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Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

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Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-25, 6:48 pm

Ever heard the saying "hotter than the 4th of July?" Well it looks like that saying will hold true again this year. A strong subtropical ridge centered out to our west will provide another shortlived heatwave. This one will be a little stronger than the last with widespread triple digit readings across the southeast... midsouth and lower parts of the OH Valley. I imagine this heat will also spread eastward across the eastern seaboard with time. The graphic below is 2m temps valid for June afternoon of the 29th



Last edited by Toot on 2012-07-09, 5:17 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-26, 9:03 am

This blast of heat is looking pretty intense for June--and very widespread across the U.S. Starting to remind me of June 1988--and we all know how that summer turned out.

Actually, the dry conditions across the U.S. remind me of that summer as well. There was widespread drought that year, affecting over half the U.S. The heat and dry conditions did not start to break until very late August of that year. Then in September, there was a big reversal, thanks in part to Hurricane Gilbert. That massive hurricane didn't make landfall in the U.S., but a huge surge of moisture from it gave much of the east and south U.S. needed soaking rains. By 1989, the drought was replaced by wet conditions over much of the U.S. thanks to our friend EL Nino. That winter of 88-89 was VERY wet, and VERY warm.

Oh well, just musing this morning...
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-26, 9:03 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
700 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-261900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...
COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...
DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...
ABINGDON
700 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 /600 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012/

...HEAT WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AROUND THE TRI-CITIES AREA...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AROUND THE KNOXVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA AREAS.

CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE THE FOLLOWING:

THU FRI SAT SUN

TRI-CITIES......96/1952... 95/1952... 95/1959... 98/1959
KNOXVILLE......100/1952... 101/1936... 100/1952... 100/1954
CHATTANOOGA....104/1952... 102/1936... 103/1952... 101/1954

ADDITIONALLY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES. BE PREPARED FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT DURING ANY OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS WEEKEND. CONSIDER REDUCING OR ELIMINATING STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AND REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-26, 9:10 am

WxFreak wrote:This blast of heat is looking pretty intense for June--and very widespread across the U.S. Starting to remind me of June 1988--and we all know how that summer turned out.

Actually, the dry conditions across the U.S. remind me of that summer as well. There was widespread drought that year, affecting over half the U.S. The heat and dry conditions did not start to break until very late August of that year. Then in September, there was a big reversal, thanks in part to Hurricane Gilbert. That massive hurricane didn't make landfall in the U.S., but a huge surge of moisture from it gave much of the east and south U.S. needed soaking rains. By 1989, the drought was replaced by wet conditions over much of the U.S. thanks to our friend EL Nino. That winter of 88-89 was VERY wet, and VERY warm.

Oh well, just musing this morning...

We definately need a strong tropical cyclone to come thru and shake up what is becoming a stagnant pattern. You have a very good memory freak. I do good to remember last years wx at this time..lol

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-06-26, 12:22 pm

Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:This blast of heat is looking pretty intense for June--and very widespread across the U.S. Starting to remind me of June 1988--and we all know how that summer turned out.

Actually, the dry conditions across the U.S. remind me of that summer as well. There was widespread drought that year, affecting over half the U.S. The heat and dry conditions did not start to break until very late August of that year. Then in September, there was a big reversal, thanks in part to Hurricane Gilbert. That massive hurricane didn't make landfall in the U.S., but a huge surge of moisture from it gave much of the east and south U.S. needed soaking rains. By 1989, the drought was replaced by wet conditions over much of the U.S. thanks to our friend EL Nino. That winter of 88-89 was VERY wet, and VERY warm.

Oh well, just musing this morning...

We definately need a strong tropical cyclone to come thru and shake up what is becoming a stagnant pattern. You have a very good memory freak. I do good to remember last years wx at this time..lol

Same here, ha!

Not looking forward to brutal humid heat....
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-26, 2:27 pm

I'm the opposite. I can remember the distant past with pretty good clarity. Ask me about last week, and I'll give you a blank stare. confused
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-26, 6:07 pm

From Dodge City KS AFD:


WILL ALSO HAVE HEAT INDEX CONCERNS AS EXTREMELY HOT AND UNPLEASANT TEMPERATURESCONTINUE. AGAIN, HAVE SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO BE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB VIA BOISE VERIFICATION. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WIDESPREAD AROUND 108 TO 110 DEG F TO POSSIBLY EVEN AS HIGH AS 113 DEG F TOWARDS KHYS.

Just an example of the heat ridge developing in the Plains.



From MRX Long Term AFD:

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LINGERING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL CREATE UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM DEBBY REMAINING FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH DAY BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO CREATE MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT TEMPS COULD ULTIMATELY BE HIGHER DUE TO THE DRY SOIL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.


