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June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-27, 9:27 am

From JAN (Jackson MS)


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...STILL LOOKING LIKE A RELATIVELY BIG EARLY JUNE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ON TAP THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR OUR REGION SURROUNDING THIS FROPA.

CONCERNING THE ACTUAL FROPA PERIOD (LATER THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY)...MEX POPS INITIALLY LOOKED A LITTLE LOW BUT I HESITATED TO RAISE MUCH AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING TIMING QUESTION MARKS. CONSIDERING IT WILL BE EARLY JUNE...MODEL CONSENSUS IS SHOWING SURPRISINGLY LOW PRESSURES AND HIGH WIND SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS. IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...BUT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL ELECTED TO KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW SINCE THE EXPECTED EVENT IS AT LEAST 5 DAYS OUT AND THERE REMAINS RATHER BIG TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. EXPECT THE HWO TO BEGIN MENTIONING STORM RISK PRETTY SOON IF MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUITY WITH SYSTEM POTENCY AND START TO AGREE MORE CLOSELY ON TIMING

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-27, 1:33 pm

The 12z CMC looks about the same as the 0Z but it looks like its trying to cut off as it comes east. The 12z GFS came back north but its pretty strung out and weak looking. Waiting on the ensembles and the Euro to see if they hold something more interesting.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-27, 1:34 pm

the cmc is still holding out hope for a severe weather threat for the midsouth, the gfs is still to far south, awaiting for the 12z euro... at this point, i just take some good , my yard about to burn up.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-27, 1:51 pm

The ensembles are back north again rock on

IMO Several of them suggest organized severe weather from about Nashville eastward



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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-27, 6:19 pm

Starting to trend back, this mornings trends had me worried that we were just going to see heavy rain.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-27, 8:54 pm

18z GooFuS really dropped a deuce tonight. Not going to believe it until it has more support from the op runs.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-27, 9:09 pm

Eric wrote:18z GooFuS really dropped a deuce tonight. Not going to believe it until it has more support from the op runs.
wow, just got in from the pool... you got that right eric... nice setup for being such late in the severe season... nice shear and directional at that... thinking we will at least see a nice mcs ... i am like you eric, want to see more agreement... but 18z is gotmy attention.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-27, 9:33 pm

Most of the ensembles and the 12z Canadian look very similar to the 18z GFS. Gonna be one strong front coming through for this time of year.. but exact track still not agreed on by all the globals.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by andyhb on 2012-05-28, 1:22 am

Hey guys, been awhile since I've posted here, but looking at the model runs over the past several days, there are several things going for this and they have been highlighted by many posters.

With that said, if you were to modify the H85 jet profile a bit on the 00z GFS, you'd be looking at a pretty primed directional shear setup for some tornadoes next week around June 1st/2nd. Instability/moisture look good at this point (and why shouldn't they, this is the SE in Late May/June), and the speed shear is certainly there...this is certainly something to keep an eye on.

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PDS Tornado Watch 235 Probabilities (AL/MS/GA/TN on April 27th, 2011)
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 1:25 am

andyhb wrote:Hey guys, been awhile since I've posted here, but looking at the model runs over the past several days, there are several things going for this and they have been highlighted by many posters.

With that said, if you were to modify the H85 jet profile a bit on the 00z GFS, you'd be looking at a pretty primed directional shear setup for some tornadoes next week around June 1st/2nd. Instability/moisture look good at this point (and why shouldn't they, this is the SE in Late May/June), and the speed shear is certainly there...this is certainly something to keep an eye on.
yep andy, you know i have my eye on this... i am kind of shock of what i am seeing on models this evening... its been a while, plus its late in season... but with the nao going to tank out, thats usually spells a strom system with big impacts on the onset of it

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-28, 1:26 am

Thanks Andy, great to hear from you. Very Happy
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by andyhb on 2012-05-28, 1:30 am

Thanks for the welcome guys, I always enjoy posting in the SE thread on AmericanWx, this forum, TalkWx and TennesseeWx. Will likely be posting more here as the models work out this potential, certainly not every day (or year for that matter) that you see something like this progged as we move towards meteorological summer.

00z CMC looks good, and possibly for the Mid South as well on Thursday.

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Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by andyhb on 2012-05-28, 5:03 am

New D 4-8:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AMID A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CONUS/CANADA...AND WITH AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY 3
PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON
DAYS 4-5 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THAT SAID...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
EXISTS AMONGST 00Z-BASED ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF AMPLIFICATION/TIMING.

