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June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

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Post by Adam2014 2012-05-29, 11:19 pm

[img]June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Bulk_s11[/img]

Even some more shear on the 0z NAM, I know I have been harping shear...
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Post by Vanster67 2012-05-30, 8:11 am

June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 35li4i1
June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Day2probotlk_0600_any


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY TO TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CONSIDERABLE LATE MAY UPPER TROUGH WILL STEADILY AMPLIFY WHILE
OTHERWISE SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THURSDAY. SOME STORM/MESOSCALE-DRIVEN FORECAST DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A BROAD AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EXIST TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.

...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAN AN MCS AND/OR ITS ASSOCIATED
REMNANTS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/AN MCV...WILL BE
EARLY DAY FACTORS COME THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO THE ADJACENT MS
RIVER VALLEY. PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...POSSIBLE OUTFLOW/MCV INFLUENCES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY/EFFECTIVE INFLUENCING FACTORS THAT AID SUBSEQUENT STORM
DEVELOPMENT/REINVIGORATION INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE
WITHIN A RELATIVELY BROAD MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PRE-COLD
FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN
VALLEY/PERHAPS LOWER OH VALLEY...WHERE POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH SOME TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITY NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD CONVECTIVE MODE PERMIT.


A SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE/ULTIMATELY REACH AS FAR
EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...PERHAPS EVEN WITH A NOCTURNAL/EARLY FRIDAY
INCREASE. THIS WOULD BE AIDED BY THE ONSET OF A CYCLONE DEEPENING
PHASE/TREND TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL TILT UPPER TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD. AS SUCH...DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME TORNADO RISK COULD EXIST IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

...RIO GRANDE TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...
WHILE THE STRONGER WESTERLIES/PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE RELATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION /GENERALLY ARKLATEX
NORTHEASTWARD/...FRONTAL UPLIFT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION AMID VEERING WIND
PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE.

...FL/SOUTHERN GA...
AT LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN FL AND PERHAPS SOUTH GA.
DOWNBURSTS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST
UPDRAFTS.

..GUYER.. 05/30/2012
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Post by Adam2014 2012-05-30, 9:09 am

[img]June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Nam_vo10[/img] Nam Vorticity as the front is in Middle Tennessee.

[img]June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Nam_vo11[/img]Nam Vorticity as the front enters East Tennessee.

[img]June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Nam_bu10[/img]Some shear is present but look at the 60 knts worth of shear in Ohia.
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Post by Eric 2012-05-30, 9:25 am

I still don't see it. Timing's going to play a huge issue with who sees what, and I'm starting to think that folks west of I-65 won't see anything substantial. I personally haven't seen a severe weather event unfold from an H5 trough - closed or open - arrive via northwest flow. Areas east of the Plateau, though, will need to watch how things unfold if the 12z NAM is right, as the closed H5 low transitions to a more northeasterly migration across the OH Valley.

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Post by Toot 2012-05-30, 4:39 pm

12z LSX WRF
June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Mslp_33
June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Mslp_42
June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Mslp_45
June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Mslp_48
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Post by Toot 2012-05-30, 4:57 pm

Not looking like a huge Tornado threat here in TN..but im starting to think places in Kentucky could see a few TORS and it wouldnt surprise me to see the SPC target that area.

That said..it still looks like a widespread wind and hail event to my eyes. You really couldnt ask for a better setup in terms of instability and lift. Keep in mind if shear values are underdone this situation could be alot more dangerous. There could also be a rogue TOR or two here in TN due to triple point type dynamics. Again.. the main threats look to be large hail and damaging winds.

Now its on to the next run of models pals
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Post by Eric 2012-05-30, 4:59 pm

Toot wrote:Not looking like a huge Tornado threat here in TN..but im starting to think places in Kentucky could see a few TORS and it wouldnt surprise me to see the SPC target that area.

That said..it still looks like a widespread wind and hail event to my eyes. You really couldnt ask for a better setup in terms of instability and lift. Keep in mind if shear values are underdone this situation could be alot more dangerous. There could also be a rogue TOR or two here in TN due to triple point type dynamics. Again.. the main threats look to be large hail and damaging winds.

Now its on to the next run of models pals

I'll buy that... afro

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Post by Toot 2012-05-30, 8:55 pm

I about shat my pants when I seen this on DT's FB page...lulz Laughing

*** ALERT ** ALERT ** * FRIDAY JUNE 1... the Lower Middle Atlantic Region-- Northern half of NC all of WVA VA MD DE -- will se the HIGHEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK of the season so far and POSSIBLY ..POSSIBLY the biggest threat THIS area has seen in the past few years
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Post by Toot 2012-05-30, 11:07 pm

There is a pretty impressive setup for the mid atlantic.. but im not sure its the biggest threat there in the last few years...lol Anyways the 0z nam trended a little more favorable for tornado possibilities in the eastern part of the state...will have to keep an eye on this.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-05-31, 12:10 am

I like the way y'all talk.

June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 2mcjfbn
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Post by WxFreak 2012-05-31, 8:36 am

Per MRX AFD:

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN INDICATING A REASONABLE SHOT FOR AN ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /PARTICULARLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS/ FROM AN MCS FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS INSTABILITY VALUES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 03Z OR SO. THUS...DESPITE THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THAT COULD EXPERIENCE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z ON FRIDAY /AFTER INSTABLITY VALUES HAVE DECREASED/.