I'm beginning to really dislike the summer of 2012.
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-26, 6:32 pm

HPC Day 3 high temps






lapat

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by kailynleto on 2012-06-26, 8:16 pm

You know it's bad when I am jumping on a weather forum in the summertime.

Have y'all seen some of the model outputs? Looks like Satan has taken residence in Tennessee and has brought some fire from Hell to remind him of home.

111? 108? Really? Higher than BNA's all time record? I really hope the MOS is smoking high-grade, pure Colombian cocaine, because if not, we're going to have a LOT of deaths this weekend.

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-27, 12:55 am

kailynleto wrote: I really hope the MOS is smoking high-grade, pure Colombian cocaine

I think you've confused MOS data with Lindsay Lohan...lol drunken

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-27, 8:34 am

From OHX AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
258 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012


...HEAT WAVE AND DROUGHT WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...IT`S HARD TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE WEATHER THIS MORNING, AS LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SINK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SUN TOPS THE HORIZON THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE IN A HURRY.

LOOKS LIKE OUR HUMONGOUS UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BUILD EASTWARD, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

I don't think I've ever seen anyone at the NWS use the word humongous before, but all things considered, I don't think a better word could be used.
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-27, 10:13 am

Well, looks as if we probably chose the right PIC for our summer theme after all. SUN BAKED seems to be a good theme for 2012, unfortunately. Crying or Very sad
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-27, 8:55 pm

Here it comes...all 594 DM's of it!! worry


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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by John1122 on 2012-06-28, 3:26 am

TWC may be bonkers, has my area at 106 for Fri and Sat.

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-28, 6:26 am

Toot wrote:Here it comes...all 594 DM's of it!!


That's one big DM high!

It's the Mt. Everest of upper level highs. And I have a feeling it will be with us most of the summer in one form or another--wobbling back and forth over North America. Our only hope lies in an eventual retrogression of the mountain westward, allowing something we discussed in a different thread (backdoor cold front) to slip down at some point, or disturbances to drop southeast and bring an MCS or something similar. Hope it happens next week--the sooner the better.
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-28, 8:35 am

John1122 wrote:TWC may be bonkers, has my area at 106 for Fri and Sat.

Lol..yeah that sounds like a little much for your area John.

Here is what 4km Nam is printing out for highs today and tomorrow



Dear god... this is pretty ugly

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-28, 9:36 am

Horrible. Run to the hills.

The mountains are the one saving grace for east Tennessee. It's a short road trip to reach cooler venues. I wonder what the temps will be above 6000ft?
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-28, 9:43 am

Noticed this in the Louisville, KY morning AFD:

This air mass is sourced from the Sonoran Desert, so dewpoints will remain in the mid/upper-50s.

The ongoing drought,especially across our source region for any low level moisture across western Tennessee and Arkansas, will also limit our low level moisture availability.

This is why I was worried several months ago about drought expanding into our area. Drought feeds on itself, and when you become surrounded by dry, parched ground, it's that much more likely that your area will also become dry. We need to open up the Gulf of Mexico, because there is little moisture elsewhere to feed the needed rains.
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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-28, 1:19 pm

I don't think I've ever seen the U.S. this free of clouds and precipitation, except for in autumn. If I were to take a vacation, I believe I would head to Maine right now.

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Math/Met on 2012-06-28, 4:00 pm

100 degrees at Knoxville. Not a good sign for the next few days.

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-28, 4:06 pm

WxFreak wrote: If I were to take a vacation, I believe I would head to Maine right now.


Good choice...I would also like to head that way and preferably not on the interstate. I would try to drive on a two lane road thru the Appalachians the whole way..lol

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-28, 4:11 pm

Math/Met wrote:100 degrees at Knoxville. Not a good sign for the next few days.

Agreed torch ...records will probably fall at least one of the next two days. The record at Knoxville for tomorrow is 101 set in 1936.


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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-28, 5:11 pm

A look at the dome of hell via simuawips torch


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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Toot on 2012-06-28, 5:36 pm

yikes

Record High Event Report

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Knoxville today. This ties the old record of 100 set back in 1952

A record high temperature of 97 degrees was set at Tri-Cities today. This breaks the old record of 96 set back in 1952

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Re: Late June/Early July 2012 Torch From Hell!

Post by Math/Met on 2012-06-28, 6:02 pm

Toot wrote:yikes

Record High Event Report

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Knoxville today. This ties the old record of 100 set back in 1952

A record high temperature of 97 degrees was set at Tri-Cities today. This breaks the old record of 96 set back in 1952

Now at 101 in Knoxville. Humidity at 16%.

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