WHILE THIS GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES SPECIFIC DELINEATIONS OF
30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISK AREAS...SEVERE TSTMS /POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/ CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED.
FOR DAY
4/THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT PENDING MESOSCALE DETAILS FROM THE PRIOR
DAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE
OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...AND PERHAPS
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS MID-ATLANTIC STATES /ESPECIALLY
PER THE FASTER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION/. THEREAFTER...EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

..GUYER.. 05/28/2012

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Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 8:36 am

interesting afd out of kpah, thats paducah ky. just to the north of megs forecast area,they are saying a significant severe outbreak with tornadoes even. wow !

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-28, 8:46 am

thanks for the heads up on this afd, TN Storm!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
406 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE UNSEASONABLE NEAR RECORD WARMTH
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING RIDGE
JUXTAPOSED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL
KEEP UNSEASONABLE NEAR RECORD WARMTH IN PLACE TODAY...AS HIGHS
AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S. SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND...PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS TO
ADDRESS THE HEAT ONE MORE DAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME
SPLOTCHY QPF ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE NAM IS NOW DRY ALONG WITH THE ECMWF. WILL STICK WITH A DRY
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS IS LIKELY MOISTENING UP THE LOWER THERMAL
PROFILE TOO QUICKLY.

BY TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT EAST TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH TONIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...COVERAGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE SPARSE AND THOSE THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN MAY NOT
GET THAT MUCH. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE CLOSE
TO 90. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 80S...AND THIS WILL PAVE THE
WAY FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL END TO THE WEEK...


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM WILL COME WITH CHCS FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK THU/THU NIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRI AM OVER OUR FAR
EAST.

THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT MOST POINT TO SOME CHANCE OF
STRONG CONVECTION THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODEL OF PREFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE WAS A OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING
A DEEP...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF UP THE MID MS RIVER AN LOWER OH
VALLEYS BY FRI. SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER BY THU AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THU AFTN/EVENING. DECENT MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LEADING TO AT
LEAST A RISK OF THE ENTIRE BAG/TYPE OF SEVERE STORMS. HIGH HELICITY
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND
STRONG MID LVL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEG TILT OF THE H50
TROF WOULD CREATE EXTENSIVE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT.
THUS...EVEN A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DEVELOPS.

AFTER THAT...WE WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH A BRIEF STINT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO...AS PLENTY OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SFC BASED LI`S IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AGAIN..THE WHOLE GAMBIT OF SEVERE
TYPES WOULD BE POSSIBLE...FROM LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
A FEW TORNADOES. COULD BE SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE REALLY SHIFTED TO A COOLER AND POSSIBLY DAMP WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SAT...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
BRISK NW WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUDS FOR SAT AND BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT
MORE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MAX TEMPS HOLD IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 BOTH FRI AND SAT. BIG CHANGES IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES H AFT 00Z SO
HANDLED WITH VCTS AND CB. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFT 16Z.

&& sneaky
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 8:49 am

Vanster67 wrote:thanks for the heads up on this afd, TN Storm!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
406 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE UNSEASONABLE NEAR RECORD WARMTH
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING RIDGE
JUXTAPOSED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL
KEEP UNSEASONABLE NEAR RECORD WARMTH IN PLACE TODAY...AS HIGHS
AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S. SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND...PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS TO
ADDRESS THE HEAT ONE MORE DAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME
SPLOTCHY QPF ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE NAM IS NOW DRY ALONG WITH THE ECMWF. WILL STICK WITH A DRY
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS IS LIKELY MOISTENING UP THE LOWER THERMAL
PROFILE TOO QUICKLY.

BY TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT EAST TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH TONIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...COVERAGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE SPARSE AND THOSE THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN MAY NOT
GET THAT MUCH. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE CLOSE
TO 90. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 80S...AND THIS WILL PAVE THE
WAY FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL END TO THE WEEK...


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM WILL COME WITH CHCS FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK THU/THU NIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRI AM OVER OUR FAR
EAST.

THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT MOST POINT TO SOME CHANCE OF
STRONG CONVECTION THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODEL OF PREFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE WAS A OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING
A DEEP...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF UP THE MID MS RIVER AN LOWER OH
VALLEYS BY FRI. SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER BY THU AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THU AFTN/EVENING. DECENT MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LEADING TO AT
LEAST A RISK OF THE ENTIRE BAG/TYPE OF SEVERE STORMS. HIGH HELICITY
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND
STRONG MID LVL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEG TILT OF THE H50
TROF WOULD CREATE EXTENSIVE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT.
THUS...EVEN A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DEVELOPS.

