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Fall 2012 wx discussion

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Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-08-02, 12:56 pm

Anyone have a take on what this fall may be like ? Cool, Warm, Rainy, dry ? If this is in the wrong place please delete it . Thanks............................. And maybe when they think they will see there first frost of this fall. I know many of you live in difference places. Thanks Again......
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-02, 4:31 pm

Fall continues to look cooler than normal..and that will mean wetter than normal also. Im sure the CFS is picking up on the heights falling further south than they should be for this time of year.

Here is the the 2meter temp depature from normal means of met fall averaged on the last 10 days of CFSv1 runs

September


October


November


Looking at those and 500mb height means..it is my opinion that the last of this month/first of September COULD hold the POSSIBILITY of a severe wx outbreak in the OH/TN valleys and or the Mid Atlantic.

This will be due to the clashing of cP and mT airmasses. It will be fun watching the jetstream return southward for the fall/winter. drool

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-08-02, 4:37 pm

Thanks i wish that was for DJF. pals
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-02, 6:27 pm

yep fall will be cooler than normal just due to the fact nino is developing... we should get into some severe action early fall as the jet shifts back down this way more. also you throw in the battle of the air masses, should get intersting.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-08-02, 6:39 pm

I hope that don't lead to a mild to warm winter. I have seen some years were you have a cool or cold fall and then when winter gets here it turns out mild to warm. hope this don't happen. Could not stand another winter like we had this past year. All depends on AO,NAO, and how strong El Nino gets. Plus one or two other factors. torch
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-15, 7:08 pm

Its becoming clear that a full scale pattern change is taking place in the northern hemisphere...and its a much cooler one here in the east compared to what we have experienced the last few weeks.
Dual blocking signals have been established and what was lower heights in the gulf of Alaska has now become a powerful ridge of higher pressure.

This ridge is plotted by guidance to shift eastward and intensify into more of a strong PNA ridge. Mix that in with a Greenland block while the mid-latitude jetstream is in somewhat of a fall position and you end up with colder intrusions into the OH/TN Valley's and Northeast.

If this pattern does evolve into what the GFS suggests it could be as much as 20 degrees below normal at times in parts of the eastern US during the last half of August.

Definately a cool pattern change as we slide into more fall like weather.



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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-15, 7:23 pm

Lets hope it don't repeat last year and go back north after fall for winter. I want snow! Sad

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-16, 8:50 am

The next cold front may introduce widespread 30's in the higher elevations with temps flirting with the high 40's in unelevated areas. I know that sounds pretty strange for the middle of August... but it is what it is affraid

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Coach B on 2012-08-16, 8:58 pm

Toot wrote:The next cold front may introduce widespread 30's in the higher elevations with temps flirting with the high 40's in unelevated areas. I know that sounds pretty strange for the middle of August... but it is what it is affraid

I don't think its out of the question for some of the normally colder spots. I saw a couple of 51s and 52s on the hourly obs in middle TN last week.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-08-17, 6:50 pm

I know the September outlook from the NWS show above normal temps. We will see.
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-20, 7:05 pm

windstorm wrote:I know the September outlook from the NWS show above normal temps. We will see.

Ive come to the conclusion that the CPC has a warm bias during summer. I cant blame them it would have definately made ur forecasts more accurate the last few summers.

Looks like several places in eastern/middle TN may get near or break record lows in the AM. Knoxville's record is 57 and guidance shows it getting down to about the same. We will feel radiational cooling tonight with the bluebird skies...not brrrr by any means but cool for August!!



It will be interesting to see how cold Leconte gets down to in the morning cold

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Coach B on 2012-08-20, 8:51 pm

There were some upper 40s for lows on the Plateau this morning. Saw a few early risers who had on some light jackets as well. Don't see that much in August.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-23, 2:21 pm

September Weather likely cooler/wetter than normal for a big chunk of the eastern US!

Looking at the long range indice trends and monthly means of the CFS...one begins to a see a trend developing. That trend is cooler than normal over a big portion of the eastern US.

