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Atlantic Tropical Weather

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-21, 7:24 am

Lorrrrrd Children!! The 0Z Euro has what looks to me to be a Hurricane in the gulf pals





That is a beast!!

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-21, 8:52 am

That is a monster right there, that is closed off by at least 10 or more contours lol.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-06-28, 8:44 am

The first organized African wave has been highlighted by the NHC



Will have to watch this as gets a little further west

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-28, 9:40 am

We need to change up the flow off the East Coast, so a tropical system can make a run at us and bring rain. Right now, the flow around our big HP is not conducive to let anything in.
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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by snowdog on 2012-06-28, 12:27 pm

Bastardi says the Tropics will be shut down for a couple of weeks. So I don't see any help coming from the gulf.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-07-27, 9:47 pm

Models are trying to develop a tropical wave that comes off Africa into a Cape Verde type system. The pattern displayed would suggest a Gulf threat in a couple of weeks if that pattern is correct and holds.


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-07-30, 8:55 am

History tells us that tropical activity should begin to pick up this time of year and a few of the global computer models are suggesting that tropical development may take place over the next few days.

The NHC has outlined a tropical wave for possible development. This system's path may end up affecting the united states at some point over the next couple of weeks. Something interesting to keep an eye on.




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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-01, 8:46 am

Looks like we are getting close to having a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-01, 3:47 pm

The tropical system in the central Atlantic has become much better organized today. It has a vigorous low level circulation that convection continues to fire around. The deciding factor of where this ends up is totally dependant on how strong the system becomes.

If it stays weak it will likely continue to move in its current trajectory with the westerly moving tradewinds. If it begins to intensify quickly it will gain latitude and threaten numerous land masses in the Carribean and possibly the Gulf Coast of the United States.

I personally dont think the eastern seaboard has much of a chance seeing this system make a landfall due to its already low latitude position. At any rate the NHC is giving this high chance at becoming a Tropical cyclone in the next 48 hrs. One could arguably already say its a Tropical depression but the NHC will make that call.



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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-01, 5:06 pm

And we have tropical depression number 5..lol


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-02, 9:00 am

Latest models on TD5




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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-17, 8:35 pm

What's that the GFS has in the Carribean? Why thats a tropical cyclone..and likely the most powerful yet in the Atlantic this season. It has the possibility of affecting the eastern US in a couple of weeks. Right now it's just a strong tropical wave off the African coast.


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-19, 2:23 pm

Still not much agreement among guidance models concerning the path of the rather large and vigorous tropical system (94L) in the central Atlantic. This system has gotten better organized today and could become a tropical cyclone at anytime.

The monster HPS to the system's north could keep the system from gaining much latitude. This means a GOM or an East Coast landfall is totally possible if the system crosses the Atlantic without becoming disorganized.

Looking at latest steering products I would put high odds of this at least making it into the Carribean.. but it will have some marginally tough enviroment to travel through over the next few days.

So just something worth watching right now!




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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-20, 6:31 pm

The tropical system in the central Atlantic is still not very organized this evening. It has been inhaling dry and dusty air which kills off any organized convection this system tries to form. Sooner or later it will move into a region where dry/dusty air wont be much of a problem but then it could encounter some land . So the intensity forecast could be quite tricky.

Just when everybody thought this one was gulf bound.. models are now switching it up again. The same areas that were threatened last year by Irene could very well be in the crosshairs of another hurricane.

That said..we will have to have an organized system before we start trying to predict where this one ends up. IMO all of the gulf coast region through FL and up the east coast are still in the ballgame..but for shits and giggles here are the latest spaghetti models!





Hotlinked updating images


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-08-20, 9:48 pm

^^That is definately going to be a rather large tropical cyclone when it kicks the dry air.




This storm could possibly landfall on the same day Irene did a year ago.

Here are some satellite shots I caught of the big girl Irene last year

Right before landfall


Right after landfall. I remember arguing that she was losing her tropical characteristics so I outlined her frontal structure. Very interesting storm she was...and quite HUGE!!

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-09-05, 8:29 am

Watch the gulf of mexico over the next couple of days as energy from the remnants of Isacc are back out over open water affraid


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-09-05, 6:50 pm

Toot wrote:Watch the gulf of mexico over the next couple of days as energy from the remnants of Isacc are back out over open water affraid


I have been curious about this the last few days. Not sure if I've ever seen one redevelop after making landfall over a week earlier. If it does would it still be,named Isaac?


Last edited by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-09-05, 6:55 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Spelled Isaac wrong, or did I?)

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-09-05, 7:01 pm

No it wouldnt be called Isaac nasty and you spelled Isaac correctly Razz This was just some post tropical energy leftover from Isaac that may reform into a new tropical storm.

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Nadine??

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-09-05, 7:26 pm

Toot wrote:No it wouldnt be called Isaac nasty and you spelled Isaac correctly Razz This was just some post tropical energy leftover from Isaac that may reform into a new tropical storm.

Google is my friend. If it does reform it will be named Nadine. If it's anything like the Nadine I used to know it could become large with a lot of moisture. cheers

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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-09-05, 8:00 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:If it's anything like the Nadine I used to know it could become large with a lot of moisture. cheers


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Re: Atlantic Tropical Weather

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