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June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 2:29 pm

Toot wrote:12z St Louis WRF has a 996Mb surface low centered near the central Illinois/Missouri border at hr 84. Once again im going to note the close resemblance of track and strength (Not exactly alike but similar) to that of the early march system. The temperature profiles of the low's warm and cold sector's are also very similar.

One can clearly see the warm and cold front boundaries on this graphic as their related convection is clearly visible. I expect something similar to the early march system to transpire. There may be some discrete cells out ahead of the main line of convection (cold front) and these will be the troublemakers if they are indeed the case. It will be an interesting system to watch unfold



2m temps


Looks like this system will be dynamic enough to clear out warm front convection enough for the atmosphere to destabilize again before the second round comes thru. That would mean severe along both boundaries...the warm front and cold front as the system marches eastward.

area just south of the warm front n right ahead of the strong cold front and close approximity of the slp looks like a nice potent triple point setting up .

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-28, 3:38 pm

I know that model will change but Lawrenceburg is smack dab right in the middle of the warm and cold fronts that will spell trouble right there.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-28, 3:57 pm

Also toot, where did you get that weather graphic at I know it is from Noaa but I couldn't find it on the NAM. Who ever is in between the cold front and warm front will have the best chance at seeing tornadoes. That is where the best shear is and the best instability. On the models, it looks like the Tennessee and parts of the Ohio Valley are under the gun. That will change some but right now we could have a severe weather outbreak out our hands.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 4:56 pm

latest afternoon update from megs afd, is now mentioning the tornado word, all depends on exact track of the surface lp... interesting

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 5:05 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Also toot, where did you get that weather graphic at I know it is from Noaa but I couldn't find it on the NAM. Who ever is in between the cold front and warm front will have the best chance at seeing tornadoes. That is where the best shear is and the best instability. On the models, it looks like the Tennessee and parts of the Ohio Valley are under the gun. That will change some but right now we could have a severe weather outbreak out our hands.

Its the St Louis WRF
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/wrf/wrfdisplay.php

BTW...everyone in the state at some point will be in between the warm front and cold front...just saying

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 5:16 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:latest afternoon update from megs afd, is now mentioning the tornado word, all depends on exact track of the surface lp... interesting

Excellent discussion too..im gonna post it

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE
INTERESTING. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE POTENT PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE OKLAHOMA/NW ARKANSAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE CENTER OF THE U.S. WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A POTENT UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO INTO SE MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER. WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL CREATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON LIFTED INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH -6C TO -8C WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT TREMENDOUS BUT THEY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. A 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 30 KTS PUSHES INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHILE A 45 KT MID LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BACK THE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO CREATE 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 15O M2/S2. THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVES TO LOOK AT AS WELL. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A MCS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WHICH COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS. A LOT ALSO DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU UP NORTH.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 5:22 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:latest afternoon update from megs afd, is now mentioning the tornado word, all depends on exact track of the surface lp... interesting

Excellent discussion too..im gonna post it

plus 1... popcorn

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-28, 6:20 pm

wow, even ohx seems its jumping on board also... they are kind of conservative this fhis far out most of the time... for what i am seeing now off the models... i am pretty confident spc will have us under a yellow circle in tomorrow mornings update... i can see us going under a 15 percent hatched area for late thursday timeframe... not bad for this time of year... so at least a good slight risk event that will finally pan out for us... if things can keep getting a tad stronger, perhaps a small area could see a moderate risk for our area... interested week ahead. FINALLY

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 7:22 pm

LMK

By Thursday, the upper level pattern is expected to amplify quickly as a strong upper jet dives southeast into the central portions of the US. With the strong jet digging across the Plains, significant troughing is expected to develop over the Midwest early Thursday with an area of surface low pressure developing in Ozarks. This upper trough is expected to deepen and eventually close off over the upper Midwest by Friday morning with an area of low pressure lifting NNE from the Ozarks to near Chicago. A fairly strong surface cold front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley sometime Thursday night with widespread convection accompanying it.

With regards to the convection for Thursday afternoon/night, themodels generally have the best instability and shear west of the region. This combination of shear and instability will shift
eastward through western/central Kentucky Thursday night. However, the passage of the front during the overnight hours may preclude a larger threat of strong/severe storms. Overall, the shear profiles are not particularly strong, but certainly strong enough to support a wide mode of severe weather. The recent model trends suggests that a better potential for severe weather may develop across our eastern sections during the day on Friday as the cold front slowly progresses eastward through KY as destabilization occurs out ahead of the front. It does appear that instability and shear would be in close proximity to each other which may result in an regional outbreak of severe from the southeast US northeastward along the western spine of the Appalachians.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-28, 8:59 pm

