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Fall 2012 wx discussion

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-02, 10:47 pm

Toot wrote:The GFS ensembles are starting to lock on to the euros idea of a strong front next weekend

front looks strong, but were is the surface low pressure, perhaps a lakes cutter?

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 10:56 pm

The ensembles are weaker with the low but they have trended north with the stormcenter like the euro. The euro is probably a bit too strong as it likes to deepen lows too much sometimes. Be interesting to see how it unfolds

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-03, 4:18 pm

if models r correct... we could be looking at some spots getting down to the upper 40s in the most cooler locations by sunday nite... yes here in west tn even.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-03, 7:02 pm

Bring it on, am ready. Good bye to the Summer Time Blues... pals
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-03, 7:16 pm

The 18zgfs is what I call a cold season trough..and its the first one ive seen since the last cold season pals


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-04, 7:01 pm

Big changes in the weather department...A strong cold front is on the way! This system will bring severe weather and a cooler air mass to the eastern united states this weekend!!

This strong storm system will help change the longwave pattern across the united states also. The zonal flow pattern that weve been in for a few days will be coming to an end as significant amplification takes place this weekend!! This will likely be the last of summer type weather north of the mason dixon line.

Much cooler temperatures especially during the day time will be the name of the game. Highs will struggle to get out of the 70's and if the night sky becomes clear after the frontal passage.. I could see widespread 30's in the higher elevations of the southern Appalachian mountains!

The severe weather part of the forecast will be a little harder to pin down at this point.. as models are still in disagreement with the behavior and depth of a low pressure system.


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-07, 5:36 pm

As much as 30 degrees cooler behind the cold front this evening! Impressive front!!


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-09-07, 5:45 pm

Bring it on Toot. I'm sick of this hot muggy crap. Can't mow the yard without sweating through my tee-shirt.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-07, 7:50 pm

An even more significant trough looks likely in about two weeks (Around the 20th)..ensembles are keying in on this feature very early!




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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-08, 10:14 am

I woke up in Heaven rock on
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-08, 10:42 am

Dyersburg Weather wrote:I woke up in Heaven rock on

No doubt you did...im still waiting on it here. It will probably clear here about dark thirty Smile Probably mother natures official start to the fall season! cheers


Last edited by Toot on 2012-09-08, 2:34 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Coach B on 2012-09-08, 11:05 am

Nothing measurable here. Just a light shower this morning. I'm thinking we're done with the AC for a while. cheers

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-09, 11:27 am

Global models are starting to develop winter like split flow over North America and its quite early for that pattern!! If such a pattern does develop it could set the stage for some early Nor'easters pals


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-09, 2:02 pm

i am ready for a strong surface low pressure to get carved out n form in the southern plains then ride through the lower ohio valley region... mad

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-09, 3:27 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i am ready for a strong surface low pressure to get carved out n form in the southern plains then ride through the lower ohio valley region... mad

One of them OH Valley Screamers scared



Meanwhile.. it is freakin awesome outside!! beer

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-09-10, 12:55 am

45 this morning, hopefully we approach it tomorrow morning too. About time to close the pool.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-10, 4:52 pm

John1122 wrote:45 this morning, hopefully we approach it tomorrow morning too. About time to close the pool.

Nice weather for sure..looks like Leconte broke into the 30's this morning at 38.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-10, 5:57 pm

Still watching the possibility of an early season intrusion of some even colder air near the 20th of the month!!

ECMWF Valid Sep 18th

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-09-10, 11:11 pm

Toot, the split flow u mentioned in a previous post is interesting. The AAM would have a total response to elnino if that actually transpires. If not, the AAM would still be having lingering effects of lanina, hence not allowing the subtropical jet to get cranked up quite yet. Toot, if u know how to read a QBO chart from cpc, please explain it in how to predict when it will turn positive. From what i understand, we want to see a + qbo coupled with higher sunspot activity cliffdive

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-10, 11:59 pm

Im not sure which chart you are referring to from the CPC Neutral I do know a little about the QBO and its not something I put a great amount of importance on during winter..but that's just like my opinion and stuff. Razz

I do understand that the negative or easterly phase of the QBO correlates to an increased rate of high lattitude blocking and vice versa. This is directly due to the westerlies being much weaker during the easterly or negative phase of the QBO. But here again.. there are other things that also weaken the westerlies.

Aside from that I dont consider the QBO much help when trying to determine winter weather at any timeframe.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-09-11, 7:07 am

Big huge monster cold front coming in the 10-15 day period. CMC, euro, gfs all on board by 10 days (at least the pieces are in place) gfs has lows in the 30s statewide on 9/25

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-11, 8:52 am

jmundie wrote:Big huge monster cold front coming in the 10-15 day period. CMC, euro, gfs all on board by 10 days (at least the pieces are in place) gfs has lows in the 30s statewide on 9/25

Monster PNA ridge drool




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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-12, 7:33 pm

global models are in very good agreement showing 540 1000mb and 500mb thickness pretty far south folks... if this hold true, we may be fixing to break or at least flirt with it on record lows for this time of year cold

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-13, 8:59 am

Looking at how cold and amplified guidance has become.. frost a month early certainly seems plausible. The average first date for frost in unelevated areas around here is in the last of October.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-13, 4:43 pm

Ensembles are saying temps 10-20 degrees below normal by next thursday


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

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