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Winter 2012/2013 early look

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-19, 10:16 pm

WxFreak wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:
Toot wrote:Agreed Freak..not only that.. but I dont want to fix any broken pipes either. Other than that...bring it rock on
i guess should have made myself more clearer, i meant the cities main water line... i dont want no pipes to bust at my house either. lol lol! lol!

LOL...you hard core. But let's keep the water flowin, while the winter winds a' blowin'. torch
lol freak... guess i got a bit carried away.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 7:40 am

Man look at that NAO blocking the latest CFS is forecasting for this winter rock on


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-06-25, 12:01 am

Toot, its been a while. Wanted to say hi. Not sure if u know this, but the CFSV2 came in the other day and it now shows a mod elnino developing in its plumes. I read it over at storm 2k the other day. Also, the EURO seasonal outlook came in for oct-dec, and so far it shows a weak to mod elnino, and it supposed to be westbased. This is just an early forecast, but i also read it at american weather. U may can post the link for us. Its over at the regional forecast page on american. Then you look for the MIDATLANTIC section. Sure would like to see a few winter events and cold artic blasts this winter sneaky

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-25, 12:21 am

Yeah all seasonal models are saying coldest winter in several YEARS

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-06-26, 12:31 pm

Toot wrote:Yeah all seasonal models are saying coldest winter in several YEARS

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-26, 2:47 pm

You mean colder than 2009-10, or 2010-11? Considering those are the two coldest winters I can remember since the 90’s. Razz
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by buddy17474 on 2012-06-27, 12:18 am

To me, 2009-10 was colder, 2010-11 was snowier.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-27, 8:34 am

I plan on sticking my head deep into some analog data this weekend and maybe come up with a preliminary outlook for this winter. Looks like there will be many from the 1950's and the 1970's

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-07-16, 8:44 pm

Doing a little research tonight and I have ran into a bad statistic for winter weather lovers. This june the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) registered -2.53....That's insanely negative!!

Now for the bad news...I have only found 5 years since 1950 that the NAO averaged at least -1.50 in the month of June...ALL 5 YEARS FEATURED A POSITIVE NAO THE FOLLOWING WINTER torch

Here is the data layed out like --> YEAR/NAO DURING JUNE/ENSO THE FOLLOWING WINTER


1998 -2.72 MOD NINA
1987 -1.82 MOD NINO
1982 -1.63 STRONG NINO
1971 -1.57 WEAK NINA
1951 -1.64 MOD NINO



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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-07-17, 7:21 am

Toot wrote:Doing a little research tonight and I have ran into a bad statistic for winter weather lovers. This june the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) registered -2.53....That's insanely negative!!

Now for the bad news...I have only found 5 years since 1950 that the NAO averaged at least -1.50 in the month of June...ALL 5 YEARS FEATURED A POSITIVE NAO THE FOLLOWING WINTER torch

Here is the data layed out like --> YEAR/NAO DURING JUNE/ENSO THE FOLLOWING WINTER


1998 -2.72 MOD NINA
1987 -1.82 MOD NINO
1982 -1.63 STRONG NINO
1971 -1.57 WEAK NINA
1951 -1.64 MOD NINO


Boo, HISS!! I love winter weather as do you, so I hope you got that info out of a comic book! Rolling Eyes
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-07-17, 9:34 am

Vanster67 wrote:
Toot wrote:Doing a little research tonight and I have ran into a bad statistic for winter weather lovers. This june the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) registered -2.53....That's insanely negative!!

Now for the bad news...I have only found 5 years since 1950 that the NAO averaged at least -1.50 in the month of June...ALL 5 YEARS FEATURED A POSITIVE NAO THE FOLLOWING WINTER torch

Here is the data layed out like --> YEAR/NAO DURING JUNE/ENSO THE FOLLOWING WINTER


1998 -2.72 MOD NINA
1987 -1.82 MOD NINO
1982 -1.63 STRONG NINO
1971 -1.57 WEAK NINA
1951 -1.64 MOD NINO


Boo, HISS!! I love winter weather as do you, so I hope you got that info out of a comic book! Rolling Eyes

If I know Toot, he probably did.



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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-07-17, 11:09 am

Stovepipe wrote:
Vanster67 wrote:
Toot wrote:Doing a little research tonight and I have ran into a bad statistic for winter weather lovers. This june the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) registered -2.53....That's insanely negative!!