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

VALID 12Z THU MAY 31 2012 - 12Z MON JUN 04 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED ABOUT TWO-PARTS 00Z/28 ECMWF AND ONE-PART 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...THEN SWITCHED TO AN EVEN BLEND OF THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 IN AN EFFORT TO MITIGATE THE SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS VIA A MORE ROBUST INCORPORATION OF THE THE MEAN. THE 00Z/28 GFS AND GEFS MEAN ARE ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THE BIG WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS SYSTEM OWES MORE TO THE COLD SEASON THAN NEWLY MINTED METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...WITH A TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...AND CHILLY CANADIAN AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON ITS BACK SIDE. THE CYCLONE...ALSO LIKE WINTER...WILL THEN CRAWL DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST...KEEPING CONTINENTAL POLAR IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DISPLACED POLAR JET WILL ALSO BRING COOL...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE FAR WEST...WITH A STRONG TROUGH EDGING INLAND DAYS 6 AND 7.
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 10:31 pm

This graphic off of the 12z FIM caught my eye. I was looking at it a few minutes ago. Its been verifying better than the GFS recently

35-40 Kt LLJ streak in Eastern TN/KY




The plateau area is once again one of those areas that COULD have an enhanced risk

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-28, 11:13 pm

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Also toot, where did you get that weather graphic at I know it is from Noaa but I couldn't find it on the NAM. Who ever is in between the cold front and warm front will have the best chance at seeing tornadoes. That is where the best shear is and the best instability. On the models, it looks like the Tennessee and parts of the Ohio Valley are under the gun. That will change some but right now we could have a severe weather outbreak out our hands.

Its the St Louis WRF
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/wrf/wrfdisplay.php

BTW...everyone in the state at some point will be in between the warm front and cold front...just saying
Not neccesairly... The Low pressure system could set up further south and only southern areas could be in between the 2...

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-28, 11:14 pm

I'm going to be honest...I've looked over the 18z data, and for the life of me, I just cannot find anything that screams "severe event" potential, much less anything more than a robust QLCS. Granted, some of the data is rather impressive - even spring-like - but other data is bunk....none of the data lines up like one thinks it would when a perceived "outbreak-type" system is on the horizon. Maybe as we get closer and ALL of the players finally gets sampled by the radiosonde network we'll see what we're actually working with. Until then, color me unimpressed.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-28, 11:16 pm

Toot wrote:This graphic off of the 12z FIM caught my eye. I was looking at it a few minutes ago. Its been verifying better than the GFS recently

35-40 Kt LLJ streak in Eastern TN/KY

The plateau area is once again one of those areas that COULD have an enhanced risk
Toot could you provide the websites you are getting these from, I am intrigued by them.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-28, 11:30 pm

On the NAM, GFS, and SREF I am just not seeing that great upper air strength. I don't know much so correct me if I am wrong but I looked at the 850 MB vort and it is not that impressive. The most impressive wind is around the low pressure system located in Illinois. We have instability and moisture we are lacking upper air strenghth though... I am just going by what I saw on the Vort maps which I have no idea if they help or not....

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 11:35 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Not neccesairly... The Low pressure system could set up further south and only southern areas could be in between the 2...
Lolwut?

Anyways.. here is the url for the FIM

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-28, 11:39 pm

Adam2014 wrote:On the NAM, GFS, and SREF I am just not seeing that great upper air strength. I don't know much so correct me if I am wrong but I looked at the 850 MB vort and it is not that impressive. The most impressive wind is around the low pressure system located in Illinois. We have instability and moisture we are lacking upper air strenghth though... I am just going by what I saw on the Vort maps which I have no idea if they help or not....

I cant help you... unless you tell me what exactly you are looking for and what are you looking at wacko

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Eric on 2012-05-28, 11:42 pm

Adam2014 wrote:On the NAM, GFS, and SREF I am just not seeing that great upper air strength. I don't know much so correct me if I am wrong but I looked at the 850 MB vort and it is not that impressive. The most impressive wind is around the low pressure system located in Illinois. We have instability and moisture we are lacking upper air strenghth though... I am just going by what I saw on the Vort maps which I have no idea if they help or not....

While not always "required" for severe wx, it's always nice to have that upper-level jet rounding the base of the trough. As it exits to the SE of the trough axis - or exit region - it provides upper-level divergence, which in turn, allows for storm development. Given this case, and the caveat that things COULD change, the proximity of the closed cyclonic system could provide enough upper-level divergence that the ULJ isn't needed.

Talking about vorticity maps, I wouldn't worry too much with the 850mb map. Generally speaking, whatever happens at 500mb will dictate how the system behaves. You can look at the 850mb wind directions to gain an idea of the strength and location of the LLJ, but other than that, I find the 850mb maps rather useless during severe weather season. If you wanted to see how much "shear" is available, look at the 0-1km, 0-3km, and 0-6km bulk shear products. They can provide a decent cross-section of the atmosphere so one can actually see which atmospheric layer is turning more rapidly.

