WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


TS Debby Floods Florida

Page 2 of 3 Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 11:19 am

The 0z CMC Track landfalls it close to where Katrina landfalled uh oh



In no way am I saying this will be anything like Katrina...but if you take ALL of the Global and cane models and come up with an average/mean track.. it would definately be near Louisiana


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 12:44 pm

48 hr shear forecast yikes



Ya this could get very interesting popcorn

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 2:48 pm

The 12z CMC is a VERY powerful Hurricane....ITS HUGE AND DEEP


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-23, 2:48 pm

euro still has this going to the texas n mexico border... which makes sense to me... with the dominace of high pressure centered over the middle of the country... no deep troughs near future to pick it up n come north much.

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 2:56 pm

Bruce the euro is an outlier...Here is great agreement on track from the individual short range ensembles....THIS IS NOT GOING TO MEXICO


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-23, 3:05 pm

Toot wrote:Bruce the euro is an outlier...Here is great agreement on track from the individual short range ensembles....THIS IS NOT GOING TO MEXICO

i know the euro is out on an island in a way... but i agree with this scenerio... i hope it does get picked up and head towards louisiana or east texas... and come up just to the west of the miss. river. we could use the big rains from that, plus that would put us on the severe weather side of things if it inded is a strong system as some global models indicate... we will c what happens... interesting none the less, at least some exciting weather to track wash

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 4:09 pm

Looks Like Tropical Storm debby at the next update by the NHC
AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,




Last edited by Toot on 2012-06-23, 8:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 6:16 pm

Very Vigorus LLC


MAN ITS GOING TO BE OVER SOME REALLY WARM WATER FOR DAYS torch

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-23, 10:13 pm

As you can see by oscatt wind barb satellite that its still quite a broad low even though it is a bonified TS because it is producing TS force winds on the east side of the storm right now.



She is quickly becoming better organized by the hour and its also quickly revealing where it will track.

It would not surprise me a bit to see this near hurricane strength early in the morning due to very favorable shear..upper level anticyclone...hot SST's and plenty of heat potential. I think she will head north towards Louiisiana and then the front catches her and whisks her through the carolinas where she then might redevelop off the coast of NC/VA



_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 6:07 am

The HWRF has this landfalling in TX as a major hurricane


I think its too far west..Im looking for a land fall around New orleans uh oh


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 8:32 am

Until good daylight tracks in from the east here is some microwave imagery from the navy







She's certainly trying to wrap convection completely around her COC. I expect some very quick intesification today

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-06-24, 8:44 am

Debby is almost stationary as well, she is only moving North at 2 MPH definately gonna be some intensification today.

_________________
GO VOLS!!!
avatar
Adam2014
Founding Member

Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 21
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 8:59 am

Agreed Adam


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 9:01 am

Alot of the models are now taking this across FL into the Atlantic. At this time I still think the troff misses Debby



I would like to see the 12z suite of models before I agree with the consensus above

One thing's for sure...this Cyclone is going to be huge when it gets its act together

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-24, 11:51 am

The NHC seems to be clueless as hell... i dont think i have ever seen an uncertain track as this one is... debbie is going to be just like a typical woman... cant seem to make up her freaking mind... lol lol!

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-24, 11:55 am

another thing to note... these bands are starting to rotate some... especially were the stronger outer bands are coming in at... look for spc to issue a tornado watchalong the coast and slightly inland at anytime...

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-24, 12:57 pm

I'm beginning to think Debbie is going to be shunted to the north and east. The center seems to have already been pushed further north by the upper level LP off to it's southwest. If it goes any further north, the incoming trough will be able to capture it, and pull it off to the northeast over time. Maybe that is why many of the computer models have it going east instead of west now. We'll find out soon enough.

I've learned that moving a hurricane is much like moving real estate--it all depends on location, location, location. Where the hurricane is now will ultimately decide where it is going.
avatar
WxFreak
Founding Member

Posts : 812
Join date : 2012-03-27
Age : 45
Location : East Sevier County, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 2:30 pm

WxFreak wrote:I've learned that moving a hurricane is much like moving real estate--it all depends on location, location, location. Where the hurricane is now will ultimately decide where it is going. [/font]

Bingo...I totally agree...thats why I changed my forecast for Debby to get picked up by the front. Nice post Freak Surprised

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 2:40 pm

IF THE FRONT DOES NOT PICK DEBBIE UP....SOME PEOPLE DOWN IN THE GULF COAST REGIONS WILL HAVE TO BE EVACUATED BECAUSE THIS WILL EXPLODE INTO A VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO STOP IT FROM BECOMING A BEAST IF THE FRONT/TROFF MISSES HER yikes


No doubt where the center of this baby is and she looks to be getting alot better organized....



_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 5:55 pm

Looks like this is going to be pulled due north now as just a TS per the NHC



wacko

I sure aint trying anymore forecasts with this one..lol rfl

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 8:18 pm

Hey NHC...The euro says this going to be hurricane Debby


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 8:31 pm

15z SREF


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 9:32 pm

NRL microwave energy shows a very loose COC...meaning this thing is just not geting going like I thought it would over those warm SSTS



mad

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-24, 11:07 pm


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Toot on 2012-06-25, 1:59 pm

Debby is a weak mess right now...but this mornings euro says she will cross Florida and explode into a ruthless Tropical Cyclone


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: TS Debby Floods Florida

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 3 Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum