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Late season Mtn snow

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Late season Mtn snow

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 7:01 am

A surface low is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night and move northeastward up the U.S. east coast. By early Monday the system is forecast to deepen into a monster mid lattitude cyclone.

Heavy rain will be possible across much of the eastern U.S. For inland areas, heavy snow will be a threat from the mountains of TN/NC northward into western New York rock on rock on

cold


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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 8:18 am

If it were January, we'd be talking major mega snow storm with more cold air available. As it stands, areas of the Northeast and parts of the Appalachians are going to see several inches of heavy, wet snow that will cause havoc with the trees now fully leafed. This AFD from College Station, PA:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WEST OF THE DEEPENING LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY APPEARS TO GIVE MUCH OF CENTRAL PA ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER...WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS PER USUAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VALLEYS COULD END UP SEEING SLUSHY ACCUMS AS WELL ON MONDAY MORNING...AS OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW AND LOCATION OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT AND COLD POOL ALOFT OVER CENTRAL PA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -4C LINGER OVER CENTRAL PA FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OF COURSE...THE BIGGEST STORY WON`T BE THE SNOWFALL ITSELF...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES DUE TO FALLING LIMBS UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW ON TREES WHICH EXPERIENCED LEAF OUT 3-4 WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN EXTREMELY DAMAGING EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

Guess ole man Winter isn't a tree hugger. He did this same thing in the northeast back in October. Someone needs to tell him we've GONE GREEN in this country. It's time for him to move on. He had his chance during Nov-March, and blew it. burn NO late season tantrums allowed!
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 12:08 pm

MRX hates the "S" word in spring as much as they do during winter months. No mention of snow, or even a flurry, in the high elevations right now. They do call for "showers" and lows in the lower 30's tomorrow night. No call for even a mix. S word is taboo.
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 12:37 pm

WxFreak wrote:MRX hates the "S" word in spring as much as they do during winter months. No mention of snow, or even a flurry, in the high elevations right now. They do call for "showers" and lows in the lower 30's tomorrow night. No call for even a mix. S word is taboo.

They always wait until the last minute to mention snow and frost...they'll come around slap

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 3:42 pm

Looks like they've finally given in, and said the S word.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERN CONVECTION DID A GOOD JOB ROBBING PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS DISRUPTING UPPER LEVELS ACROSS E TN VALLEY TODAY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRESSURE FALLS ALREADY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. PATTERN MAKING A DRAMATIC SHIFT THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. STRONG UPPER JET DIVING SE INTO WEST TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVE N ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET CARVES DEEP TROUGH ABSORBING SOUTHERN SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ...MAINLY ACROSS NE AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MUCH OF THE EAST ON MONDAY. LATE SEASON NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS NE AREAS INCLUDING THE SMOKYS. FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GROUND TEMPERATURES WONT ALLOW FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION BUT HEAVY SNOW MAY IMPACT TREES ACROSS HIGH ELEVATIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH COOL DOWN KICKING INTO A HIGHER GEAR ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT TRENDS. LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING BUT CONTINUED COLD ON MONDAY.
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 3:56 pm

Heck there might could be some flurries on the plateau also. Either way it sure is going to be cold. This low really deepens as it goes up the east coast and brings down some very cold air to our area. We need to watch out for a freeze.

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 4:02 pm

This storm system looks like a tropical disturbance coming on shore. This looks awesome.

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 4:07 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Heck there might could be some flurries on the plateau also. Either way it sure is going to be cold. This low really deepens as it goes up the east coast and brings down some very cold air to our area. We need to watch out for a freeze.

Yes, MRX is avoiding talk about a frost right now, probably because the winds are going to be near advisory criteria even during the night. Gusts could be near 20-30 mph. Even without snow, we could see some issues with trees coming down. Winds that strong over a long period aren't all that common this time of the year. Any trees with diseased or weak wood could fall with winds blowing like that for 12-24 hours.


