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Fall 2012 wx discussion

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Coach B on 2012-09-24, 8:28 am

Had to scrape the first frost off the windshield this morning. Cool

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-24, 10:33 am

Lo this day of 46. High going into lower 70's today. Already see some color showing up in the trees. Anyone one know what the state low was this morning ? Not counting the high Mts tops. Thanks have a great day.
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-09-24, 4:41 pm

Frosty 34 this morning. Might be a while before we get that low again.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-24, 6:17 pm

windstorm wrote:Lo this day of 46. High going into lower 70's today. Already see some color showing up in the trees. Anyone one know what the state low was this morning ? Not counting the high Mts tops. Thanks have a great day.

Looks like Lewisburg TN (Unelevated) got down to 36 this morning at 6am.

No frost here in Mtown..just a hair too warm. Another cool night in store tho! Love this weather wash

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-24, 6:42 pm

MOUNT LECONTE 6400 53 29
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-09-25, 9:00 am

A cool 43 here this morning

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-25, 11:46 am

windstorm wrote: MOUNT LECONTE 6400 53 29
Wonder why NWS list MT. Leconte at 6400 ft. I think it is 6,593 ft. thanks Low here this morn was 46. Looks like a warm up. Best i can tell it looks like most of fall will be a mild one. Anyone think difference ?
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Coach B on 2012-09-25, 4:27 pm

windstorm wrote:
windstorm wrote: MOUNT LECONTE 6400 53 29
Wonder why NWS list MT. Leconte at 6400 ft. I think it is 6,593 ft.

I'm guessing the weather instruments are not located on the actual summit.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-25, 6:35 pm

ok thanks
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-30, 2:49 pm

12z gfs looks pretty darn cold for this time of year in the mid to longer range... nice deep trough setting up towards late next weekend... the euro last nite didnt have this solution... we will see if the euro starts to go towards the gfs... it looses the severe for the midsouth area as surface low is way to north... but i am liking the pattern cause the southern stream looks to stay quite active... the gfs has almost a cross polar flow look to it.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-30, 4:15 pm

the cmc is on board with much colder october temps... euro starting to trend in that directon also... cold

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-10-01, 10:52 am

Man if we can get about 5 or 6 of these LP tracks this winter it will be on. Absolutely perfect for a big snow at my house.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-01, 12:26 pm

Is this our 1st lakes cutter of the season?

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-01, 6:06 pm

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 658 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING

IN TENNESSEE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CANNON COFFEE CUMBERLAND
DEKALB GRUNDY PUTNAM
RUTHERFORD SMITH VAN BUREN
WARREN WHITE WILSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTAMONT...CARTHAGE...COOKEVILLE...
CROSSVILLE...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...MOUNT JULIET...
MURFREESBORO...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...SPENCER...
TULLAHOMA AND WOODBURY.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-10-01, 6:15 pm

Disregard the last comment lol, Tornado Warning in middle tennessee. Broad rotation but it is there.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-01, 6:20 pm

This one has never impressed me in the least way..just too much junk convection associated with this system. That said..a quick spinup is always possible.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-10-01, 6:43 pm

Toot wrote:This one has never impressed me in the least way..just too much junk convection associated with this system. That said..a quick spinup is always possible.
yeah, i second that also... not only junk trash convection mess it up... the slp moved pretty much due north versues more ne.. taking the best dynamcis away from area were the best instability was which was to our se, areas of east alabama and western georgia. stick a fork in her for as tornadoes go..

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-01, 7:14 pm

I see the euro finally caved to the GFS with the cold intrusion evl

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-01, 8:42 pm

A look at the very strong cold front progged for next weekend..Via Euro graphics courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics. Notice there is nearly a 40 degree temp difference between the Memphis area and just 100 or so miles NW. Near 80 in Memphis and in the low 40's in SE Missouri.
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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-02, 7:25 pm

12zEuro showing widespread 30's nearly statewide monday/tuesday Probably sneak on down into the 20's in the higher elevations

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-02, 9:04 pm

Looks like north central Siberia has been snow kissed recently. Just looked at the NH snow map.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-02, 9:07 pm

snowdog wrote:Toot, don't be such a priss. Jacket weather don't start till November 1st, no matter what. cold

I saw a lot of people breaking the jacket rule today in downtown Nashville. I'm proud to say I wasn't one of them.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-02, 10:17 pm

This weekend - highs struggling to get to the 50s Saturday, lows in the 30s, sounds like coat weather to me.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-03, 10:15 pm

Winter storm watches and warnings out in the upper plains..pretty potent cyclone!

Code:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
757 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 6
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
10 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NORTH
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY.

MNZ001-002-004-007-NDZ007-008-016-026-027-029-030-054-050600-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.W.0003.121004T0600Z-121005T0600Z/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-
EASTERN WALSH-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-STEELE-TRAILL-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...HALLOCK...WARREN...LANGDON...CAVALIER...GRAFTON...
LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...ADAMS
757 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO
1 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
  WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE NEAR ZERO ON THURSDAY WITHIN FALLING AND
  BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHEN HEAVY SNOW
  COMBINES WITH THE STRONG WINDS IN OPEN COUNTRY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT LARGE
  VARIATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHORT DISTANCES FROM MELTING SNOW.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ON TREE BRANCHES MAY CAUSE THEM TO
  BREAK SINCE LEAVES ARE STILL ON MANY TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-10-04, 5:10 pm

OHX already has a special wx statement out for their CWA regarding frost!

Code:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-050515-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
246 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...FROST EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FROST TO FORM.
CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. PERSONS WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FROST.

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Re: Fall 2012 wx discussion

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