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Summer 2012 WX Discussion

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-16, 8:37 pm

Looks like you going to have some fun DW. Pretty strong front this early in the year smoke

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-16, 9:11 pm

The tail end of the main line went about 10 miles north of here. Maybe the stuff back in northern Arkansas will work this way. Man we are snake bit and have been for what seems like forever.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-08-17, 10:18 am

I'm starting to wonder if today may not be another bust for E TN. Clouds are pretty thick right now and nothing is really getting going. WRF model sure doesn't show much activity for later on. I hope I'm wrong, as I could sure use some more rain for the garden and my newly soded yard. Looks like Dyersburg finally got some rain last night though! I know ya'll needed it beyond bad

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-08-17, 11:06 am

Jed33 wrote: I'm starting to wonder if today may not be another bust for E TN. Clouds are pretty thick right now and nothing is really getting going. WRF model sure doesn't show much activity for later on. I hope I'm wrong, as I could sure use some more rain for the garden and my newly soded yard. Looks like Dyersburg finally got some rain last night though! I know ya'll needed it beyond bad

I'm not overly optimistic about our rain chances today. Like you stated, the thick cloud cover is hampering our instability factor, and the radar is also void of any convection upstream from us. I have a feeling that we'll see a broken/narrow line of convection develop at some point as the actual front comes through.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-17, 11:11 am

Id say storms will fire as forcing gets closer.. but like yall I dont see much of a severe threat.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-08-17, 1:42 pm

Looks MRX starting to agree that instability is lacking this afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SO WILL INCLUDE NO MORE THAN VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO WILL TAKE ALL SITES TO MVFR. LOWER
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-08-17, 4:17 pm

Yeah a line is starting to form in southern KY/northern TN but it's looking like weak sauce. I might have to start building fires again to taunt mother nature!

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-17, 10:03 pm

Is there any other cold fronts supposed to come through in the next few weeks, And when? I hate that the heat is coming back (not as extreme but still..). I hope we can get a monster front that kills the ridge that's near us.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-18, 12:47 am

skillsweather wrote:Is there any other cold fronts supposed to come through in the next few weeks, And when? I hate that the heat is coming back (not as extreme but still..). I hope we can get a monster front that kills the ridge that's near us.

No ridge anywhere near us now or into the foreseeable future. Not much in the way of heat either. Temps will be near to below normal for the next couple of weeks as troughing and zonal flow are the expected dominant regimes.

There will be another front around monday that will reinforce the cooler air...but it will be weaker than the current one. This time of year you dont really notice the temp difference that a front has brought until cloud cover has fully dissipated and then you get the radiational cooling at night.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-18, 1:54 pm

Lol..the GFS is landfalling a powerful hurricane on the east coast in its long range.



There is not much doubt in my mind that this storm will form and it will be a strong one. The interesting thing about this one is its the I storm. Last year the I storm (Irene) took a very similar path as models are taking this one on. Last year Irene was the final nail in the coffin for that summer.

This one is very interesting to me because it has a chance to really reinforce a trough over the eastern US. It will be interesting to see if this storm starts to transition into a hybrid subtropical/Nor'easter if it takes a similar path to that of Irene. If it does I imagine any type of summer weather will be finished. It may be quite a storm in terms of landfall and the changes it makes to the pattern in the Northern Hemisphere.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-18, 1:59 pm

yep toot, just fixing to post that about the cane in the long range... no doubt about it, if this plays out, this will be the final nail in the coffin for this summer... and it will have a lingering effect on the pattern over the easther part of the country. uh oh

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-08-20, 8:14 am

I like the way y'all talk.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-08-20, 1:51 pm

Haven't seen this in a long time:



Models showing no precip through Tuesday week for TYS.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-20, 5:13 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Haven't seen this in a long time:



Models showing no precip through Tuesday week for TYS.

That would be awesome Stove..today has been such a beautiful.. pleasant and comfortable day..im loving the nice weather!! beer

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-20, 11:08 pm

Before I turn in for the night..I wanted to point out that the euro is much further south than the GFS/CMC with the strong LPS in the OH Valley. Models are probably not handling all the energy in the eastern US towards the end of the month correctly. If the euro is right...I imagine there would be alot of severe with that system

Fun times towards the end of the month...too much energy going on in the eastern US without a signifigant storm system of some type.


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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-08-21, 7:42 am

I have been watching that storm in the long range, it is looking very strong to say the least.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-21, 9:37 am

i have eye on it, but not jumping on the train yet either... seems like we just cant get a good event these days... been one boring year to say the least

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-08-21, 3:54 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i have eye on it, but not jumping on the train yet either... seems like we just cant get a good event these days... been one boring year to say the least

Complete opposite of 2011.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-08-21, 5:00 pm

Two straight mornings in the upper 40s. Hoping to squeeze out one more.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-21, 8:26 pm

18z GFS rides a moderate tropical cyclone up the west coast of Florida and into Apalachee bay.

This seems like a reasonable solution to me... given some of the higher elevations in the islands that Isaac will more than likely have to deal with. If I were a hurricane chaser...I guess I would be loading up for the general vicinity of the Tallahassee area.

Of course..I would give it a few more days to be sure



I posted this here in Summer wx disco because it goes on to bring all that tropical moisture into GA/SC/NC and east TN. I imagine it would be much weakened but still some gusty winds.

Mix that in with a frontal system and you have yourself a situation..especially in the mountains uh oh

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-08-22, 6:37 am

Ah...some interesting weather at last after a loooong boring interlude of about a year. Although, that much moisture in the mountains could spell MAJOR problems. Northeast GA and western NC would be in the bullseye for major flooding, as they would have an upslope situation adding to the heavy rain totals. The southeast winds ahead of the storm would force all that moisture to bank against the east facing slopes of the APPS. uh oh
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-22, 8:46 am

WxFreak wrote:Ah...some interesting weather at last after a loooong boring interlude of about a year. Although, that much moisture in the mountains could spell MAJOR problems. Northeast GA and western NC would be in the bullseye for major flooding, as they would have an upslope situation adding to the heavy rain totals. The southeast winds ahead of the storm would force all that moisture to bank against the east facing slopes of the APPS. uh oh

You aint kidding Freak..it would be an upslope rain event on steroids over that way uh oh "Paint Creek" a campground in Greene county just got their road completely restored and open not long ago from historic flooding that occured in the early 2000's. It was like a flash flood that caught everybody off guard. Does anyone remember if that was from a tropical system?

I remember house sized propane tanks floating down the French Broad. They found vehicles that were moved several miles down river uh oh It washed the whole campground away up there.

The GFS reminds me of that event for some reason

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-08-22, 2:23 pm

Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:Ah...some interesting weather at last after a loooong boring interlude of about a year. Although, that much moisture in the mountains could spell MAJOR problems. Northeast GA and western NC would be in the bullseye for major flooding, as they would have an upslope situation adding to the heavy rain totals. The southeast winds ahead of the storm would force all that moisture to bank against the east facing slopes of the APPS. uh oh

You aint kidding Freak..it would be an upslope rain event on steroids over that way uh oh "Paint Creek" a campground in Greene county just got their road completely restored and open not long ago from historic flooding that occured in the early 2000's. It was like a flash flood that caught everybody off guard. Does anyone remember if that was from a tropical system?

I remember house sized propane tanks floating down the French Broad. They found vehicles that were moved several miles down river uh oh It washed the whole campground away up there.

The GFS reminds me of that event for some reason

Hurricane Frances and Ivan, both in September of 2004, caused extensive flooding in western North Carolina. Frances took a route somewhat similar to what the current models project for Isaac. It crossed Florida, then came up through GA and into East TN. The upslope factor gave the east facing slopes of the APPS record rainfall, dropping 23.57" of water on Mt. Mitchell, NC. I don't know if this is the same event you are referring to, though.
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Math/Met on 2012-08-22, 4:15 pm

Toot wrote:

You aint kidding Freak..it would be an upslope rain event on steroids over that way uh oh "Paint Creek" a campground in Greene county just got their road completely restored and open not long ago from historic flooding that occured in the early 2000's. It was like a flash flood that caught everybody off guard. Does anyone remember if that was from a tropical system?

I remember house sized propane tanks floating down the French Broad. They found vehicles that were moved several miles down river uh oh It washed the whole campground away up there.

The GFS reminds me of that event for some reason

Are you referring to this? If so, then it was the result of slow moving/redeveloping thunderstorms.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=greenflood

http://www.greenevillesun.com/Local_News/article/Waters-Invade-Homes-Destroy-Bridges-Roads-Extent-Of-Loss-Unknown-id-261015


The quote "Paint Creek is gone, It's in Cocke County now" from the Greeneville Sun article makes me think that this is the event you are referring to. I lived in southern Greene County at that time, and I've never seen it rain that hard. There was water everywhere.

Edit: Even though there is no actual date on the Greeneville Sun article, the date listed in the archive matched the date mentioned in the NWS paper.

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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-22, 4:25 pm

yep..thats it m/m! Thanks..ive been looking for a writeup about that particular event for a while now. Im on my cell but i will check it out when i get home.

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