Last edited by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 4:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 4:09 pm

Oh those winds will start to die down as the skies get ultra clear with light winds and you know what that means yikes ...expecting a heavy frost in the northern half of the etn valley...When I say northern half I mean -40 north


Last edited by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 4:10 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Spelling lol)

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 4:11 pm

Toot wrote:Oh those winds will start do die down as tjhe skies get ultra clear with light winds and u know what that means yikes ...expecting a heavy frost in the northern half of the etn valley...When I say northern half I mean -40 north

Ha!! I live 10 miles south of I-40. I'm safe!! lmao
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 4:13 pm

Going to be awesome to see this storm happen that is for sure.

Definitely one for the history books. People in areas where the heavy, wet snow falls won't forget it any time soon. .

Whoops. Sorry Adam. The added power I have not got a little out of my control. Somehow I posted this under you. Geez. Gotta be more careful.
yikes
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 4:15 pm

I see what I did now. I meant to QUOTE you Adam. But I, instead, edited you. Sorry, Man. Won't happen again.
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 4:17 pm

facepalm

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 4:21 pm

Yeah, I know. Sure you want me to be an admin??? Suspect

Up to know, never able to edit like that, so wasn't paying attention. You've heard the expression that power corrupts?? lol

Seriously, though. I've learned to look before I click. stoned
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 4:42 pm

I am trying out a new software with this storm, here is my projected storm track of this storm. Let me know what you guys think about my predcition!


Last edited by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 4:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Toot on 2012-04-21, 4:46 pm



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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 10:10 pm

My track looks to be doing pretty good right now, at least I think.

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 10:15 pm

The water vapor loop of this thing is pretty cool. A very tightly wound circulation over the Gulf right now.
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 10:23 pm

I thought that this thing looked a little further north than where it was progged to be. The precip shield/cloud deck seemed to be heading closer. Thought maybe it was just me, but then I read this from Huntsville:

DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS CLOUD DECK TRAILING A COLD FRONT APPEARS SLOW TO ERODE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD DECK LOOKS NOW TO CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE SKY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN NW AL ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST. NE PORTIONS OF AL AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU IN TN MAY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY DAYBREAK BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE RAISED ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST...TO SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL STAY AROUND LONGER. THE LOW IN THE NE GULF HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED AND THE RESULTING PACKING OF ISOBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS LEAD TO A MAINTENANCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY COURSE THAN MODELS DEPICTED EARLIER...AND THUS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.


Not sure if this will have any bearing on our local weather, but perhaps more precip is in the cards for the mountains, at the very least.
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 10:26 pm

Hmmm very interesting.. East Tennessee could get a little more in on this now.

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 10:34 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Hmmm very interesting.. East Tennessee could get a little more in on this now.

Perhaps. Any further shifts to the north or west will definitely have an impact on sensible weather tomorrow/tomorrow night for East Tennessee. Guess we'll see come morning.
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 10:36 pm

WxFreak wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Hmmm very interesting.. East Tennessee could get a little more in on this now.

Perhaps. Any further shifts to the north or west will definitely have an impact on sensible weather tomorrow/tomorrow night for East Tennessee. Guess we'll see come morning.
It could be time to get out the shovels in the mountains... They could have some whiteout conditions at some points with the wind gusting to around 40 MPH... I wish I was in the APPS right now.

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 10:45 pm

The NAM has the rain chaning to snow here. If the track was a little more to the west they might get in on some of the more heavier snow.

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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-21, 10:48 pm

East Tn is already on the fringe of this thing as it heads up the coast. A little shift to the west, and we might see more than 30% coverage of precip tomorrow. Heck, I had a 90% chance of rain today, and didn't see a drop, so I sure will wait to make my own evaluation of this system after looking at the radar in the morning.
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Re: Late season Mtn snow

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-21, 10:51 pm

With this radar I can post and animated clip of the storm motion so I am going to leave the computer on so I can do so. This storm is going to be one for the record books I think.

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