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Toot (6644)
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Summer 2012 WX Discussion

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cliftown04
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Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 2012-07-12, 6:57 pm

The models missed this so bad! The heaviest rain has been way East of I-65 around Crossville. We have had rain here all day but not to heavy just light amounts. GFS had 6"+ around the Tennessee River. Not even close.
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Post by Toot 2012-07-12, 7:09 pm

Yep..I noticed HUGE model bust with this also beer
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Post by Adam2014 2012-07-12, 7:18 pm

Toot wrote:Yep..I noticed HUGE model bust with this also beer
If this was snow I would be one pissed off person, I mean P/O'd!!!!
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Post by Toot 2012-07-12, 7:53 pm

I'll say one thing..this has been a very interesting setup. I cant say that I have seen one like it before either.. such a deep tropical fetch being slowly pumped into the region.

Its such a weird flow pattern too.


Last edited by Toot on 2012-07-12, 9:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by snowdog 2012-07-12, 9:24 pm

I think Nashville set an all time minimum high temp for the date today. 74 degrees was the max recorded today from NWS OHX office and 75 was the record.

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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-13, 6:26 am

All day rain yesterday with several periods of heavy downpours. Had 1.3" yesterday alone, and have recorded over 5" since the first of July. I only wish our friends in western Tennessee could have rec'd the same soaking. Sad
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Post by windstorm 2012-07-13, 9:06 am

Since the rain started early this week i have gotten 6.80 while the airport had 3.35. Living on the north side we always get more than the Airport. ( well almost always ) Just like in Christmas 2010 we had 4 inches of snow , while the Airport had 2.5..
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Post by John1122 2012-07-13, 1:13 pm

Great soaking rain yesterday and my high temp was only 68, it felt like early October!

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Post by Toot 2012-07-13, 5:55 pm

John1122 wrote:Great soaking rain yesterday and my high temp was only 68, it felt like early October!

Nice thunderstorm here in Morristown right now. I wish it was October..I cant wait..it would be nice just to see a real cold front come through beer
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Post by Toot 2012-07-13, 6:42 pm

12z Euro has a death ridge...but sets the core of it up out west. pals
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-14, 7:13 am

Sevier/Blount Co. and parts of the Plateau have been in the rain bull's-eye for much of this week.

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 14 Radar-rain-1

I picked up another half inch yesterday. For the month I now have had nearly 6 inches of rain. What a change from just a few weeks ago.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-14, 4:20 pm

From MRX long term AFD--signs of fall already showing??

HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING WEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BLASTS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK /THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DIFFERING ONT THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THIS/. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SOLID 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE ZONES FOR THE LATE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODELS TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM.


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Post by Toot 2012-07-14, 4:47 pm

WxFreak wrote:From MRX long term AFD--signs of fall already showing??


drool I hope so.

I think we will start seeing the jeststream return southward a little earlier than normal this year since it headed north pretty early. Just guessin..but I would say we at least have 3-4 more weeks of solid summer wx.

Though.. im beginning to think August may average out well below normal. I noticed this system on models yesterday..it'll be interesting to see how far south the front gets.
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Post by VFL 2012-07-14, 6:47 pm

Toot wrote:
drool I hope so.

"I think we will start seeing the jeststream return southward a little earlier than normal this year since it headed north pretty early".

With hot temps still around and a closer active jet could this spark some severe weather? Also what would that do to GOM tropical systems?
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Post by Toot 2012-07-14, 7:50 pm

VFL wrote:

With hot temps still around and a closer active jet could this spark some severe weather? Also what would that do to GOM tropical systems?

Ya..the chances of a severe event or two is alot higher when the jet begins to make its southward migration. As for tropical systems..its hard to say for sure.. but they dont normally do too well with a northern jet in close proximity. They get shunted out to sea and have to deal with alot of shear due to baroclinicity.
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-07-14, 10:41 pm

we are still about 6 to 8 weeks away for us seeing any legit severe weather outside the pulse and mcs type... by early fall, we might can get a decent severe event. when the jet stream starts to make its way down farther south... as far as tropical actviity... i think its going to be below average this year.. with developing nino conditions as we roll towards fall.

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Post by Toot 2012-07-15, 3:38 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:we are still about 6 to 8 weeks away for us seeing any legit severe weather outside the pulse and mcs type... by early fall, we might can get a decent severe event. when the jet stream starts to make its way down farther south... as far as tropical actviity... i think its going to be below average this year.. with developing nino conditions as we roll towards fall.

Good post Bruce...all sounds about right to me Smile


Meanwhile here is the rain the last 7 days..if this wouldnt have happened it would have been extreme..Thanks Rain Gods beer

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Post by Toot 2012-07-15, 7:25 pm

Had a nice little thunderstorm move through the area. It had a ton of rain with it also. I just now got my power back on pals
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Post by Jed33 2012-07-15, 8:36 pm

Toot wrote:Had a nice little thunderstorm move through the area. It had a ton of rain with it also. I just now got my power back on pals

Man, I would have loved to have been in on that one. I was at the very edge of it. I ended up with a tenth of an inch, and just had to watch the storm slide by to my west yikes There was a lot of lightning and thunder with it, but oh well, another in a long line of days of either being skipped, or just grazed here. I think I got the least rain this week of anyone in East TN. From last Sun. to today I have recorded a whopping 1.23 inches here at the house, lol. Granted several days were nice soaking rains, we still could have used the extra rain that most people got. I know we will get ours here soon, but if it's not soon, I will actually have to water again in a few days. wacko

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Post by Toot 2012-07-16, 6:50 pm

Maybe you will get a better outcome out of the next front Jed. Looks like another solid round of frontal induced rain and thunderstorms is on the way to most of the eastern US. beer

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Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 14 P120i00
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Post by Toot 2012-07-16, 7:12 pm

After that things may get a little active in regards to MCS's and NW Flow. Perfect setup for another Derecho in my humble opinion

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Fun Times may be in store..we'll see
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Post by snowdog 2012-07-17, 12:09 pm

Anyone noticed we've been in MJO Phase 2 for last the 10 days or so? In July MJO Phase 2 trends to cooler than normal temps here in the mid-state. Looks like it was right this time. However we are moving in to Phase 3 which favors the return of heat...which we are already seeing the last 2 days.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-07-17, 2:49 pm

Interesting storm over Knox county right now. Sky is crazy looking.

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Post by VFL 2012-07-17, 4:45 pm

Yes that storm that went throught Knox Co was crazy. I was in the Powell, Plesant Ridge area and I got 3/4" hail and 50+mph winds. My dad lives in Powell and he picked up 1.5" of rain in 30 min. Like pipe said the skys were very strainge looking.
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Post by Toot 2012-07-17, 6:16 pm

Fall type pattern anyone? lol

12z GFS fantasy land
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