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Summer 2012 WX Discussion

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-01, 11:08 am

Current QPF maps seem to have the main track of any MCS's to our south. I'm sure that can change by next week.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-02, 5:53 pm

Another night with lows in the 40's and 50's here in eastern TN. When the sun goes down the temps will drop pretty quickly. Dont forget your pants and long sleeve shirt if your going out on the town this sultry summer night evl

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-02, 6:02 pm

Oh yeah...I forgot to mention that Leconte made it down to 34 this morning
cold

Summer????


June 1st and the low was 34! It felt a bit strange putting on my down jacket this morning. Yesterday was cold and rainy with a high of 51. The sun is out this morning, hopefully that will warm us up a little.

School is out and the kids are on the mountain. We are fortunate to have Mark Pitt, our interpretive ranger, on the mountain for the weekends. He gives daily talks on different topics relating to Mt. LeConte and the Smokies. He is here Thursday through Sunday, during the summer and fall months.


http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts.html

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-06-02, 8:04 pm

Looks like the 12z Euro is spinning up a NorEaster in the long range. If it were a few months earlier the Mid-Atlantic posters on American would be shatting their pants.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-02, 8:21 pm

snowdog wrote:Looks like the 12z Euro is spinning up a NorEaster in the long range. If it were a few months earlier the Mid-Atlantic posters on American would be shatting their pants.

That's a tropical cyclone...genesis in the GOM and then rides up the gulf stream on the east coast. Its the only model that I have seen with this scenario though.





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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-06-02, 9:16 pm

Yeah I know it isn't a noreaster but it just looks like one coming out of the gulf and racing up the coast.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-04, 9:01 pm

12z Euro



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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-05, 10:28 pm

BULLETIN
BORING WEATHER WATCH
WEATHER SERVICE'S STATEWIDE
10:00 PM EST TUE JUN 5 2012

THE WEATHER SERVICE IN TENNESSEE HAS ISSUED A

* BORING WX WATCH FOR...
EVERWHERE IN EAST TN..EVERYWHERE IN WEST TN..EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL TN

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE EST.

* AT 10:00PM EST TUE JUN 5 2012 ...GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A DEPARTING TROFF OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE JETSTREAM ON TOP OF THE FREAKIN NORTH POLE. THIS LAME WEATHER PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAJOR BOREDOM STATEWIDE.

IN ADDITION TO BOREDOM...THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WARMER WEATHER... THAT WAY YOU CAN SWEAT YOUR ***** OFF WHILE BEING BORED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP YOURSELF OCCUPIED AND FREE OF ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS OR ANY OTHER ACTIVE WEATHER. THOUGHTS OF THAT NATURE WILL ONLY LEAD TO DISAPPOINTMENT


$$

TOOT affraid

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-06, 5:44 am

Toot wrote:BULLETIN
BORING WEATHER WATCH
WEATHER SERVICE'S STATEWIDE
10:00 PM EST TUE JUN 5 2012

THE WEATHER SERVICE IN TENNESSEE HAS ISSUED A

* BORING WX WATCH FOR...
EVERWHERE IN EAST TN..EVERYWHERE IN WEST TN..EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL TN

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE EST.

* AT 10:00PM EST TUE JUN 5 2012 ...GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A DEPARTING TROFF OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE JETSTREAM ON TOP OF THE FREAKIN NORTH POLE. THIS LAME WEATHER PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAJOR BOREDOM STATEWIDE.

IN ADDITION TO BOREDOM...THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WARMER WEATHER... THAT WAY YOU CAN SWEAT YOUR ***** OFF WHILE BEING BORED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP YOURSELF OCCUPIED AND FREE OF ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS OR ANY OTHER ACTIVE WEATHER. THOUGHTS OF THAT NATURE WILL ONLY LEAD TO DISAPPOINTMENT


$$

TOOT affraid
LOL... there could be a heavy rain event shapping up for parts of the midsouth by late this weekend... some iso severe possible, watching more model runs before i jump aboard still.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-06, 7:25 am

I have been watching that on the models as well, it just looks like a big gulf low dropping heavy rain on the midsouth.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-06, 9:43 am