BASED ON THIS THINKING...HAVE SCALED BACK MENTIONABLE POPS SOMEWHAT TODAY /REMOVING THEM COMPLETELY FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 18Z/...BEFORE GRADUALLY RAMPING THEM UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS /WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREAS BEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES/. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN PLACE /WITH 0-1 KM VALUES AOA 20-25 KTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AOA 40-45 KTS/...SOME STRONG AND FAIRLY ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THEY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS/HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THE TIMING SHAKES OUT LATER TODAY. BUT...GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES/LIMITING FACTORS...EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS THREAT WILL BE IS STILL UNCLEAR ATTM.

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Post by Homemommy 2012-05-31, 10:02 am

Hey. Just wondering how far out does your models go? Got a beach trip to Myrtle, leaving the 15th, and anxious to see if the weather will be good.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-05-31, 11:48 am

Homemommy wrote:Hey. Just wondering how far out does your models go? Got a beach trip to Myrtle, leaving the 15th, and anxious to see if the weather will be good.

I'm leaving on the 16th for Myrtle as well! I'll be glued to the models right along with you. They go out very far but we won't have anything reliable to look at until a week or less out. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Perhaps a tropical event could be detected farther out.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-05-31, 2:54 pm

Southwest TN about to have some fun.

Thursday 2:53pm:

June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Kcgj93
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-05-31, 4:33 pm

Thursday 4:32pm:

June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 5phis1
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Post by WxFreak 2012-06-01, 8:22 am

No severe here. Just a few rumbles of thunder in the night and this morning. Woke up to just over a half inch of rain.
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Post by Toot 2012-06-01, 8:30 am

WxFreak wrote:No severe here. Just a few rumbles of thunder in the night and this morning. Woke up to just over a half inch of rain.

This whole system has been a little weaker than advertised...makes one think that it may not get as cold as the models say. Kudos to Eric for nailing this one. Anyways there is a clearing before the cold front gets here but I think the severe threat is pretty low as all the junk convection has pretty much stabelized the atmosphere. Might be different story in the mid Atlantic today.
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Post by Vanster67 2012-06-01, 8:32 am

Same here!! Severe?? What severe!! No thunder, no rain yesterday, however it has been raining since about 5 am or so this morning. This has been an odd year for weather (patterns) and the what not. Another chance of rain in early next week or so. We shall see. Just some thunder and lightning, maybe a single gust of wind! Is that to much too ask? lapat
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-06-01, 8:58 am

Had a nice quick little storm roll up the valley and hit me last night around 8pm. The wind got rather gusty and the wife and I noticed the clouds swirling around in an odd fashion. It poured rain but only lasted 10 minutes or so. Got several other periods of rain and some thunder through the night but overall it was pretty tame. I'm hoping my rain barrels had a chance to fill up as they've been tapped out lately.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-06-01, 9:48 am

Looks like one more band of showers/t-showers moving toward East TN this morning, and then it's over for our area. Awesome weather this weekend. Time to turn the air off, and open the windows!
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-06-01, 11:40 am

This band is bringing heavy sideways blowing rain in downtown Knoxville right now.

Friday 11:39am:

June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 20kewzo
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Post by Toot 2012-06-01, 4:43 pm

SPC went moderate in a small spot in the Mid Atlantic...discrete cells are starting to fire to the east of us and some of them are rotating..might be a long night on the east coast yikes

Images are time dependant
June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Anim_nerc


June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Day1otlk_2000
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Post by Toot 2012-06-01, 6:51 pm

Check out the bowing structure of that line near PA uh oh

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Post by Vanster67 2012-06-02, 6:59 am

This mornings latest from BNA concerning possible strong to severe storms Sunday night/Monday. 000
FXUS64 KOHX 020843
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.SHORT TERM (THRU MON)...
SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. WARMER
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE UPR 70S W OF THE PLATEAU. A WEAK H5 WAVE WL PASS NORTH OVR
THE OHVLY WITH MORE CLOUDS.

SFC HIGH PRES WL REMAIN NEAR THE CNTL GULF COAST TNGT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. NOT AS COOL WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARMER SUNDAY UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS UPR 70S PLAT TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL.

SFC LOW PRES WL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTN. THE
LOW WL TRACK SLWLY EAST WITH UPR SUPPORT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WL APPROACH SUN NGT...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO REGION WITH A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY...WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. COULD BE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
LOW PRES SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO MID
TN MON NGT-TUE. LINGERING RW/TRW. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
WED. KEPT THE FAR EXTENDED DRY AS WELL...WITH SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.

&&


Hazardous weather outlook from BNA this morning.
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
512 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AREA LAKES
AND RIVERS...AS WELL AS SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID STATE ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPARK A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.


$$

Any thoughts from ya'll on the possibilities here? popcorn
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Post by WxFreak 2012-06-02, 7:25 am

An almost clipper like system dropping south into our area Monday into Tuesday could generate some active weather region wide. QPF possibilities for the next three days would put most of the convection in west and south Tennessee. However, I'm sure this map will change some as the exact track of the system, and any MCS that may form, comes better into focus.

June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 D13_fi10
WxFreak
WxFreak
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June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities. - Page 5 Empty Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

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