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June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

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June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-24, 6:33 pm

Very strong temperature difference.. with a very cool and dry canadian type airmass running into a hot and wet tropical type airmass. This could spell big trouble somewhere in the eastern US. Long ways out but SVR paramaters will probably be there with a raging upper jet.

If this happens one could look again to the negative NAO as the cause...models are really ramping up some anomalous high latitude blocking..We'll see rock on



Last edited by Vanster67 on 2012-06-02, 7:04 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : changed title to focus on severe chances for sun nt/mon)

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-24, 6:50 pm

Go on, I'm listening ....

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-24, 7:32 pm

Toot wrote:Very strong temperature difference.. with a very cool and dry canadian type airmass running into a hot and wet tropical type airmass. This could spell big trouble somewhere in the eastern US. Long ways out but SVR paramaters will probably be there with a raging upper jet.

If this happens one could look again to the negative NAO as the cause...models are really ramping up some anomalous high latitude blocking..We'll see rock on

Toot I am getting better in my videos I mention the temperature difference in my video! I am going to post it here so you can see!

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-24, 7:43 pm

Nice video Adam...I particularly liked the Tropical segment!!.. I dont I agree with you on the Atlantic low. It does look to obtain tropical storm status but like the last one its expected to be small and weak

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-24, 7:46 pm

Toot wrote:Nice video Adam...I particularly liked the Tropical segment!!.. I dont I agree with you on the Atlantic low. It does look to obtain tropical storm status but like the last one its expected to be small and weak
Well we have a friendly disagreement. Let us argue about this in the Atlantic Tropical Weather thread. A friendly argument that is.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-24, 7:52 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Well we have a friendly disagreement. Let us argue about this in the Atlantic Tropical Weather thread. A friendly argument that is.

Lmfao Laughing

I dont feel like arguing right now...you go ahead Razz

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-24, 7:55 pm

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Well we have a friendly disagreement. Let us argue about this in the Atlantic Tropical Weather thread. A friendly argument that is.

Lmfao Laughing

I dont feel like arguing right now...you go ahead Razz
Ahh come on now Toot!

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-25, 5:53 am

did someone mention severe weather ( yawn as i stretch)... i do like the look of the troughs position on this system... we could be seeing a nice mcs type feature develop out of this at least, dont kknow about a big outbreak yet. but holy cow, finally something to awake me... plus we really need the rain over here in west tn.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-25, 8:20 am

I'll get excited about this as it blows through my yard! facepalm
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-25, 6:05 pm

Confidence is increasing in the possibility of a SVR WX outbreak for the TN Valley. Several ensemble members are showing what could very well be a widespread severe wx outbreak near the first of June.


Stormtrack... strength...dynamics...and upper level support all seem to be there. We are still about a week out.. so I dont want to put all my chips in just yet... but it certainly looks like a classic clash of very different airmasses.

Here is the 12z GFS


12z Euro


12z Canadian


12z Nogaps


Pretty damn good agreement on this system!! The exact stormtrack will decide who sees the brunt of this... and the track is yet to be written in stone. Anyways...odds are pretty good for a track that is conducive for SVR here in TN

Consider me VERY intertested pals

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-25, 11:24 pm

My thoughts from earlier today:

"Next weekend is shaping up to be VERY interesting from a meteorological perspective. It looks like we're going to be undergoing a whole-scale pattern change...IF the data verifies. The PNA is progged to swing WAY positive, and at the same time, the NAO swings WAY negative. That should open the door for more "unsettled" weather across the Mid-South.

For the past few months, the teleconnections have been exactly opposite (-PNA and a +NAO). That has led to the summertime pattern we've been under: trough in the west, ridge in the east. That's modeled to change next weekend. Taken verbatim from the 6z GFS as the teleconnection change is occuring, a md-latitude cyclone forms over the upper Great Plains and meanders southeastward. As it gets closer, it strengthens, but also gets cut-off over the Ozarks (I will add that the 0z Euro doesn't cut this feature off at all, but shifts it southeastward across the TN Valley and into the drink via the SC coast). This geographic location, typically, has been quite favorable for severe weather across the Deep South, but the upper-level wind fields are rather weak, so I think widespread severe weather is unlikely.

What this WILL do though, is spawn a ~1000mb SLP that virtually just sits and spins over the Ozarks. It eventually migrates over to PAH and then into IN...but not before dragging a rather robust cold front with it. With instability values well over 1500 j/kg (and I could very well see these values increase to 2500 j/kg as we get closer to next weekend), with large LI's, and 70F dew points, isolated severe storms are a possibility. Although, with a progged temperature inversion, weak lapse rates, and no upper-level support, an outbreak of severe weather should remain highly unlikely. Could this change before next weekend? Absolutely...but it's going to take a lot for that to materialize.

As stated earlier, with the progged pattern change comes a change in temperatures. It appears as though, behind the frontal passage, highs don't look to get out of the 60s on June 2 and lows dip into the 40s. I think those temps are a bit overdone, but I could very well see a wide geographic swath of 70s across the Deep South. While those temps are seasonable, it's going to feel like paradise compared to the 90s we'll see this weekend."


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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-26, 8:12 am

Nice post Eric beer

The latest models seems to have nudged the stormtrack a hair to the south. Im rooting for this not to keep trending south because im hungry for some good action. Here's to hoping the 12z suite shows an epic storm system...lol Yeah I know.. wishful thinking huh?

