Summer 2012 WX Discussion

by **Toot** 2012-05-26, 6:31 pm

Yep...another summer is upon us and its about time to lay the spring wx discussion thread to rest. The interesting thing about the start of summer is that it looks to start off with what could be near record cool temps.

A strong LPS looks to usher in a cool and dry canadian airmass. This airmass will be enveloped in an unseasonably deep trough for this time of year with temps possibly as much as 10-20 degrees below normal in some spots.

Yes thats what I said uh oh

lol

Day 7
Summer 2012 WX Discussion O79jlu

Day 8

Deep trough is pretty much a given
Summer 2012 WX Discussion F180

The 18z GFS verbatim is 2-3 days of highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's pass out

by **snowdog** 2012-05-27, 9:52 am

I like it when you talk dirty to me Toot. wash

by **Toot** 2012-05-27, 10:10 am

snowdog wrote:I like it when you talk dirty to me Toot.

lmao

After the strong cold front passes through... check out the 30's breaking out in the mountains IN JUNE uh oh

With widespread lows in the 40's for over half of the state.

I'd say some record lows are going to be broken popcorn

Summer 2012 WX Discussion 2012052700_EUS_GFS_SFC_TEMP_IMAGE_174

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-27, 10:11 am

From JKL long term:

HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THEN WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.

I'm loving this long range outlook, especially after this weekend. You can't beat a day in June where highs struggle to reach the 70's.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-27, 10:23 am

From HPC:

MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE ADAMANT IN MAINTAINING THE STRONG NEGATIVE NAO...RESULTING IN SOME SLOWING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM LONGWAVE FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CLUSTERS REASONABLY WELL WITH THIS TREND...ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THE TREND WILL EITHER PERSIST OR POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. REGARDING CONFIDENCE..THE MAIN CONCERNS INVOLVE THE BLOCKING SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WHICH HELPS TO SPLIT THE APPROACHING UPPER JET OVER THE ROCKIES ON DAY 3/WED...AND POTENTIAL SUBSEQUENT INTERACTIONS WITH AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY. THE EXISTING SOLUTION SPREAD DEPICTS THESE CONCERNS WITH GROWING SPREAD BEYOND DAY 4/THU...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE SYSTEM EMPHASIS.

I guess if we couldn't have a -NAO during the winter months, we might as well enjoy it's influence at this late date. Better late than never.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-05-27, 1:39 pm

looking at latest long range data, the gfs is showing quite a few chance for storms n rain... looks like the storm track is starting to come south... could we be starting to early signs of the el nino... time will only tell.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-28, 8:51 pm

National High and Low Temperature (for the contiguous United States)
NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
Issued 8 am EDT Monday, May 28, 2012

High Temperature for Sunday, May 27, 2012
(as received by 8 am EDT May 28)
100 at Smyrna, TN

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-29, 6:45 am

From MRX Long term AFD:

A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE LATE WEEKEND...PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.

Looks like our cool down will be a brief respite from the summer heat. Sure hope everyone gets a good soaking rain over the next week. My grass is already turning brown after the baking heat of this weekend. It doesn't take long for the topsoil to dry out when its hot, and no rain falls. The latest drought monitor sure has a lot of color on it with much of the country at least "abnormally dry."

http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

One bit of good news is some areas of the Southeast (Georgia/South Carolina) will get some beneficial rain from Beryl.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-29, 5:14 pm

Getting a real frog strangler here this afternoon. Even the gutters are overflowing. Tropical downpour!

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-29, 5:24 pm

Talked to a friend in Morristown. He said they've had some roads blocked by flooding. Some areas look like small ponds in the road. Just too much water for the drainage ditches to handle, and it's accumulating in the roads.

Still raining here, and now having some intense lightning and loud bangs of thunder to go with it.

