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Winter 2012/2013 early look

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-19, 5:55 pm

Toot wrote:
lyngo wrote:

I'm interested to see if we'll see a rapid buildup of snowfall in the higher latitudes this fall due to the amount of open water from the low ice extent. More moisture=heaver snowfalls? Should make for an interesting fall season..

Good point and indeed it will be interesting to see what effects the record low sea ice has on sensible wx this fall. Personally..im ready for one those strong "squall line" type cold fronts that ushers in pure Arctic air..but its still early fall Neutral
it will be about early november for one of those toot... they usually bring severe weather with them also

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-21, 1:17 pm

Someone posted a temp anomaly map over at Talkweather from one model run of the NASA seasonal model. Ive heard a couple of people calling this nasa's winter outlook...lol NASA DOES NOT DO SEASONAL OUTLOOKS

First of all its just a seasonal weather model just like the CFS..JMA etc... Its ran on a daily basis just like all the other seasonal models. These seasonal models have several different ensembles that can be averaged to come up with a mean.

The way you get a more accurate portrayal of what one of these models show for a season is you have to get the mean of several runs. This gives you an idea of what that model is showing for a three month season.

You cant just show an anomaly from one model run and say "The nasa model is showing a really cold winter" lol

Now with that said..the NASA seasonal model is still experimental but it has a VERY good track record so far

Here is the mean of several different model runs of the the NASA seasonal model

SON


NDJ


JFM


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-21, 10:56 pm

The el nino subtropical jet is also showing up now as its just getting started


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-22, 7:03 am

Now for the far east seasonal models departures from normal

Jamstec mean anomalies for 2mtemp and precip

Temps


Precip


Now here is the Beijing climate center seasonal mean for DJF temps


I could only find data for December from the Korean Met Administration (KMA)

850mb temp departures


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-25, 5:06 pm

Boy I hope the Pacific dont overwhelm the pattern this winter..because that is a definate possibility. I have been looking over some weak nino/neg PDO data and some winters where heavily influenced by the +EPO even though the NAO/AO were negative.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-25, 7:31 pm

Toot wrote:Boy I hope the Pacific dont overwhelm the pattern this winter..because that is a definate possibility. I have been looking over some weak nino/neg PDO data and some winters where heavily influenced by the +EPO even though the NAO/AO were negative.
the ridge should be setting up shop over the pacific this winter... that will pinch off the pacific influence... surely your not concerned about the pacific firehose.... that would be a major concern inn a la nina enso pattern

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-25, 8:01 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: surely your not concerned about the pacific firehose.... that would be a major concern inn a la nina enso pattern

No..im talking about the positive phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) lol!

Sometimes in a neg PDO winter the EPO trumps the NAO no matter how negative it is. Its not a big worry because last year was also a positive EPO year..prob not gonna happen two years in a row..but one never truly knows smoke

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-26, 7:57 pm

It is the Weather Channel but I don't like the looks of this.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/late-fall-early-winter-outlook-20120924?cm_ven=Facebook&cm_cat=fb_article_comment
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-26, 8:14 pm

that outlook on that map there is COMPLETE HORSESHIT, no way... all i have to say

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-26, 8:28 pm

I totally agree with it...The NAO is fixing to go positive in a big way...im guessing it will be late December before any sustained arctic air has a chance to intrude! This may be an El Nino weather pattern but other forces are starting to show their muscle also.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-26, 8:38 pm

Toot wrote:I totally agree with it...The NAO is fixing to go positive in a big way...im guessing it will be late December before any sustained arctic air has a chance to intrude! This may be an El Nino weather pattern but other forces are starting to show their muscle also.
well if the nao is fixing to go EXTREMLEY postitive, then there better be n should be some severe weather events... with the battle of air masses going on and the jet stream coming south more, especially later this fall at least.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by andyhb on 2012-09-26, 8:55 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:that outlook on that map there is COMPLETE HORSESHIT, no way... all i have to say
Dude, chill the hell out.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by andyhb on 2012-09-26, 9:01 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Toot wrote:I totally agree with it...The NAO is fixing to go positive in a big way...im guessing it will be late December before any sustained arctic air has a chance to intrude! This may be an El Nino weather pattern but other forces are starting to show their muscle also.
well if the nao is fixing to go EXTREMLEY postitive, then there better be n should be some severe weather events... with the battle of air masses going on and the jet stream coming south more, especially later this fall at least.
You need more than a battle of air masses and the jet coming south for severe weather. Troughing in the west is what you want for severe weather, just FYI, it will set up the baroclinic zone somewhere over the central US in association with ridging in the east, which is needed for the "battle of the air masses" to take place. Persistent, but also progressive west coast troughing ushering vort maxes/jet streaks eastward is key to many of the biggest severe events in US history.

Case in point, 4/25-27/11. Many people forget that it was not just one system, but actually multiple strong vort maxes (the strongest of which was the one that induced the 4/27 chaos) and associated jet streaks migrating around the bottom of the larger longwave trough over the Central CONUS that sparked the svr weather each day/night of that sequence, sort of how like suction vortices in a multiple vortex tornado rotate around a common center. These vort maxes came from troughing in the Pacific NW and were ushered southeastward and around the axis of the central CONUS synoptic trough.

In other off topic news, that TWC anchor is a fox...

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-26, 9:59 pm

yes i agree with you andy 100 percent man... espcially on the anchor on twc... she is a fox big time man. Very Happy

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by snowdog on 2012-09-27, 9:08 am

Toot wrote:I totally agree with it...The NAO is fixing to go positive in a big way...im guessing it will be late December before any sustained arctic air has a chance to intrude! This may be an El Nino weather pattern but other forces are starting to show their muscle also.

Not again, reminds me of last year.


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-09-27, 10:00 am

In the long range that Northern Stream is just completely dominate. This reminds me a lot of last year....

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by snowdog on 2012-09-27, 4:30 pm

I see the GFS is up to it's old tricks. 00z and 12z completely different in the long range with how it handles the west coast flow.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-29, 10:31 am

I saved this image from last November...it was the first snow threat of the season and a monster of a cutoff low. We all know what happened after that. Lets hope we dont start seeing these again..it seems like last winter was nothing but cutoff lows that couldnt tap any cold air because they were cut off from it cliffdive


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-09-29, 10:36 pm

Robert Gamble's thoughts..AKA "Foothills"


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-09-30, 1:36 am

Toot wrote:Robert Gamble's thoughts..AKA "Foothills"

Me LIKEY very much!!!!!!!!!!!!! pals
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-30, 8:53 am

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/393620_516623561701037_274287354_n.jpg I will second that. rfl
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-30, 8:57 am

Would it be a little better for us in Tennessee if the low track coming just up to the GA, FLA. line instead of going farther into fla.
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-30, 9:45 am

windstorm wrote:Would it be a little better for us in Tennessee if the low track coming just up to the GA, FLA. line instead of going farther into fla.
exactly what i was thinking, this just being a weak nino at best... doubt that track will be that far south.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-30, 4:57 pm

I have notice when we get a low tracking say up to south Ga we here in SE TN. get those 4 plus inch snows. But when they take a track into fla we are either on the 1 to 2 inch line or nothing more than traces amounts if that.
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-30, 4:59 pm

I forgot to add in the last post people farther north of me most times see nothing or maybe a snowflake or two.
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

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