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MJO Impact On Winter

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MJO Impact On Winter

Post by Toot on 2012-07-15, 6:28 pm

I got a few questions via text message today about tropical forcing and its impacts on winter weather here in the eastern U.S..so I decided to add to some of my own research and post it here.

The MJO is an important oscialltion to consider for Summer weather around here. Its also an important value to consider in areas that experience Tropical and Monsoon type weather.

The MJO can enhance precipitation in places such as Brazil.. Africa.. and Indonesia during boreal winter.. Mexico & Centarl America and Southeast Asia during boreal summer. It can also increase the intensities in precip associated with monsoon's in favored areas during their typical monsoon season.

There is also some evidence that the MJO can influence the speed in which an ENSO cycle develops... and possibly can influence the overall intensity of a positive cycle of ENSO.

MJO research regarding ENSO hasnt been proven and it would be extremely hard to tell if it affects the ENSO cycle at all. Now im not saying it wont influence some other place and those effects end up influencing our winter... but that can hardly be predicted..much less be included in a winter forecast for any part of the Eastern U.S

Here is a graphic from NOAA/CPC/NCEP/NWS that shows where and what effects the MJO has during Boreal winter




90+% of it's effects is in or along the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence zone) during Boreal winter.



All that said..there is alot of research showing a relationship between the PNA and the MJO during winter. The MJO values that coincide with a highly positive PNA will result in Polar and Arctic airmasses infiltrating the Eastern US.

Now dont get me wrong..I do believe the MJO affects other areas more directly and those effects end up affecting us later in the winter to some degree... but I dont think the process that causes those effects can be measured. So therefore I cant use it in anykind of winter forecast...thats why I say it is unimportant in forecasting winter wx in the Eastern U.S


Last edited by Toot on 2012-07-15, 6:34 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: MJO Impact On Winter

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-07-15, 6:32 pm

very interesting toot indeed... drool

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Re: MJO Impact On Winter

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 7:43 pm

I got into a pretty intense debate over this very topic over at the supposed "Weather forum of all weather forums" American pffft

Of course they completely dismissed the NOAA graphic because it went against their beliefs!! Thats bad science folks..it amazes me what lengths that forum will go to to support red taggers even when they are in direct conflict with peer reviewed science!


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Re: MJO Impact On Winter

Post by Toot on 2012-11-17, 8:27 am

The debate at American yesterday is what inspired me to make this video..lmao!! If seeing cuss words in text offends you I would advise not to click play!



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