Edit: My friend actually called after pulling over somewhere between Jefferson City and Morristown. Looking at radar estimates in that area--some places did pick up between 1 to 2 inches of rain.

by **Adam2014** 2012-05-29, 5:26 pm

WxFreak wrote:Talked to a friend in Morristown. He said they've had some roads blocked by flooding. Some areas look like small ponds in the road. Just too much water for the drainage ditches to handle, and it's accumulating in the roads.

Still raining here, and now having some intense lightning and loud bangs of thunder to go with it.

You are lucky, I am putting my money on the cold front to our north.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-29, 5:44 pm

Rain stops, then it pours yet again. Now pouring with the sun out. Checked the rain gauge, and already approaching an inch.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-29, 5:59 pm

Rain stopped. Sun coming out. Feels like a sauna outside now. I had almost .90" of rain, and it all fell in a very short amount of time.

by **Toot** 2012-05-29, 6:03 pm

Got some photos of some nice boomers that came by the shop today

Summer 2012 WX Discussion 4si1w8

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-29, 6:07 pm

Nice pics. Yeah, that's how it looked when I got home, right before the sky opened up.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-29, 6:10 pm

Serious tropical rains today, at least for some. I think a bit of moisture from Beryl helped generate some of these downpours this afternoon. At least it looked that way from earlier SAT pics--as a bit of convergence between Beryl and the incoming front seemed to be taking place over far east TN.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
557 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNC009-300000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.FA.Y.0044.120529T2157Z-120530T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BLOUNT TN-
557 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 554 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ONE TO AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR FROM AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF MARYVILLE AND WEST OF HAPPY VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ON HALF INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

by **Adam2014** 2012-05-29, 6:58 pm

Some pretty big storms developing along the weak front we have today. [img]

[/img]

by **Jed33** 2012-05-29, 8:14 pm

WxFreak wrote:Talked to a friend in Morristown. He said they've had some roads blocked by flooding. Some areas look like small ponds in the road. Just too much water for the drainage ditches to handle, and it's accumulating in the roads.

Still raining here, and now having some intense lightning and loud bangs of thunder to go with it.

Edit: My friend actually called after pulling over somewhere between Jefferson City and Morristown. Looking at radar estimates in that area--some places did pick up between 1 to 2 inches of rain.

I just got home to find 1.20 inches in the gauge. I could see from right on the Jefferson/Cocke co. line back toward Morristown, that some big rain/storms were going back this way, but it just sort of died down before it got to newport. They got Laughing

some rain, but it was wild how it just kinda bypassed the area where I was. Maybe later in the week, we can all get some more rain!

by **Adam2014** 2012-05-29, 11:11 pm

Have 1.64 in the rain gauge after tonight.

by **Toot** 2012-05-30, 5:23 pm

One of the coolest starts to summer that I can remember. Temps will be 10-20 degrees below normal for a couple of days with widespread lows in the 40's June 2nd pass out

by **snowdog** 2012-05-30, 5:51 pm

Record low for June 2nd at BNA is 46 (1956)...looks like we could flirt with that although it will be hard with the urban heat island around BNA.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-31, 8:32 am

Me and two buddies are rebuilding a deck at my place from the ground up this weekend, and I couldn't have picked a better weekend to do it! 70's on Saturday! cheers

by **snowdog** 2012-05-31, 12:01 pm

I like what the Euro has been selling in the long range. Looks to be around normal temps with troughiness over the east.

by **Toot** 2012-05-31, 11:29 pm

After a shortlived but rather intense cool down it Looks like a very active pattern emerging. One of a high speed NW Flow. MCS's everywhere...some areas may pick up several inches of rain in the next two weeks with temps near the seasonal norm

by **WxFreak** 2012-06-01, 8:20 am

Toot wrote:After a shortlived but rather intense cool down it Looks like a very active pattern emerging. One of a high speed NW Flow. MCS's everywhere...some areas may pick up several inches of rain in the next two weeks with temps near the seasonal norm

Very similar to June 2009 in East Tennessee. As I mentioned before, my area saw some minor flooding in May/June of that year.