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Fall 2012 wx discussion

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-17, 8:47 pm

jmundie wrote:CMC and Euro looking interesting next weekend...

Mrgolf wrote:Jmundie, what are they showing? Does any1 know?


Guys... FYI we have a thread for that system

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t471p75-eastern-us-winter-storm-possiblethanksgiving-timeframe#18489

Lets keep posts related to winter wx during that timeframe in that thread. This will help keep things unconfusing due to not posting the same stuff in two different threads

Thanks

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-18, 2:18 pm

both the gfs and euro latest on board for a severe threat from the southern plains to the midsouth area. 26th to 28th time frame looks ominous

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by andyhb on 2012-11-19, 12:09 am

Yeah, let's wait before we say on board, while there probably will be a solid air mass in front of this, the GFS is still in post-truncation with the majority of it and there is a lot of uncertainty on how much it is going to amplify, although I will say that HUN mentioned it in their last AFD, which is quite strange considering they are a fairly conservative WFO.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-19, 7:05 am

Just a note on this November.. I have only gotten 1.68 inches of rain so far this month. If we don't get some good rains in the next 2 weeks this will be a dry November. I hope this is not setting the standard for this up coming winter. facepalm
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tom23 on 2012-11-19, 7:08 am

windstorm wrote:Just a note on this November.. I have only gotten 1.68 inches of rain so far this month. If we don't get some good rains in the next 2 weeks this will be a dry November. I hope this is not setting the standard for this up coming winter. facepalm

Active times are ahead. Stay patient. This next system looks like it could pack a punch.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-11-19, 7:41 am

the 06z op GFS was full of all sorts of fail.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-19, 8:23 am

snowdog wrote:the 06z op GFS was full of all sorts of fail.

Yeah - the pv drops into Canada, yet somehow we stay in a zonal pattern.

I think it's way off base. The evolution to get there doesn't make sense. But we'll see I guess.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-11-19, 10:03 am

I agree Mundie, I have a hard time believing we would stay zonal throughout the period. I just thought it was funny more than anything.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-21, 6:09 pm

As we transition from Fall to Winter, I am semi-concerned that this "La Nada"/extremely weak nino just doesn't allow for many variations in temps and precip. The last month is an example cool nights, but mild, dry days. I wonder if when it does flip to cold, if it may not just stay cold with nothing much to change it. Same with precip, where it's so dry, I wonder if it might be a cold dry winter. Just an uneducated thought. What do you guys think?

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-21, 6:13 pm

The 18z gfs was absolute crazy town at H5 - retrogrades a vortex from Newfoundland to Seattle.

Not sure if that's even physically possible.

Regardless - the signal is for a serious block to set in the first week of December, and I imagine we keep neg nao for the entire month.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-22, 7:12 pm

looking at latest gfs 18z... long range looks more like a severe setup than it does a winter storm threat... that se ridge is flexing have to admitt... and pattern looks to get active with the storm track taking suface lows nw of us... all i am seeing is just some transient cold shots here n there... now before i get roasted by some certain folks on the forum, i know this can change over night... just stating by the latest models

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tom23 on 2012-11-22, 7:45 pm

To be fair, it was the 18z gfs. If the same holds true on the 0z package tonight on the models, then it may be time to start giving it credence. But the 18z is known for having days of partying like its 1985, we all know that sauce

But Tnstorm, good analysis on it. As you said, it was just one model run and it can change overnight.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-22, 7:58 pm

tom23 wrote:partying like its 1985,

LOL..1985? What happened in 1985 to bring on all this partying?


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-22, 8:16 pm

Tom are you referring to "party like it's 1999" by Prince. Cause, I'm like Toot, I have no idea what you're talking about. Unless of course you're reffering to the epic snowstorms of Jan. 1985. Then, yeah, we can party if we get another like those for sure

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-22, 8:17 pm

Toot wrote:
tom23 wrote:partying like its 1985,

LOL..1985? What happened in 1985 to bring on all this partying?

hey toot, i can tell you one thing that happened in 1985 that was worth partying over, we had one hell of a winter buddy. cold

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tom23 on 2012-11-22, 8:53 pm

Jed33 wrote:Tom are you referring to "party like it's 1999" by Prince. Cause, I'm like Toot, I have no idea what you're talking about. Unless of course you're reffering to the epic snowstorms of Jan. 1985. Then, yeah, we can party if we get another like those for sure

Bwahaha... my great prophetic mind is showing me that this Winter will be record breaking... they call me "Tomstradamus"!

Haha nah, its alluding to a rap song

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-23, 5:59 am

now in the long range gfs. its in the fantasy hours, but looks like a strong alaska ridge is trying to develop... with some very cold air coming down over the top of it... just keep eye and see if this hold

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-23, 7:38 am

As dry as it's getting, i'd just like to see precipitation, lol. Literally, since "Sandy" dropped .75in, we haven't had anything but cool nights and warm dry days. There are extremely dry conditions developing around the area now, and several wildfires have been burning. One, in particular near Mooresburg in Hawkins Co. has burned over 2000 acres. Must likely result is probably a hunter throwing out a cigarette. Please be careful guys and gals when throwing out cigarette butts anytime, but esp. When it's dry like this.


Last edited by Jed33 on 2012-11-23, 7:42 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Spelling)

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-11-23, 1:32 pm

Zzzzzz. Wake me up around Dec. 5th. Looks like the pattern might turn favorable around that time. The Pacific has been a complete mess recently.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-23, 3:20 pm

snowdog wrote:Zzzzzz. Wake me up around Dec. 5th. Looks like the pattern might turn favorable around that time. The Pacific has been a complete mess recently.

I agree..this is about the next timeframe that catches my eye too. Possible dual blocking signal with the alignment of a -EPO/-NAO/-AO. I'll take my chances with that in the second week of December on any day of the week!


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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-23, 8:41 pm

the pacific even in the long range still looks like sharrrt... Crying or Very sad

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-11-23, 11:09 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:the pacific even in the long range still looks like sharrrt... Crying or Very sad

It doesn't look great but it doesn't look as bad. Long range GFS and Euro ensemble guidance shows both the PNA and EPO hanging out around neutral to slightly positive.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by etnwx on 2012-11-24, 7:22 pm

At 30 degrees already. Dew point is at 22. I'm thinking a low of 23 at my local.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-24, 9:00 pm

gfs looks some better in the long range... but we have seen this before, here now and gone next run... nice tall ridge out west looks great, but we have to somehow get these systems to undercut the ridge and form near the four corners, sw part of the country... instead up in the northwest part of the nation... not going to get much winter mischief for us in this pattern

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-24, 9:24 pm

What some seem to be missing/ignoring (Including Bruce) is the tanking Arctic Oscilllation!!




What this implies is huge for cold and snow lovers.. and bad for heating bills! Its what ive been talking about for a couple months now... A deeply negative AO winter! This AO forecast signals the warming of the stratospheric/tropospheric polar vortex. When the polar vortex weakens/warms the direct result is lots of high latitude blocking including the Pacific region!

You get lots of high lat blocking and its going to be cold and active. The pattern change is already occuring to some degree but you wont see it in the flow here for a couple of weeks when the PV goes through a partial to full break down. How long it lasts is anyones guess but it will probably be around for at least a month or two.

If you're looking for a colder pattern just be patient.. its gonna arrive and by no means is this anything like last winter when there was a raging record posistive AO!! I suggest not looking so deeply into each run of the operational models for anything consistent.. because they will change to something different every day and it will only drive you crazy.
Smile

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

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