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June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-02, 7:41 am

One thing is for sure--it's going to be a very cool week by June standards. Highs will struggle to hit 80 most of the week as the trough over the eastern U.S. is constantly reinforced and kept in place. Everyone enjoy. (Unless you plan on visiting the pool)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-06-02, 9:12 am

WxFreak wrote:An almost clipper like system dropping south into our area Monday into Tuesday could generate some active weather region wide.


I noticed the same thing...this is a pattern one sees in January/Febuary and if it was January that system would definately be a strong clipper lmao

Anyways its a very strange track to get severe from a synoptic scale low pressure system. I guess they are assuming that this LPS will generate an MCS or two.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-02, 11:43 am

Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:An almost clipper like system dropping south into our area Monday into Tuesday could generate some active weather region wide.


I noticed the same thing...this is a pattern one sees in January/Febuary and if it was January that system would definately be a strong clipper lmao

Anyways its a very strange track to get severe from a synoptic scale low pressure system. I guess they are assuming that this LPS will generate an MCS or two.
thats what exactly MEG is saying,a strong mcs system toomorrow night, they are even saying a iso tornado threat tomorrow night... i havent looked at this very hard... spc isnt very excited yet

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-02, 12:25 pm

Awesome weather to work outside today. You couldn't ask for better temps. Right now we are in the upper 60's, IN JUNE at NOON. We could easily be pushing 90's right now. I only wish every June day in Tennessee could be like this one.
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-02, 12:49 pm

affraid
Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:An almost clipper like system dropping south into our area Monday into Tuesday could generate some active weather region wide.


I noticed the same thing...this is a pattern one sees in January/Febuary and if it was January that system would definately be a strong clipper

Anyways its a very strange track to get severe from a synoptic scale low pressure system. I guess they are assuming that this LPS will generate an MCS or two.

Yes, this pattern is very atypical for summer, just as our pattern for winter was unusual. It's almost as if we had a summer pattern in winter, and a winter pattern as we move into summer. FREAKY!! affraid
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-06-02, 2:05 pm

WxFreak wrote:

Yes, this pattern is very atypical for summer, just as our pattern for winter was unusual. It's almost as if we had a summer pattern in winter, and a winter pattern as we move into summer. FREAKY!! affraid

Lol...seasonal disorganization for the win. If you knocked me out for a few days and I woke up today...I would swear that we are already headed into fall by the brisk n winds in the air and the cool temps at night affraid

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-02, 5:15 pm

I spent almost the whole day outside working, and hardly broke a sweat. Cool temps, and a good breeze made it feel more like late September than early June. I could get used to this!! Is this summer in Tennessee, or did we move to Minnesota when I wasn't looking??
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-06-03, 9:42 am

looks like the shaft for most of east TN mad




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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-03, 6:27 pm

AFDMRX

[url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION]AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION[/url]
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS REGION SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL GA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTEX OVER THE OZARKS REGION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TN TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST TN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TRACK OF TONIGHT`S COMPLEX. THIS NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-06-03, 10:12 pm

Pretty rough stuff out in west TN. I reckon there was a confirmed tornado out that way... Of course not a word here from Adam club

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-04, 12:05 am

Toot wrote:Pretty rough stuff out in west TN. I reckon there was a confirmed tornado out that way... Of course not a word here from Adam club
i may notbe adam, but i can vouch on the stuff here in west tn... i have been out all evening long with it... nothing confirmed just yet... but cell just to the west of me an hour ago had nice gate to gate shear for a min or so... rotation was decent, but all i could find was a nice wall cloud when it was lightning pretty damn good. 2 counties to the west of me reported baseball size hail... i didnt get to make it that far. we may be ssing a rpeat of this by early morning... lates nam sounding indicate another stout mcs to come through.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-06-04, 1:17 am

Hope it comes my way.

Don't know. It looks like most of the good stuff will stay to my west. Just have to wait and see. mad


Last edited by Vanster67 on 2012-06-04, 5:44 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : saw the latest SPC outlook!)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-06-04, 8:10 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:i may notbe adam, but i can vouch on the stuff here in west tn... i have been out all evening long with it... nothing confirmed just yet... but cell just to the west of me an hour ago had nice gate to gate shear for a min or so... rotation was decent, but all i could find was a nice wall cloud when it was lightning pretty damn good. 2 counties to the west of me reported baseball size hail... i didnt get to make it that far. we may be ssing a rpeat of this by early morning... lates nam sounding indicate another stout mcs to come through.

Looks like another one did form and go through your area. Did it wake you out of the bed Bruce?

