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Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-07-28, 11:05 am

The Summer of 2009 featured persistent NAO blocking nearly all summer. This summer has also featured alot of NAO blocking. The winter of 2009/2010 also featured a high amount of NAO blocking.

The U.S Coast Guard says that sea ice has been blocking the supply ships route's on the Bering sea this summer. They say they havent seen conditions like this since July of 2009.

On a similar note...For the first time since July of 2009 it appears that there will be no Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic for the current month of July.

2009/2010 has become a good analog for the coming winter in regards to current weather patterns and expected ENSO conditions this coming winter. A good analog is only that... an analog. That doesn't mean that this winter will be exactly like 2009/2010. It just means that weather patterns could be similar.

As a result of the NAO blocking from Dec 2009 to March 2010. Temps averaged well below normal in the eastern U.S. 2009/2010 will likely be one of the winter analogs (probably the coldest) I use for a forecast

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-08-17, 7:01 pm

The winter of 2002/03 has become a heavily weighted analog in terms of ENSO and current/past wx patterns this year. The winter of 02/03 featured a mostly negative NAO which is a good thing.

Here are the 02/03 winter 500Mb height/2m temp anomalies. IMO this is one of the top analogs so far that has surfaced due to current and past wx patterns/current and predicted ENSO values.

02/03 DJF 500Mb Height anomaly


02/03 DJF 2m Temp anomaly


So far... most of the heavily weighted analogs look good for a colder than normal winter for big chunk of the eastern US. The down side (if you're a snow lover) or wild card is the cyclical nature of the NAO with respect to the analogs.

For instance June and July of 2002 featured a positive NAO and then flipped to negative that fall/winter.. where this June and July has featured a deeply negative NAO. I can totally see how the current NAO state could flip to a mostly positive one late in the fall and early in the winter which could kill alot of the potentially colder values in December and early January.

Later in the fall I will put all these analogs together with teleconnection and 500mb trends for my 2012/2013 winter outlook.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-17, 11:58 pm

still going with 76 77... carbon copy from what data i have been studying

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-18, 9:59 am

from what i read and been studying on really hard lately... the pacific decadal osciallation is going into a really negative stage for many years to come... as this runs in 20 to 25 years cycles... this is another reason many pro mets think we are heading into the winters like the late 60 s in the 70s... i see no reason to think this winter will be a barn burner... i am going out to think we are looking at a winter more like the mid to late 70s this year... plus many more to come... as we head towards the 2020 range...

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-08-18, 11:23 am

Good points Bruce..now lets looks at the PDO Index



One can clearly see that the last cold phase of the PDO started around 1950 and this cold phase has just started also. Thats why 1952/53 is the best analog using the PDO.

1952/53 was also a weak El Nino coming off of a Nina.. this makes 1952/53 a heavily weighted analog!


Now lets dig a little deeper into the winter of 1952/53 and look at the NAO trends for that year. June and July of 1952 featured a slightly negative NAO. The NAO stayed slightly negative through the fall with periods of more deeply negative values in November and Febuary. This makes 52/53 a triple weighted analog.

The Summer of 1952 also featured droughts and heatwaves on a scale of what we just experienced. Also the 500mb wx patterns during that summer were very similar to this summer. This will make the winter of 52/53 quadruply weighted.

Taking all that into account with the similarities of the PDO/NAO/ENSO and the very similar weather patterns that summer. It makes 52/53 the most heavily weighted analog I have.

Here is the 500mb anomaly for that winter


Ok here is a list of my personal analogs for this winter in order of weight or similarities

(1)1952/53
(2)2003/04
(3)2006/07
(4)1976/77
(5)2009/10
(6)1936/37

Thats 6 analogs that fit's everything pretty nicely. Now to possibly make the mean of those more accurate..I will rule out the coldest and warmest of those winter analogs.

It looks like the warmest will be 1936/37
Here is the 500Mb Anomaly for that winter


Ok.. glad to see that one go yikes

Now for the coldest of my analogs...right off the top of my head I know it will be between the winters of 2009/10 and 1976/77

Here is the temp anomalies for those two winters

76/77


09/10


I hate to see 76/77 go but its just too anomalous to use for an analog. In theory getting rid of your most anomalously warm and cold winters should make for a more accurate forecast..but that's just in theory.

Im glad I have had the time and oppurtunity to share the way I come up with a winter forecast. I tried to do this over at another forum and got ridiculed for it.


Now..that will leave these weighted analogs

(1)1952/53
(2)2003/04
(3)2006/07
(4)2009/10

I will wait until late fall to add one more analog year that matches the fall wx pattern. I will then be ready to use these analogs in a winter outlook along with 500mb and Indice trend data.


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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-18, 1:20 pm

Outstanding post toot... perhaps your best ever. rock on

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-08-20, 8:11 am

Yeah, good job Toot. That was interesting!
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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-08-20, 5:20 pm

Thanks yall..Interesting to see Paul Pastelok (Accuwx) pick two different analog winters that directly came before or followed two of the analogs that I picked.

I selected 2003/04 and he chose 2002/03. I chose 1952/53 he chose 1953/54 lmao

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-09-12, 8:24 pm

1983/84 is starting to show up as an analog to the upcoming weather pattern. Late September of 1983 featured extreme cold outbreak for that time of year..not unlike what is currently progged by guidance

September 21st 1983


This September 22nd as progged by the current run of the CMC


Now just for fun..here is how the winter of 83/84 turned out in terms of temperature


This is just an analog to the upcoming weather pattern. I havent looked at alot of the other paramaters for the said time period

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by snowdog on 2012-09-12, 11:07 pm

Off the top of my head PDO and AMO will probably be quite a bit different.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Coach B on 2012-09-13, 7:24 am

Toot wrote:1983/84 is starting to show up as an analog to the upcoming weather pattern.

