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Atlantic Tropical Weather

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-18, 8:51 am

Anyone notice that on the last couple of frames of our WRF radar simulation that the upper level LP off the East Coast gets a bit more tightly wound circulation to it? Just an observation. popcorn
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-18, 5:27 pm

I noticed it also.. but the globals have been on this feature for a while. I bet its subtropical in nature...for the last couple of years I have noticed that tropical cyclones have had a tough time keeping their warm core at that latitude. It will be interesting to see how well of a low level circulation this LPS can maintain.

smoke


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-19, 7:54 am

Looks like a mini hurricane coming on shore on the WRF. There is some really tight rotation on it.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-19, 10:08 am



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXTDAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTSISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

Speed this loop up to clearly see the circulation

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=CLT&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-19, 1:19 pm

This one is organizing very quickly
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.





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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-19, 1:32 pm

It sure is getting stronger, you can see it off the coast on radar.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-19, 3:07 pm

Outflow bands stretching all the way into east TN wow




Nice radar loop here
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=rad®ion=Carolinas&numimages=12

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-19, 6:03 pm

Happy birthday Alberto. Located out from SC headed to the SE slowly will. More than likely turn towards the NE by Mon or Tuesday. beer
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-19, 7:47 pm

From NHC

ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-19, 10:38 pm

Poof!!!...lol


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-20, 9:14 am

Alberto is still trying to make a comeback from d-min last night. I thought d-min may had killed him but a look at visible satellite and one can see that he is still trying to put up a fight. Funny thing is NO model that I seen said he would get this far south.

He seems to be just cruising the warmer waters of the gulf stream at his discretion

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-20, 10:38 am

As Alberto gets further south the wind shear increases dramatically. He will probably get shredded the further south he goes. You can already see the shear taking effect as the cloud tops are getting blown off the low level center




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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-20, 5:09 pm

Off the coast of Georgia now, he is cruising in that warm water!

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-20, 11:40 pm

Its been a naked swirl all day long..maybe a rouge thunderstorm associated with it Laughing but it should have been declassified already..Conditions are not favorable for redevelopment either..


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-21, 10:02 pm

I cant believe they're still calling this thing a tropical storm lapat


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-22, 7:29 am

Last I saw he had winds of 40 MPH just enough to be a tropical storm.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-22, 8:53 am

Just because they estimate the winds at 40mph doesn't make it a tropical. Storm...t storm gusts can produce 40mph winds. The thing hasn't had any cold cloud tops around the center for three days. Its been a naked swirl...not a tropical cyclone

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-22, 6:19 pm

Toot wrote:Just because they estimate the winds at 40mph doesn't make it a tropical. Storm...t storm gusts can produce 40mph winds. The thing hasn't had any cold cloud tops around the center for three days. Its been a naked swirl...not a tropical cyclone
Doesn't matter anymore he is gone. Tropical Storm Bud could give Mexico a run for it's money.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-23, 8:39 pm

Another mini cyclone is popping on the models off the coast of the Carolinas..This one will probably be like the last one..start off looking good and turn into a naked swirl Laughing


lmao facepalm


One thing...the east coast seems to have plenty of upward motion this year for tropical cyclogenesis...they keep firing we are bound to get a nice one pals

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-24, 7:43 am

Toot wrote:Another mini cyclone is popping on the models off the coast of the Carolinas..This one will probably be like the last one..start off looking good and turn into a naked swirl Laughing


lmao facepalm

One thing...the east coast seems to have plenty of upward motion this year for tropical cyclogenesis...they keep firing we are bound to get a nice one pals

Hey Toot look what is coming off the coast of Africa right now, these storms usually travel east and they can sometimes effect the United States if the track is right.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-24, 6:14 pm

Adam2014 wrote:
Hey Toot look what is coming off the coast of Africa right now, these storms usually travel east and they can sometimes effect the United States if the track is right.

Yep..the African wave train is starting to pick up..but conditions dont usually become favorable for Cape Verde type storms until July.

Meanwhile..the 4Km NAM products for the SE coast

Surface pressure and 900Mb winds


Simulated satellite brightness



SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL ORTROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-24, 7:29 pm

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:
Hey Toot look what is coming off the coast of Africa right now, these storms usually travel east and they can sometimes effect the United States if the track is right.

Yep..the African wave train is starting to pick up..but conditions dont usually become favorable for Cape Verde type storms until July.

Meanwhile..the 4Km NAM products for the SE coast

Surface pressure and 900Mb winds


Simulated satellite brightness



SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL ORTROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
[
And not in the Atlantic but we have our first hurricane of the year. Hurricane Bud is a CAT 2 Hurricane!

But with the storm in the Atlantic, it is just getting sheared too much. You need those thunderstorms right on top of the circulation center to get good development. Right now the storm is tilted to the west, and winds from the west are shearing the cloud tops. I am sure you knew all of this I am just making a point for other members!


Last edited by Toot on 2012-05-24, 9:44 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : erased quoted pics)

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-24, 8:29 pm

Soon to be TS Beryl is being sheared right now... but a clear and vigorous low level circulation was evident on visible satellite today. As this gets a little further north.. the shear will relax and this low level center will wrap organized convection around it.. as this blossoms into a tropical storm.

It may at first be somewhat of a hybrid.. having both extratropical and tropical features..but it should become purely a warm core LPS as it nears the Carolinas. Then it looks like it will take a very similar path to the last one. IMO the latest models have been a little more bullish of this becoming stronger than just a weak TS.

Fanning of of the clouds can also be seen clearly on satellite which is a good indication of a vigorous circulation



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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-24, 8:40 pm

Here is a floater for the storm



Flash Loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-24, 8:43 pm

Adam2014 wrote:And not in the Atlantic but we have our first hurricane of the year. Hurricane Bud is a CAT 2 Hurricane!

This Bud's a 2!

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

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