Now for the bad news...I have only found 5 years since 1950 that the NAO averaged at least -1.50 in the month of June...ALL 5 YEARS FEATURED A POSITIVE NAO THE FOLLOWING WINTER torch

Here is the data layed out like --> YEAR/NAO DURING JUNE/ENSO THE FOLLOWING WINTER


1998 -2.72 MOD NINA
1987 -1.82 MOD NINO
1982 -1.63 STRONG NINO
1971 -1.57 WEAK NINA
1951 -1.64 MOD NINO


Boo, HISS!! I love winter weather as do you, so I hope you got that info out of a comic book! Rolling Eyes

If I know Toot, he probably did.



lapat
Stove, that my friend is priceless! rfl rfl
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-07-17, 5:25 pm

Lol...I just found a new smiley

No comic books guys


Here is the raw data



Here is the source for the raw data
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml


I will let yall figure out the rest..if thats possible! lapat

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-17, 7:40 pm

I never knew Supes had magnetic lightning powers. popcorn
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-07-21, 10:28 pm

larry cosgrove has a nice newsletter tonight folks... i would paste if could, already seeing signs of a much cooler upcoming fall n winter also... east of the continent divide...on a shorter term... he says after next week this hot pattern starts to break down big time... i have said this all along, back end of summer will be much cooler n wetter than average... as the characteristics of elnino slowly starts to develop... i think we will be rewarded dearly with a nice winter this 12 13 year... we surely did pay for it last year... we deserve it... i am starting to think we may have a fairly active late summer and early fall severe season on our hands... i will make a topic on tis a tad latter down the road... stay tuned.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-07-22, 10:19 pm

The CFS mean has been consistently producing a negative NAO for this coming winter. This model has 4 ensembles that update daily. Most everything as you would imagine also changes on a daily basis. The one thing that hasnt changed very much from day to day is the signs of a negative NAO and a cold eastern US.

Of course this is just one model system and could very well be wrong. I myself would like to see the NAO start going positive soon..because it will probably hang around in positive territory for a couple of months before going back negative and I dont wont it to stay negative thru fall and end up positive during winter.

It very well could stay negative right up through winter but it dont usually happen that way..but its always possible

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-07-23, 8:58 am

From what I could tell during winter and spring, the CFS had a pretty decent track record. Don Sutherland seems to take it seriously.
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-07-23, 5:17 pm

from what i have read from the ole man over the years... don is a warm bias person... he is already dreading this winter.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-07-23, 6:05 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:from what i have read from the ole man over the years... don is a warm bias person... he is already dreading this winter.


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-07-24, 12:10 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:from what i have read from the ole man over the years... don is a warm bias person... he is already dreading this winter.

Possibly, but he absolutely nailed December 2011 through April 2012. He is very open about the statistical methods he is using. It's not just a hunch.
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-07-24, 10:42 pm

Up close and personal with Frankie Mcdowell and his winter forecast for the eastern US



Lol... what's that Frankie? 960Mb megabomb storms this winter...I'll take em beer


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-07-25, 9:03 am

Friggin awesome. Gotta love Frankie.

rock on
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Grimkus on 2012-07-27, 10:14 pm

I came across an old AccuWx article from from September 2010. Joe Bastardi talks bout the winters of 2012, 2013 & 2014, and the possiblity of historic cold.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/combination-of-factors-could-m/36990

Here's the video....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkKURzmPwso&feature=related

With all the recent chatter, I can't help but feel a little optimistic about the coming winter. Smile
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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-07-27, 10:49 pm

I remember those well Grimkus.

Just based on past PDO cycles/behavior I would say the chances are high for a couple of historically cold winters sometime this decade. Picking which years they are likely to happen is the hard part.

ENSO forecasts this coming winter certainly favors cold. I just wish the NAO was as predictable as ENSO. We'd have it all figured out then...or at least we'd think we do. But then again that would probably take the fun out of it...lol

Historic or not this coming winter will almost certainly be better than last mad

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-07-28, 12:08 am

Toot wrote:Up close and personal with Frankie Mcdowell and his winter forecast for the eastern US



Lol... what's that Frankie? 960Mb megabomb storms this winter...I'll take em beer

lmfao santa

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

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