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Fall 2012 wx discussion

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-04, 5:23 pm

The 18z NAM is suggesting the possibility of some high elevation rain/snow showers/flurries along the spine of the Apps sunday night into monday. pals

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-04, 6:20 pm

The upper plains cyclone is really raking in the cold air this evening! Its this system's cold front that will bring widespread frosts to the eastern US. Even some mountain snow will be possible in the higher elevations of the Apps Sunday into Monday! Yep..somebody just flipped the switch!

The image below shows the vigorous 850mb low via the current 850mb temp gradient. Red numbers are current surface temps with wind direction. Impressive to say the least!


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-05, 4:12 am

Though I'm sure it's complete fantasy, the gfs has frigid temps and potential snow showers by the 19th or so. I enjoy early season fantasy flakes!


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-10-05, 10:35 am

I would like to see some flakes early this year. cold
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-10-05, 9:34 pm

the gfs looks like balls to the walls with storminesss in the mid to longer range... details as we get closer to each event. the nao is absolutely fixing to crash

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-05, 10:37 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:the gfs looks like balls to the walls with storminesss in the mid to longer range... details as we get closer to each event. the nao is absolutely fixing to crash

Looking at ensembles... a good warm up towards the middle of the month would seem likely but this has also been a false signal for about a month now in the extended. The pattern the models show could be conducive for a severe wx event but im not so sure I buy the western trough just yet.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-06, 12:45 am

71 in Nashville wow 43 in Paducah wow

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-08, 8:14 am

Meanwhile...here in east TN it will struggle to reach 50 degrees today. Northern parts will probably not see 50!! cold

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-08, 8:31 am

I can feel the winter excitement building. It's gonna be a good one folks.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by VFL on 2012-10-08, 11:13 am

popcorn
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-08, 3:21 pm

Ugly looking long range from the 12z models today.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-10-08, 4:20 pm

snowdog wrote:Ugly looking long range from the 12z models today.
yea, it almost looks la ninish... did i just say that? lol!

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-08, 6:54 pm

The October warmup is and was expected...I personally hope November is warm also. That said.. the EPO is still the dominant local oscillation! When its negative.. the troff has dominated the east and when it goes positive a warmup is a good bet! Even tho the AO/NAO will likely be neutral to negative the pattern wont reflect eastern cold due to the EPO dominating the weather pattern over North America.

A clear switch in the EPO from negative (Cold Eastern US) to positive (Warm Eastern US) looks to happen over the next week or so..and that will mean warmer temps.



Not sure how long the EPO can continue to dominate with the AO continuing to be forecast to go even more negative.

(Time Sensitive...Hotlinked)

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-08, 7:35 pm

18z GFS hr156


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-10-08, 9:10 pm

Toot wrote:18z GFS hr156

pretty impressive for this time of year... but we are fixing to be entering into the heart of our secondary severe season... which i like to call it from late october to the end of novemeber, can last up to very early december.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-09, 7:55 am

Most forecasts missed the low temps this morning here in east TN by at least 10 degrees. This was due to cloud cover not exiting as thought... been a steamy 49 here all night last night and this morning. MRX had lows into the 30's here beer

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-09, 9:11 am

It was 32 degrees in Paris this morning with a light frost. cold
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-09, 4:57 pm

Canadian model has been consistently saying "what October warmup?" while the Euro and GFS have been waffling back and forth

Be interesting to see if its on to something

12zCMC..valid October 19th



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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-09, 5:23 pm

12 GFS/Euro looked better in the long range than the past couple of days. Will be interesting to see what transpires in the next couple of days as this becomes more medium range.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-09, 6:34 pm


My interests have peaked on the next couple of lakes cutter type storm systems.... especially the second one near 16th-18th timeframe. I would keep an eye on this system as teleconnections could be signaling the possibility of a strong storm! The NAO and AO are both progged to drop off to negative values not seen since June of this year and possibly deeper! This could very well be an important timeframe in regards to the evolving cold season weather pattern over North America.


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-10-09, 9:47 pm

Toot, TYPHOON TIP fromamerican wx mentioned today that both the euro and gfs are showing a nasty looking -ao in the extended and also signs of a greenland block tryn to form. Wanted to know if u agreed with that or not? Also, i heard that more times than not, a -ao in november coorelated to a -ao in january. Is there any merit to that? Supposively, we want to see the eastern 2/3rds of asia warmer than normal in november to have a better chance also for a -ao. If there is anything else u wanna add to that, please fill us in.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-09, 9:54 pm

Ya..as I said earlier...AO/NAO are both progged to enter values more negative than they have been all year. This is a good sign for winter wx lovers. Both 09/10 and 10/11 had neg AO Octobers. November -AO does have a decent correlation to January -AO's..especially during positive ONI Autumns

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-09, 10:15 pm

I moved the severe weather posts into their own thread
"October Severe Wx" It was getting a little confusing in here

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t442-october-severe-wx#16699d

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-10-09, 11:20 pm

Toot, would it be good to have a monster vortex in the pole region to an extent to allow the snowpack to build up and also bottle up the cold longer as long as its not overly strong? It was enormous last winter til the ssw event weakened it, but all cold went in other directions instead down here uh oh

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-10-10, 5:48 am

last nites 0z gfs looked much colder in the longer range thatn its been showing lately... could be blocking setting up, time will tell.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

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