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Summer 2012 WX Discussion

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-11, 2:45 pm

me likey what i see on the radar to my nw... nice mcs developing, some wind damage being reported with these back in nw arkie and southern mo. should only get stronger as they come through the prime heating of the day. i have a dewpoint at 74 as of now... very little shear, but just south of cape giradeau mo. there was a quick spin up a hour ago.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-11, 4:31 pm

That is one potent looking MCS Bruce...enjoy!! rock on

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-11, 4:58 pm

Yep definately a huge MCS right there.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-11, 5:01 pm

Toot wrote:That is one potent looking MCS Bruce...enjoy!! rock on
yep, toot, just got a nice big ole wind gust buddy 10 minutes ago. at least 50mph along the leading edge of this thing... torrential downpour as i type.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-11, 5:03 pm

there is starting to be signs of rotation just south of bolivar on radar. thats about 35 miles to the south of me.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-11, 5:05 pm

Its certainly producing some wind with how much its bowing. It looks like folks in middle TN may also see this MCS roll through..but most of it looks to have weakened by the time it reaches most of East TN.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-11, 5:17 pm

In Henderson County TN, The NWS said that the public was reporting damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH along the line of thunderstorms.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-11, 5:35 pm

Lol toot schooling the heck out of me at my own site... Don't embarrass me to bad lol. In my defense I was talking about this evening. More thunderstorms are not likely to develop after the MCS stablizes the atmoshpere.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-11, 5:42 pm

I wasnt trying to school you...just letting you know rain will still be possible tonight in western TN. I just seen a couple of posts where you were relating these storms to the cold front which is WELL west of the MCS rolling thru your neck of the woods. One of the wrf's and HRRR is developing another MCS tonight.. a little west of this one

From MEG

LATER TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY BE WORKED OVER FROM THIS AFTERNOONS MCS. THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWS QUITE A BIT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THIS AREA MAY BE PRIMED FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE POTENTIALLY RELOADING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THIS OCCURENCE...BUT TIMING CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM AS LATEST HRRR IS FASTER WITH MOST CONVECTION PRIOR TO 06Z AND ALL OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SLOWER AND LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THESE LOCATIONS. PLAN TO CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER 06Z AND WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-11, 5:57 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Lol toot schooling the heck out of me at my own site... Don't embarrass me to bad lol. In my defense I was talking about this evening. More thunderstorms are not likely to develop after the MCS stablizes the atmoshpere.
it will be interesting to see how this second mcs plays out... atmosphere worked pretty good at the moment... but the front is stalling a bit.. could see some more destabalizing of the atmosphere... lets see what happens tonite.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-11, 6:18 pm

This MCS is dying out in my part of the area.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-11, 10:20 pm

The bowing line segment is still going pretty strong and will likely qualify as a Derecho event with such widespread wind damage reports.





Last edited by Toot on 2012-06-12, 8:20 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-06-11, 11:39 pm

Toot wrote:Its certainly producing some wind with how much its bowing. It looks like folks in middle TN may also see this MCS roll through..but most of it looks to have weakened by the time it reaches most of East TN.

You not kidding Toot. I was giving up hope on getting any rain until this one isolated shower popped up. It's a nice shower as everything helps, but as late as yesterday morning I was looking for some nice inch plus totals. However, despite mrx continuing to advertise categorical and high end likely pops for every period, the rain has just not materialized. I have yikes no idea why such a huge bust, but when they went with 100% this am for today, I had to laugh a little. Someone is following the computer models right off the cliff lol. I think this whole event from sunday to tomorrow is EPIC FAIL! I know i'm ranting a little, but I was really expecting a little more, lol

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-06-12, 7:21 am

Lol looks like my little rant worked, we had another nice heavy shower with some rumbles of thunder this morning. Looks like we had about .65 in the gauge. Still not organized like 70% chance would normally look, but it sure was nice to be under those cells. After today looks really dry for the rest of the week

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-12, 8:19 am

lol Jed...it was a pretty big bust. This system never looked quite right to me on the models. The pre frontal rain corridor was just too wide and not what you see normally. I had a feeling qpf was overdone but I didnt think it was THAT overdone..lol

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-12, 8:30 am

Just got back in town from visiting my family in Kentucky. Yes, this system was a complete bust. Came home to less than a quarter inch in the rain gauge over the whole weekend, and yesterday. And with all the cloud cover, seriously doubt we'll see much development today. Complete and utter epic FAIL!!
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-12, 4:53 pm

BULLETIN
BORING WEATHER WATCH
5:00 PM EST TUE JUN 6 2012

THE WEATHER SERVICE IN TENNESSEE HAS ISSUED A

* BORING WX WATCH FOR...
EVERWHERE IN EAST TN..EVERYWHERE IN WEST TN..EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL TN

* UNTIL JUNE 15TH.

* AT 5:00PM EST TUE JUN 12 2012 ...GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE JETSTREAM ON TOP OF THE FREAKIN NORTH POLE. THIS LAME WEATHER PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAJOR BOREDOM.

IN ADDITION TO BOREDOM...THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WARMER WEATHER... THAT WAY YOU CAN SWEAT AND STINK WHILE BEING BORED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP YOURSELF OCCUPIED AND FREE OF ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANES OR SVR THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGHTS OF THAT NATURE WILL ONLY LEAD TO DISAPPOINTMENT

$ $

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-06-13, 1:34 am

Please dear sir, let me know when this is upgraded to a warning!!! Sleep
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-14, 6:49 pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
638 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE
...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF EAGLETON
VILLAGE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PIGEON FORGE...AND MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
GATLINBURG...PIGEON FORGE...LAKE FOREST...ELKMONT...SEYMOUR...
KIMBERLIN HEIGHTS AND PITTMAN CENTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-14, 7:00 pm

Some pretty big hailers there.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-14, 7:03 pm

These storms are moving very slowly, and almost training over parts of Blount and Sevier Co. Some isolated areas are going to see some heavy rain amounts.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-14, 7:04 pm

Nothing to push them at all, just some storms that have developed over elevated areas.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-14, 7:07 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Nothing to push them at all, just some storms that have developed over elevated areas.

Yep, they are just wobbling around the area.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-14, 7:09 pm

In the last few radar frames you can see a bit of a gust front heading out of these storms toward the northeast. A few new storms could form along the leading edge of this small feature.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-06-14, 7:15 pm

Seems to be an axis of unstable moisture convergence from the emerald coast of the gulf.. up through the foothills of the Appalachians. I assume that is what the dashed line is on the surface map also


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