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Atlantic Tropical Weather

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Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2011-12-08, 8:55 pm




Last edited by Toot on 2012-07-27, 9:43 pm; edited 9 times in total

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Guest on 2011-12-08, 8:59 pm

LOL... because its Winter time!! Hahahaha

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-05, 3:20 pm

Toot wrote:There is no tropical weather because it's winter time dangit

Atlantic


wrong, there is actually i disturbance in the gulf showing tropical traits, its unreal. invest no. 90 just to show you how warm the gulf is folks.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 5:13 pm

Its not tropical its attached to a frontal system....Tropical storms depressions and hurricanes do not have fronts

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-05, 5:29 pm

Toot wrote:Its not tropical its attached to a frontal system....Tropical storms depressions and hurricanes do not have fronts
national hurricane center is calling it a tropical system, watching for further development

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 5:35 pm

Nowhere have they called any system tropical in the GOM...there is a monsoon trough fetching moisture from the TROPICS region deep in the gulf but the low is PURELY extratropical. They did say they were watching it for future development but its not expected to be tropical development.

It is the NHC's job to monitor that body of water year round even if its not tropical. If a invest has or is going to be issued that doesnt make it tropical either. I suppose it would be possible for a hybrid storm to form but those waters are still not warm enough to support pure tropical development

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by shane03 on 2012-02-05, 5:59 pm

This is all new to me toot. so i looked it up, a Tropical storm has hit Florida before in Febuary. Feb 1st 1952 listed as the Groundhog Day storm. not that this has anything to do with what your saying. just that its possible during winter from what i have read. but im a newb and can be wrong.lol

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 6:04 pm

Oh yeah its definately possible but the waters are really not warm enough to support it this Febuary. You would need waters of 80 degrees or better to support a purely tropical system....they dont get that warm until you get down into the carribean right now


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by shane03 on 2012-02-05, 6:12 pm

Ok that helps alot. I should have said where i read the article, it was by Trent Aric and it formed in the carribean as you said it would have to for water temp.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 6:24 pm

shane03 wrote:Ok that helps alot. I should have said where i read the article, it was by Trent Aric and it formed in the carribean as you said it would have to for water temp.

FWIW the NWS in Miami is calling it subtropical and they expect it to merge with a frontal system which will then kill any chnce for tropical development.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 051942
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

...WET WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SUBTROPICAL VORT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MERGES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. TRAINING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED NEAR KEY WEST...AND THIS ENTIRE
AREA WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

This is still an interesting situation though because as we already know alot of this is going to try and come north into colder air drool

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 9:07 pm

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-06, 10:06 am

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-06, 10:15 am

Off of Bastardi's FB page

GFS in sw carib in 384 off 06z run. do not trust the details but its starting to sniff out the pattern

Its not sniffing out ANYTHING at 384hrs Joe facepalm

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by snowdog on 2012-05-06, 11:25 am

I think I just sniffed the GFS at 384 while changing my daughters diaper.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-06, 3:28 pm

lol..to funny Snow doggy doggy dog Razz

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-06, 4:50 pm

Toot wrote:lol..to funny Snow doggy doggy dog Razz

lol...Toot you been drinkin? rfl
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-06, 5:07 pm

No...not today but I did yesterday and its quite possible im still slightly intoxicated Wink

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-06, 6:22 pm

Toot wrote:No...not today but I did yesterday and its quite possible im still slightly intoxicated Wink

Yep yep. Could be. I had a little myself today. pals
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-09, 11:11 pm

The GFS is popping fantasy canes way out in la la land.

These are similar to the fantasy snowstorms during winter beer


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-10, 5:27 pm

Several of the GFS ensembles are also suggesting an early season tropical cyclone coming northward out of the Carribean...but its still way too far out to trust


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-12, 3:22 pm

And just like that an area gets highlighted in the Atlantic




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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-13, 3:15 pm

12z GFS and this mornings EURO are agreeing on what looks like a pre season Hurricane coming out of the carribean. The GFS landfalls near Miami and then threatens the Carolinas again while the euro waits to blow it up off the SE coast. Still a long ways out but this is starting to get interesting

12z GFS




0z Euro

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-13, 10:44 pm

Just a FYI....The Gulf SST's are starting to get supportive for tropical systems. This is about normal for this time of year


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-13, 11:22 pm

BTW the Atlantic invest that the NHC gave a low chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone to... is nothing but a naked swirl now cheers

Invest 92L




It really never had ANY chance of becoming tropical...because it had a cold core to begin with and the water it was over was not at all supportive. It may have had a small chance at becoming subtropical but it looks like conditions have become unfavorable now... as it started ingesting alot of dry air and wind shear began blowing cloud tops away from the low level center of circulation.

Im just happy to finally have some stuff to track. It looks like its going to get even more interesting in a few days popcorn

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-16, 2:03 pm

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

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