MRX Long Term:

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...GIVING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GO FROM THE MID 70S-LOWER 80S THURSDAY TO LOWER-UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE-850 MB RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MS DELTA. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW KEEPING PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL RAISE POPS UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

OHX Long Term:
CHANGES BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE ON SATURDAY...WITH MID 80S ON THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...A WEAK H5 LOW IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PULLING A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GFS INDICATES PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY...AND THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 LOW MOVES ACROSS. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME CLOSER TO LATEST MEX GUIDANCE...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS ON SUNDAY BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

Next week appears to be warm and possibly pretty wet around the area.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-07, 7:59 am

Sleep Well, not much happening on the weather front these days. It does look to be a bit more active next week, after a seasonably warm weekend. I've been reading on other wx blogs that the second half of June looks to be "steamy" around here, so I guess we'd better enjoy this beautiful weather while we have it. The dog days aren't too far away.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-07, 8:16 am

What deep surface low?

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-07, 8:34 am

Ahh I just read that it is a upper low, sorry for the wrong post.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-07, 8:35 am

Looks like there could be some heavy rainfall with this slow moving upper level low.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-06-07, 9:59 am

WxFreak wrote: Sleep Well, not much happening on the weather front these days. It does look to be a bit more active next week, after a seasonably warm weekend. I've been reading on other wx blogs that the second half of June looks to be "steamy" around here, so I guess we'd better enjoy this beautiful weather while we have it. The dog days aren't too far away.


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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-07, 10:50 am

What? Don’t the dog days of summer set your heart all a flutter??
smartass
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-07, 2:22 pm

From the HPC extended forecast discussion:

EASTERN US...THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST/FL PANHANDLE. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS ALL FORECAST SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE DAYS 4-5 PERIOD ON MON-TUE AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS NOT DEEP BUT THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTAINS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25 INCHES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS WHICH ARE 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FROM LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE. PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE LAKES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE AREA OFMDT-HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS. THE MODELS CARRY A CLOSED LOW INTO MON 11 JUN AND THEN GRADUALLY ELONGATE THE CIRCULATION INTO AN EXTENDED CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS...WITH A SFC WAVY FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UKMET A BIT FASTER TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE THE TROUGH EAST THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-07, 4:10 pm

From MRX Long-term AFD:

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PROVIDE A GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED TO PUSH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...AND INCREASED THEM TO CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST SOLID CHANCE POPS SEEM PLAUSIBLE ATTM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SHOULD SOME OF THE SLOWER MODEL PROJECTIONS COME TRUE...SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME OF THE CONTINUED MODEL UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MID-WEEK WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-08, 9:00 am

5 day rain accumulation map from HPC:



Starting to look like a good soaking for the area unless things change between now and early next week.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-08, 5:51 pm

St. Louis WRF looks very active at hour 84 as the cold front runs into the upper level low. [img][/img]

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-08, 11:04 pm

WxFreak wrote: I've been reading on other wx blogs that the second half of June looks to be "steamy" around here, so I guess we'd better enjoy this beautiful weather while we have it. The dog days aren't too far away.

Ensembles are predicting more of a Neutral NAO around that timeframe...instead of the near record negative values we have now.




That will certainly warm things up a bit. IMO the NAO would be the main culprit for such a warm up.. if predicted values verify.

I dont really see any notable heat waves in the near future tho. The current pattern and alot of analogs tend to suggest that lower than normal heights over the eastern US will be the main show this summer.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-09, 8:12 am

Looks like we are heading into a very wet time starting Sunday. Local flooding issues are a possibility. Very unusual for June.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD BE A RATHER WET EXTENDED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION AND ONTO THE MRX CWA ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW AND THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO THE CONVECTION. RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...CREATING LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-10, 5:41 pm

Looks like a good soaking tonight...but i dont think flooding will be much of an issue. The heaviest convection looks to stay south and east of most of the state IMO

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-10, 6:07 pm

By the way..here is the temperature departure from normal for the first ten days of summer. As you can see the eastern US has been colder than normal so far..not a bad way to start a summer pals


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