDO to work with last winter and seasonal models at this point last year were predicting the winter torch that actually occurred.
Im liking what im seeing at this point
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
Toot wrote:WxFreak wrote:If blocking actually develops and locks in for much of the winter, and the developing El Nino gives us an active sub-tropical jet --we just might have a winter that could make up for the last sucky one we just endured.
The negative PDO is another card that argues for a colder and snowier winter here. So far there looks to be several signals that suggest cold and snowy..The coming Nino....-PDO....-NAO Blocking forecasted by seasonal models.
We only had the favorable PDO to work with last winter and seasonal models at this point last year were predicting the winter torch that actually occurred.
Im liking what im seeing at this point
And I'm liking what I am hearing from you!!
Vanster67- Admin
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
Vanster67 wrote:
And I'm liking what I am hearing from you!!
Stolen from JB's FB page.. is the CFS seasonal model forecast for Temp departure from normal
Dec..Jan...Feb
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
That's as cold as this winter was hot.
If that verifies...
Mother of God.
If that verifies...
Mother of God.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
I wonder what the JAMSTEC is currently showing for the winter. Bastardi hasn't mentioned it in a while.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
They say that mother nature always balances the books over time. If it verifies, it would appear she knows our side of the globe had it easy last winter, and we're gonna pay our dues this next one.
WxFreak- Founding Member
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
for what i am seeing on sites by major mets, the year 1976-1977 is the most often used for this upcoming winter... in the mother of god... if this is true... hope we have a winter were the main water lines bust... sick n tired of these pansy winters, hell... if i want a winter like we had last year i wold move to florida
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
tennessee storm09 wrote:for what i am seeing on sites by major mets, the year 1976-1977 is the most often used for this upcoming winter... in the mother of god... if this is true... hope we have a winter were the main water lines bust... sick n tired of these pansy winters, hell... if i want a winter like we had last year i wold move to florida
I enjoy some good winter lovin', but I also love me a shower every morning. I'll keep my water line, please.
WxFreak- Founding Member
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
Agreed Freak..not only that.. but I dont want to fix any broken pipes either. Other than that...bring it
Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
i guess should have made myself more clearer, i meant the cities main water line... i dont want no pipes to bust at my house either. lolToot wrote:Agreed Freak..not only that.. but I dont want to fix any broken pipes either. Other than that...bring it
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look
tennessee storm09 wrote:i guess should have made myself more clearer, i meant the cities main water line... i dont want no pipes to bust at my house either. lolToot wrote:Agreed Freak..not only that.. but I dont want to fix any broken pipes either. Other than that...bring it
LOL...you hard core. But let's keep the water flowin, while the winter winds a' blowin'.
WxFreak- Founding Member
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