The +PNA /-NAO pattern continues to dominate the longwave pattern in the long range for the month of September. That configuration usually leads to a warm western US and a cool eastern US this time of year. One can also look at observed temp anomalies for the current month (which is about finished) and see the same pattern emerge.

Temp departure from normal for this month so far



I have also seen the ensembles predict the development of a positive NAO several times within the last couple of months.. only to see the actual values climb to more of a neutral state and then back negative again. So..I would be hesitant in trusting that particular package with any NAO predictions in the next couple of months.

I expect much of the same pattern to prevail for much of the month of September with at least 1-2 tropical threats to the eastern US during the month. I also expect El Nino to start showing up more often in the pattern during the month of September. It could be argued that several El Nino features are already showing up in the weather pattern..but thats a whole other discussion.

Anyways.. one should start to see some semblance of this graphic start to show up the further we get into fall.


Last edited by Toot on 2012-08-23, 8:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-23, 2:54 pm

I hope that changes before winter or snow lovers wont be so happy.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-08-30, 6:52 pm

Good news!!! Meteorological fall.. is about to begin! This marks the date at which the 3 warmest months on average are now over in the northern hemisphere!

As meteorological summer comes to an end (September 1st).. Isaac will deliver beneficial rains to the parched areas in the midwest and Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the central Atlantic! At this point.. Leslie does not look like a threat to the CONUS but we'll keep an eye on it anyway Wink

As Leslie starts to gain lattitude.. heights will start to build out west and help carve out a strong trough of low pressure in the eastern US.. where there could possibly be some severe weather associated with this trough. This pattern of warm west and cool east looks to continue over the next few weeks as the North Atlantic Oscillation trends negative again.

This will generally mean temps near to below normal in the Eastern US.. with near to above normal rainfall.




GO BIG ORANGE!!! pals

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-01, 6:01 pm

nice storms firing back in arkansas in the missouri bootheel...there has been some damage around corning arkie, with a nader report... west tn in tornado watch untill 11 tonight, i justgot off work... so i will have to sturdy n c whats going on... i will report back later. if needed

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-01, 6:23 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:nice storms firing back in arkansas in the missouri bootheel...there has been some damage around corning arkie, with a nader report... west tn in tornado watch untill 11 tonight, i justgot off work... so i will have to sturdy n c whats going on... i will report back later. if needed

I wondered where you were at. I am headed that way ( Bootheel ) in a few.
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-01, 7:48 pm

Low level jet should ramp up tonight out yalls way enhancing the TOR threat. Stay safe yall

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-01, 11:35 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:nice storms firing back in arkansas in the missouri bootheel...there has been some damage around corning arkie, with a nader report... west tn in tornado watch untill 11 tonight, i justgot off work... so i will have to sturdy n c whats going on... i will report back later. if needed

I wondered where you were at. I am headed that way ( Bootheel ) in a few.
you see anything up yalls way dyer... i got another tornado warning about 40 miles to my sw... its doppler indicated,starting to show some signs of rotation in mid levels... i have been out playing in the weather, havent seen to much... but i did run into a nice 55 mph wind gust when i was heading towards haywood co. that was the leading edge of that bow that canme through.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-01, 11:40 pm

just got back from taking dog outside to do her thing... nice dep thunder roaring again to my sw from that cell... also looks like some more trying to form back in central arkansas... man i love severe weather... i am hoping we are heading toward a active fall...

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-01, 11:45 pm

Yes. Awesome. I have video also.




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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 1:16 am

Awesome shots DW! beer

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-02, 5:45 am

yes very awsome shots.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 1:39 pm

The temperatures for the month of August have came in below normal over most of the Eastern United States.. while most of the Western United States has came in above normal. Unless the NAO continues to be positive..I expect September to resemble August in terms of temperatures relative to normal.


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 10:26 pm

The GFS ensembles are starting to lock on to the euros idea of a strong front next weekend


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