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by andyhb on 2012-05-29, 12:02 am

The 00z CMC last night has been the most impressive solution I've seen for the Mid South, FWIW.

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Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-29, 12:21 am

Eric wrote:I'm going to be honest...I've looked over the 18z data, and for the life of me, I just cannot find anything that screams "severe event"

Well... there is that negatively tilted trough (Strong mid level divergence) and a strong southerly flow aloft (Instability). Then there is some decent helicity near the warm front (Rotating updrafts) and mix that in with some strong upward motion along the cold front and you have a recipe for an outbreak. Did I mention the VERY strong temp difference between the two airmasses? I mean its not a major tornado outbreak by any means but I definately can see what all these WFO's are talking about.




Last edited by Toot on 2012-05-29, 1:19 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by andyhb on 2012-05-29, 12:35 am

The problem to me, especially in terms of discrete supercell potential on Thursday, is the veer-back-veer deep layer shear profiles spread across the warm sector thanks to the relatively meridional flow in the upper levels, this is unfavorable for discrete convection and will cause the storms to quickly line out.

I need to see some improvements in the low level mass fields as well if I'm going to become more confident in this potential, cause it kind of looks like crap right now, to be blunt. (And yes if you sense some frustration in my posting right now, you'd be on track). This May has been largely a crap shoot (outside of a couple surprise events here and there).

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Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-29, 12:51 am

The 0z Nam is like "what severe weather?" beer

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-05-29, 3:42 am





pass out DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF EAST TX/ARKLATEX TO THE
TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CONSIDERABLE LATE MAY UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TO A
DEGREE/OTHERWISE SPREAD EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS
ON THURSDAY. WHILE UNCERTAIN MESOSCALE/FORECAST DETAILS ARE
CONSIDERABLE FACTORS BY THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA
OF AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
AS BELOW.

...MUCH OF TX/ARKLATEX TO TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...
SEVERAL FACTORS OF UNCERTAINTY LEAD TO A BROAD CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSEQUENT REFINEMENT WILL BE NEEDED AND
POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY ULTIMATELY BE
WARRANTED.
FIRST...ITS READILY PLAUSIBLE THAT AN MCS/REMNANTS
THEREOF WILL BE AN EARLY DAY FACTOR COME THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...SPREAD ALSO INCREASES AMONG 00Z-BASED
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE/TIMING
OF UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION INTO THURSDAY...WITH ESPECIALLY THE
00Z ECMWF INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED LATER PERIOD AND FARTHER NORTH
/OHIO VALLEY/ SEVERE POTENTIAL IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOWER/FARTHER
WEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS.

REGARDLESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A POTENTIAL MCS/OUTFLOW
REMNANTS THEREOF WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO
PERHAPS EVEN THE ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. ODDS ARE
THAT POSSIBLE OUTFLOW/MCV INFLUENCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCING
FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT/REINVIGORATION WITHIN A
RELATIVELY BROAD MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS LOWER OH
VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A WEAKER
VERTICAL SHEAR BUT STRONGER BUOYANCY REGIME...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND CENTRAL/EAST TX THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...ELSEWHERE...
OTHER MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL AND/OR NEAR THE COLD FRONT/POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/BIG BEND VICINITY OF TX.

..GUYER.. 05/29/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT


I am ever so ready for anything!! Heck I might even take a torch to the ole, well you know. rfl
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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Toot on 2012-05-29, 8:26 am

0z st louis wrf



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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-29, 9:41 am

Eric wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:On the NAM, GFS, and SREF I am just not seeing that great upper air strength. I don't know much so correct me if I am wrong but I looked at the 850 MB vort and it is not that impressive. The most impressive wind is around the low pressure system located in Illinois. We have instability and moisture we are lacking upper air strenghth though... I am just going by what I saw on the Vort maps which I have no idea if they help or not....

While not always "required" for severe wx, it's always nice to have that upper-level jet rounding the base of the trough. As it exits to the SE of the trough axis - or exit region - it provides upper-level divergence, which in turn, allows for storm development. Given this case, and the caveat that things COULD change, the proximity of the closed cyclonic system could provide enough upper-level divergence that the ULJ isn't needed.

Talking about vorticity maps, I wouldn't worry too much with the 850mb map. Generally speaking, whatever happens at 500mb will dictate how the system behaves. You can look at the 850mb wind directions to gain an idea of the strength and location of the LLJ, but other than that, I find the 850mb maps rather useless during severe weather season. If you wanted to see how much "shear" is available, look at the 0-1km, 0-3km, and 0-6km bulk shear products. They can provide a decent cross-section of the atmosphere so one can actually see which atmospheric layer is turning more rapidly.
Thank you Eric I knew one of them was better then the other one I just wasn't sure which one...

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Re: June 3rd/4th severe weather possibilities.

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