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-04, 8:24 am

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:i may notbe adam, but i can vouch on the stuff here in west tn... i have been out all evening long with it... nothing confirmed just yet... but cell just to the west of me an hour ago had nice gate to gate shear for a min or so... rotation was decent, but all i could find was a nice wall cloud when it was lightning pretty damn good. 2 counties to the west of me reported baseball size hail... i didnt get to make it that far. we may be ssing a rpeat of this by early morning... lates nam sounding indicate another stout mcs to come through.

Looks like another one did form and go through your area. Did it wake you out of the bed Bruce?
yes sir, it sure did toot... i guess the timing of this one, it wasnt as severe as the first one... but man we got some much needed rain... hoping for a nice recovery today and just maybe we can get another one... but i look for it to go more south... time will tell

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-06-04, 8:27 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:yes sir, it sure did toot... i guess the timing of this one, it wasnt as severe as the first one... but man we got some much needed rain... hoping for a nice recovery today and just maybe we can get another one... but i look for it to go more south... time will tell

Thanks for filling us in Bruce...and I agree. The next one that forms will likely be to the south of the state as the boundary has drifted further south mad .


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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-04, 9:15 am

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:yes sir, it sure did toot... i guess the timing of this one, it wasnt as severe as the first one... but man we got some much needed rain... hoping for a nice recovery today and just maybe we can get another one... but i look for it to go more south... time will tell

Thanks for filling us in Bruce...and I agree. The next one that forms will likely be to the south of the state as the boundary has drifted further south mad .

no problem toot, you know i enjoy the weather just about as much as anyone... i will start to get to post more as thank god my job is back to normal for a while... 40 hours vs 72 hours a week... plus maybe this will be theme for this summer, stay in a nw flow and get to enjoy some nice mcs events... and if were lucky enough, just maybe a derecho... beer


Last edited by Toot on 2012-06-05, 7:17 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Removed quoted image..grrrrr)

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-06-04, 11:17 am

I have not got to post much lately myself. Busy working. It was nice to have some excitement last night. Dyersburg even got to knock the dust off of the warning sirens.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-06-04, 11:22 am

Really glad the western part of the state got some much needed rain. Hope it continues.
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-04, 11:58 am

Dyersburg Weather wrote:I have not got to post much lately myself. Busy working. It was nice to have some excitement last night. Dyersburg even got to knock the dust off of the warning sirens.
us also dyersburg... sirens went off around 9 or so. course i was out n about on top of it.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-06-04, 7:40 pm

SVR watch out for parts of west and middle TN mad

For the love of god...can we east Tennesseans get some action club

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-04, 10:26 pm

new meso for my area, looks like i will be enjoyinig my second night in row of a nice mcs event... its very hunid and unstable outside still dew points running around 73... storms seem to be getting more organized up in western ky and mo. boothill...

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-06-05, 3:46 am

Toot wrote:SVR watch out for parts of west and middle TN mad

For the love of god...can we east Tennesseans get some action club

We got some rain here. No severe that I was or am aware of.


Last edited by Toot on 2012-06-05, 7:18 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : el quoteo imageo)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-05, 6:22 am

I had a pretty decent rain during the night--over a half an inch. Heard several LOUD and unusual sounding booms of thunder. Sounded more like an artillery shell exploding on top of the house. When I first woke up, I wasn't sure what was going on because it didn't sound like "normal" thunder. Anyway, thankful for the rain, as rather dry weather with increasing temps looks to dominate the rest of the week after tomorrow.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF A RIDGE. THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS TRY TO
SHOW A WEAKNESS BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD
THE MID SOUTH. WITH RIDGING PRESSING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STAYED THE COURSE KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY
AS RIDGING SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO MEX MOS GUIDANCE WHICH FEATURES A
WARMING TREND WHICH ENDS UP WITH MAX TEMPS APPROXIMATELY FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-06-05, 9:08 am

Very glad to get the rain. I wasn't really expecting anything from this even though NWS kept me at 40% chance. Hoping the rain barrels got topped off. And, as much as I usually don't care for a big ridge, I'm actually happy to see one setting up for the weekend as I'm going camping.

[insert Carlton dance pic here]
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-05, 10:59 am

GFS rain totals for next week appear to show that our ridge won't be a "death" ridge for long, if it verifies. Looks as if the ridge slowly drifts east, and by next week its far enough east to draw Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area on southwesterly winds. More moisture leads to an increase in instability showers and thunderstorms as next week progresses.



Day 7 shows our ridge off the East Coast, and the moisture pump from the Gulf goes into high gear.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg
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