Looks like December was very cold that year(coldest Christmas on record at Nashville), Jan a little below normal, and Feb close to normal. Snowfall near normal overall for OHX.

For Nashville:
Dec 24 1983 Hi 10 low -4
Dec 25 High 15 low -5

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-09-13, 8:17 am

Coach B wrote:
Looks like December was very cold that year(coldest Christmas on record at Nashville), Jan a little below normal, and Feb close to normal. Snowfall near normal overall for OHX.

For Nashville:
Dec 24 1983 Hi 10 low -4
Dec 25 High 15 low -5

Interesting Coach..the winter of 83/84 never stood out to me as a cold one until now. 83/84 is also a pretty odd winter too...the NAO that winter was positive in Dec..Jan and Feb! Just goes to show.. one can still get brutally cold conditions here without a negative NAO. Of course we all know the following winter was also brutally cold 84/85...Brrrr!!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-09-16, 11:49 am

Here is a weak Nino 500mb Anomaly that I have worked up this morning compared to 1981-2010 climo. This is all weak ninos since 1950 except for 1951/52!! For some reason the data set will not accept that year.



As you can see.. weak Ninos favor -NAO/+PNA blocking with a trough over the eastern US during winter.


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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-09-16, 4:09 pm

Now here is that same data broken down monthly

In December we can see that it is typically the warmest month of a weak El Nino winter as NAO blocking is of a less probability in December...but December still comes out cool because of anomalous PNA ridging out west



January seems to have the most high latitude blocking which would mean the best chance for a good snowstorm IMO.. but notice ridging out west is alot less than December



Febuary seems to be the coldest month on average during weak El Ninos as troughiness in the east is extremely dominant with the return to the +PNA/-NAO signal that most weak el ninos are known to have during the early fall and this year is no different!



After looking at these 500Mb anomalies.. one has to feel pretty good about a cooler than normal winter this year with the dual blocking signals showing up in most weak el nino winters.


Now.. if I factor in the current negative PDO regime that will knock every year after 1980 out and I get a list of weak El ninos during the last Negative PDO regime going back to 1950 and that DJF winter anomaly gets pretty sexy drool




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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-09-17, 8:11 am

I should clarify that the "weak Nino's" I used for the anomalies are based on ONI values from .4 -.7 during DJF from 1950 to current

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by snowdog on 2012-09-17, 4:38 pm

The negative PDO weak El Nino winters that you say look sexy must be the same ones Bastardi is looking at. He is expecting very cold conditions this winter (whats new right?) and has been saying it for the past couple of years.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-09-17, 5:53 pm

snowdog wrote:The negative PDO weak El Nino winters that you say look sexy must be the same ones Bastardi is looking at.

I doubt it...I based those off of ONI values during DJF...not sure others do it that way but it makes more sense to me. Anyways... at this point it does look like a colder than normal winter.. with several different paramaters supporting that. I will probably be on the cold train again this year too. Of course.. there is no way to predict the winter NAO and we all know if the NAO goes positive and its longterm.. a cold winter is almost impossible!! torch

This winter should be the first weak nino in this longterm negative phase of the PDO. cold

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-10-02, 6:58 pm

The winter of 1987/88 is now showing up as an ENSO and October weather pattern analog. There is a clear theme starting to unfold in these analogs.

Thats a cold southern tier of the nation.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Coach B on 2012-10-02, 8:16 pm

Toot wrote:The winter of 1987/88 is now showing up as an ENSO and October weather pattern analog. There is a clear theme starting to unfold in these analogs.

Thats a cold southern tier of the nation.

1988-The year with the statewide thump of snow from a classic Southern Slider with locked in cold before the storm hit. Haven't seen that much the last couple of decades. Don't remember much the rest of the winter though.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-10-04, 5:03 pm

I dont remember that one Coach. I was probably too busy trying on a new pair of parachute pants beer


Meanwhile here is some cool climo maps from La Nina and El Nino winters from 1950-2010!

El Nino winter temps


El Nino winter Precip



La Nina winter temps


La Nina winter Precip

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-10-09, 8:53 pm

Image on the left is temp departures from normal the first week of October this fall. The image on the right is the whole month of October from 2009

Things that make you go hmmm popcorn




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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-10-09, 11:04 pm

One last tidbit before I turn in

Notable winters with negative AO Octobers

Winter
1950/51 (33.5 inches of snow in Nashville)
1959/60 (38.5 inches of snow in Nashville)
1976/77 (21.5 inches of snow in Nashville)
1984/85 (18.6 inches of snow in Nashville)
2002/03 (15.1 inches of snow in Nashville)
2009/10 (7.5 inches of snow in Nashville)
2010/11 (12.5 inches of snow in Nashville)

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

Post by Toot on 2012-10-11, 10:11 pm

If the GFS ensembles are correct October will probably average a negative AO of at least -1.00. I Just ran the numbers on Negative October AO's of at least -1.00...and let me tell ya its cold cold

And a hair on the dry side in middle and western TN

Temp departure from normal average


Precip departure from normal average


This paramater gives an idea of where a mean troff will/has setup.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

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