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-26, 10:13 am

Toot wrote:Nice post Eric beer

The latest models seems to have nudged the stormtrack a hair to the south. Im rooting for this not to keep trending south because im hungry for some good action. Here's to hoping the 12z suite shows an epic storm system...lol Yeah I know.. wishful thinking huh?
plus 1 on the epic storm. i wish... this time of year, we usually dont have to worry about storm track being to far south.... usually the opposite. unless this thing gets cutoff and just drifts around then it may can get too far south. i am going to wait on the 12z models before i start to break anything down

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-26, 3:04 pm

The 12z Canadian would more than likely be a well organized SVR event for the OH and TN valleys.



Several GFS ensembles support this also. The Euro is still hanging too far south for organized SVR here

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-26, 9:51 pm

Here are the 18z Ensembles...alot of them have that loaded and cocked look for much of KY/TN yikes



The track of this system is going to be crucial as to who sees a bunch of rain and who sees an organized severe event. Im pretty convinced that there will be an organized SVR WX outbreak somewhere in the eastern U.S around June 1st.

I think that has become quite clear over today and yesterday. Who gets the favorable stormtrack is still up in the air at this point... but the odds of the most organized severe event in the eastern US since the first of March are pretty high IMO.

The weird thing is that this system looks like it will take place almost 3 months to the day since the March outbreak. sneaky

Here is one of the first convective outlooks I could find in the "March 2012 in like a lion" thread.


You should see a similar convective outlook pop up from the SPC here in the next couple of days!

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-26, 10:24 pm

The Gulf Of Mexico is wide open toot, this system looks like it will be wrapped up too. Very strong low pressure system should mean a very strong low level jet so we should have some shear in the atmosphere. I know it is too early to tell but the way this storm is looking on the models we could have some tornado potential.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-26, 10:36 pm

I think it's a bit early to jump aboard the hype train...1) the mean mid-level wind pattern is out of the W/NW. That does little to bring additional moisture to the party; 2) the upper-level wind fields rounding the base of the trough are weak, only ramping up once the trough itself has tracked well E of TN; 3) you're not going to see severe wx with a ~1000mb SLP parked over W TN...it's just not a favorable geographic position. With that being said, I do believe that we'll see thunder and some much-needed rain, but as far as an "outbreak" and "tornao potential", I seriously doubt it AS THE DATA STANDS NOW.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-26, 11:08 pm

No hype here...Im not sure how any tornado potential will play out..but an outbreak of severe weather somewhere in the eastern US is pretty much a given at this point...unless most of the models are just dead wrong. The cold front that this system drags across region is going to be really strong for this time of year.

The models say that there will be organized convection ahead and along this cold front. Its not gonna be sprinkles with the clash of such different airmasses. Im pretty confident that there is going to be a fireworks show somewhere.

I dont know what kind of fireworks or whether the show is going to take place in the Mid Atlantic...the Carolinas... TN Valley...or the OH Valley but im pretty sure its gonna be one of those regions...but hey I have been wrong before

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-26, 11:40 pm

This is from meteorologist Robert Gamble...AKA Foothills over at American



Lots Going on over the next week to ten days. Possible "Beryl" turning into a rare Georgia coast tropical impact: Mini-Heat Wave Tenn. Valley/Deep South ; Then wet Southeast from tropical remnants and a front, then a *Possible* Major widespread tornado outbreak from Texas to the Lakes, sweeping east May 31, June 1 as very strong trough barrels into the Eastern US

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-27, 1:19 am

Toot wrote:This is from meteorologist Robert Gamble...AKA Foothills over at American


Lots Going on over the next week to ten days. Possible "Beryl" turning into a rare Georgia coast tropical impact: Mini-Heat Wave Tenn. Valley/Deep South ; Then wet Southeast from tropical remnants and a front, then a *Possible* Major widespread tornado outbreak from Texas to the Lakes, sweeping east May 31, June 1 as very strong trough barrels into the Eastern US
wash wash wash wash

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-27, 7:02 am

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AMID A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF SOUTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION/UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN DAYS 4-6
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MAGNITUDE/TIMING
VARY. FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...WHILE FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE A
DELINEATION OF ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK AREAS...IT DOES SEEM
LIKELY THAT A SLIGHT RISK CALIBER SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OK/NORTHWEST TX AMID WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OTHER SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH.

WHILE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND DAY 4...IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO AREAS
SUCH AS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS AND LOWER-MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY BY DAY
5/THURSDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A
SEVERE THREAT MAY SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY DAY 6/FRIDAY...WHILE OTHER UPSLOPE

AIDED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NM/CO FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. wash wash wash
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-27, 7:13 am

Now, instead of getting excited when and if this will blow through my yard, I am just hoping and wanting it to come on through!! beer
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-27, 8:17 am

The GFS and its ensembles have come south and therefore there is little if any SVR threat here in TN. The Candian still represents an outbreak of SVR wx. The 0z Euro is rather weak but has a favorable track IMO. Let the model mayhem begin

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-27, 8:54 am

Here is the 0z Canadian since it seems pretty interesting yikes






There again are several simialrities to the Early march system

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-27, 9:14 am

I don't like to see the GFS so far south, although as we have all experienced the GFS tends to lose storms about 3 or 4 days out. IT could be completely right though, I wll have to await further model runs before I put out a prediction.

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