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Atlantic Tropical Weather

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-24, 9:10 pm

NHC are now giving this a high chance of becoming a tropical/subtropical cyclone during the next 48hrs


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL ORSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-25, 7:28 am

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. && HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. rock on
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-25, 8:11 am

Well the low pressure system is still being sheared right now but it has definatley grew, I can see it becoming a little more organized but I still do not think it will become a depression or Tropical Storm. But like you said it could become extra tropical. It looks like it has a cold front on it right now. The Atlantic is already getting a little active.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-25, 8:12 am

Well Toot I had a pretty good argument yesterday but this thing is really strong. He is being sheared but more storms keep developing, once the shear moves away the storm should strengthen quite a bit. You win this time Toot! Hopefully I can get you one of these days!

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-25, 9:08 am

Adam its already extratropical...and the shear wont move away...the storm will move away from the shear. Also models have been suggesting this would form into a tropical cyclone for a few days now

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-25, 5:39 pm

Atlantic Invest 94L still has a pretty broad center of circulation


But the circulation seems to get tighter with each new frame. A little further north and the shear relaxes...when it gets away from the shear it should be able to maintain organized convection on all sides

It wouldnt surprise me if they declare it a subtropical depression late tonight and then Tropical storm Beryl Tomorrow some time.


Last edited by Toot on 2012-05-25, 10:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-25, 9:22 pm

NHC is now up to 100% with this one






SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-05-25, 9:28 pm

He's also showing up on radar now


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-08, 10:05 pm

The euro is closing off a weak tropical cyclone in the gulf in about a weeks time



Its about time...this boring weather is killing me. cliffdive

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-09, 7:44 am

Not closed off on this morning's Euro but there is a disturbance in the Gulf Of Mexico around that time period.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-09, 9:10 am

Adam2014 wrote:Not closed off on this morning's Euro but there is a disturbance in the Gulf Of Mexico around that time period.

You must be looking at something different than the 0z Euro Adam

0z Euro

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-09, 9:14 am

The 0z Canadian has the tropical cyclone too


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-09, 10:25 am

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Not closed off on this morning's Euro but there is a disturbance in the Gulf Of Mexico around that time period.

You must be looking at something different than the 0z Euro Adam

0z Euro
I see the problem, the EURO I was using was just North America. You could see the disturbance but you couldn't see the closed low.


Last edited by Toot on 2012-06-09, 3:35 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Image deletion)

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-09, 4:07 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I see the problem, the EURO I was using was just North America. You could see the disturbance but you couldn't see the closed low.

This is from this morning's CMC..it looks like it has a strong tropical cyclone threatening the gulf coast states


The FIM model is also showing a disturbance in the southern part of the gulf. The GFS seems to be the only hold out on this. It will be interesting to see how strong this system gets as the waters are quite ripe down there yikes


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-09, 4:38 pm

That looks very concerning for sure....

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-14, 8:14 am

Ok...nearly all global models are forming a tropical cyclone in the bay of Campeche...where in the gulf it goes from there is still up in the air.


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-17, 10:27 am

The CMC is still bringing this storm up to the gulf coastal areas while the others seem to say this is a more Tex/Mex storm. Either way it looks rather weak and sloppy

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-17, 10:38 am

Toot wrote:The CMC is still bringing this storm up to the gulf coastal areas while the others seem to say this is a more Tex/Mex storm. Either way it looks rather weak and sloppy
with upper level ridgiing in place over us now. doubt this thing will have any chance coming north to be honest with you.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-18, 9:50 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:with upper level ridgiing in place over us now. doubt this thing will have any chance coming north to be honest with you.

All models have came north today...lol Looks like the old CMC whooped the EURO's and the GFS's ass with this system. The canadian has had this consistently much further north than both those models torch

Here's todays 12z CMC



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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-19, 11:12 pm

Tropical storm Chris was declared today in the Northern Atlantic (NORTHERN Atlantic..lmao lapat )

I would argue that this is CLEARLY a subtropical storm and NOT a purely tropical one..but who would I argue with? Lol gun







Anyways..The Euro is now landfalling a TS in Florida.. when just two days ago it was landfalling this same system on the Mexican border. lmao

I dont think any of the models have a real hold on this systems track.. as none seem to be able to make up their minds if a troff picks this storm up and brings it northward or not.

Something interesting to watch anyways beer


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-20, 8:35 am

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 AM AST WED JUN 20 2012

CHRIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A COMMA-SHAPED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.

Based on that, I would have to agree that it has more of a sub-tropical structure.
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by jmundie on 2012-06-20, 11:13 am

You can still see the front on this thing.

Clearly not tropical.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-20, 4:18 pm

Storm on the EURO at hour 168 is closed off at 3 contours I have no idea if that is a lot. But it is interesting.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-20, 5:16 pm

Its making landfall during 168 also @ 998Mb...that would probably be in the range of a strong tropical storm/weak Hurricane.

A little stronger and this will becomes pretty serious yikes



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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-20, 6:15 pm

Definatley prime development there. Perfectly warm water for development.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

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