AFTER THAT...WE WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH A BRIEF STINT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO...AS PLENTY OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SFC BASED LI`S IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AGAIN..THE WHOLE GAMBIT OF SEVERE
TYPES WOULD BE POSSIBLE...FROM LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
A FEW TORNADOES. COULD BE SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE REALLY SHIFTED TO A COOLER AND POSSIBLY DAMP WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SAT...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
BRISK NW WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUDS FOR SAT AND BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT
MORE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MAX TEMPS HOLD IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 BOTH FRI AND SAT. BIG CHANGES IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES H AFT 00Z SO
HANDLED WITH VCTS AND CB. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFT 16Z.

&& sneaky
your welcome van, and thanx for pasting that buddy rock on

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 11:02 am

It looks like the ensembles have zeroed in on a track and the TN Valley looks to be right in the middle an area that will be primed for widespread SVR

Unreal temp difference at 850 ahead and behind the front per 0z GFS



Looks something you would see in Febuary or November yikes

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-28, 11:43 am

Interesting developments from the globals since late last week. Most of the solutions presented support some organized thunder, but prospects of any widespread event, IMO, are being tempered by several factors which I will detail in this discussion.

Synoptically, both the Euro and the GFS present a well-organized closed ULL migrating through the central Ozarks, bringing with it a ~1000mb SLP (past data runs have kept this feature from strengthening, therefore mitigating lower level convergence. If this feature were to strengthen, it would enhance the severe threat). The air mass ahead of the system will be rather spring-like, with temperatures ahead of the cold front in the mid-to-upper 70s and dew points in the upper 60s.

Timing of frontal passage is where the global solutions diverge. The 6z GFS brings it through BNA during prime afternoon heating (1pm), while the 0z Euro brings it through during the early morning with the severe threat being lessened. Not sure which global is correct. As the timeframe gets closer, the timeframe will become clear.

Factors that could mitigate the severe threat are numerous, IMO; the ULL is progged to swing through rather quickly, so any window of severe weather will be quite narrow. Once the ULL moves off to the northeast, the mid-level winds turn out of the northwest, effectively ending the severe threat. H3 wind profiles are unimpressive (given the progged geographic position of the SLP, it could enhance upper-level support, providing enough lift for organized severe weather. That won't/can't be determined until we get closer to gametime). Skew-Ts look rather unimpressive, as well, with wind fields remaining unidirectional with height. Instability looks to be rather abundant and temperature profiles look very good, but with weak lapse rates and little to no deep layer shear (the 0-6km bulk shear ramps WAY up, but only AFTER the ULL has pulled off to the northeast), any enhanced severe threat - i.e. tornado potentail - will remain isolated in nature.

While the system looks to be very dynamic in nature, several mitigating factors look to lessen it's effects. Most of the severe threat, IMO, will be marginal, mainly with a damaging wind and hail threat as the QLCS (frontal passage) rotates through. If some cells were to develop ahead of the QLCS, those would obviously have the best shot at producing a tornado, but that seems to carry a rather small possibility. Further model runs will offer a clearer picture of the system as the data is sure to shift back and forth several times during the upcoming days.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 12:07 pm

MEG
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT CREATING OUR BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAKE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO THIS MORNING AS STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C COMBINED WITH A 50 TO 60 KNOT MID LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO BETTER CONVECTION ORGANIZATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUITE NICELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

HUN
THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY GET A LITTLE INTERESTING AS A RELATIVELY INTENSE UPR LOW FOR THE LATE MAY TO EARLY JUNE PERIOD DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THIS TROF...DEEP S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP PUSHING A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPR LOW WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE LACKING ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW DURING THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME WILL ENSURE GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING. THUS...THE GREATER PROSPECT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. TIMING IS STILL NOT CERTAIN ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE INTERIM.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-28, 12:13 pm

Since we're throwing out AFDs, let's not forget JAN's - an office that typically goes WAY overboard:

BY THU/FRI...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS DECENT ENERGY
DIVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HELPS CARVE OUT A FAIRLY LARGE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE THU
AFTERNOON-MIDDAY FRI PERIOD. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL OFFER MORE
DYNAMICS AND STRONGER WIND FIELDS...CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS IS
SPLIT. THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND DYNAMICS WOULD AT FACE VALUE
SUPPORT A SEVER STORM RISK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH
CAPPING AND TIMING. MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
MOVE IN WITH 9C AT 700MB. ADDITIONALLY...TIMING WILL AN ISSUE AS A
SLOWER SYSTEM WOULD HAVE THE BEST INGREDIENTS OVER THE AREA LATE THU
NGT WHEN INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
WILL CATCH THE THU AFTERNOON/EVE PERIOD WHICH WOULD OFFER THE BEST
INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS TEETERING ON THE LOW/MED
RANGE FOR SEVERE STORMS
. DUE PURELY ON THE ANOMALOUS SYSTEM PROGGED
BY THE MAJORITY OF GUID...WILL OFFER A GENERAL STATEMENT FOR
STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD.

Interesting that an office that usually jumps in with both feet, is only sticking their toes in....at least to this point. Look, I'm not going to argue that there won't be thunder, but an organized severe event, IMO, looks unlikely given my interpretation of the current data.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 12:22 pm

Eric wrote:Since we're throwing out AFDs, let's not forget JAN's - an office that typically goes WAY overboard:



Interesting that an office that usually jumps in with both feet, is only sticking their toes in....at least to this point. Look, I'm not going to argue that there won't be thunder, but an organized severe event, IMO, looks unlikely given my interpretation of the current data.

guess eric jan area is to far south from the best overall shear... still i like the look at the 12z gfs around hour 90 or so for west tn. upper air charts look like it could still support a good severe threat.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 12:26 pm

I didnt post those AFD's in response to you Eric...I posted them for people that may be interested in something more exciting than "Organized Thunder."

With that said...there are a few AFD's out there that are not big on this system producing much severe..JAN is not the only one that isn't buying it.

If your opinion is that organized severe will not happen with current model data then you are certainly entitled to it. I however believe that if current model data does verify there will be a severe wx outbreak of some kind in the TN and OH valley due to reasons that have already been discussed. Heck..it may even go on to extend into the mid Atlantic

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 12:44 pm

Meanwhile this is starting to get into the NAM's range

SLP and Dewpoint



H5 vts and hts


850temps

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-28, 1:01 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:

guess eric jan area is to far south from the best overall shear... still i like the look at the 12z gfs around hour 90 or so for west tn. upper air charts look like it could still support a good severe threat.

I will say the 12z GFS does indeed show a more powerful system as opposed to the 6z, and it'll probably shift around during additional runs. The SLP, too, is in a more favorable position. The lack of upper level winds, though, is still a mitigating factor, but given the increasing strength of the system (including subsequent runs) it might not matter too much.

I didnt post those AFD's in response to you Eric...I posted them for people that may be interested in something more exciting than "Organized Thunder."

With that said...there are a few AFD's out there that are not big on this system producing much severe..JAN is not the only one that isn't buying it.

If your opinion is that organized severe will not happen with current model data then you are certainly entitled to it. I however believe that if current model data does verify there will be a severe wx outbreak of some kind in the TN and OH valley due to reasons that have already been discussed. Heck..it may even go on to extend into the mid Atlantic

As stated in response to Bruce, the strength HAS increased and could spell trouble for areas of the TN/OH Valley IF it maintains strength and geographic placement. And yes, I agree that the mid-Atlantic could see a verifiable severe threat from this system. However, until I personally see some continuity through the GooFus and the Euro - and the NAM, I just cannot board the first class section of the "severe event" train...guess I'll be stuck in coach. tongue

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 1:52 pm

12z St Louis WRF has a 996Mb surface low centered near the central Illinois/Missouri border at hr 84. Once again im going to note the close resemblance of track and strength (Not exactly alike but similar) to that of the early march system. The temperature profiles of the low's warm and cold sector's are also very similar.

One can clearly see the warm and cold front boundaries on this graphic as their related convection is clearly visible. I expect something similar to the early march system to transpire. There may be some discrete cells out ahead of the main line of convection (cold front) and these will be the troublemakers if they are indeed the case. It will be an interesting system to watch unfold



2m temps


Looks like this system will be dynamic enough to clear out warm front convection enough for the atmosphere to destabilize again before the second round comes thru. That would mean severe along both boundaries...the warm front and cold front as the system marches eastward.


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