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Hurricane Ernesto

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Hurricane Ernesto

Post by Toot on 2012-08-02, 4:45 pm

Its Official...We now have Tropical Storm Ernesto and he may get into the GOM for some fun...lets hope so!!





Last edited by Toot on 2012-08-07, 7:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Hurricane Ernesto

Post by Toot on 2012-08-02, 5:49 pm

Discussion from my blog

Tropical Storm Ernesto has been declared this afternoon. Ernesto is located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. His motion is mostly west at around 20 Knots. Tropical Storm watches have been issued for many of the Islands in the Carribean Sea.

Ernesto is currently in and is expected to continue in a low shear enviroment. He is also currently forming an anticyclone overhead to protect him any from any unexpected shear. The waters that he will be traversing are very warm and will lend plenty of fuel for the fire. I dont see much that will discourage organization.

I expect Ernesto to strengthen into a Hurricane this weekend and he will then gradually gain a little latitude. Steering currents could send this into southern gulf of Mexico by early next week. This is beginning to look alot like a Texas system to me..but there is still too many uncertainties just yet to know exactly where this will end up.

The likely track is just a couple of ticks north of the Yucatan peninsula. That said... the chances of an East Coast landfall look very slim but the Gulf Of Mexico is still open for buisness in my opinion.




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Re: Hurricane Ernesto

Post by Toot on 2012-08-07, 7:36 pm

Hurricane Ernesto is ramping up in the Western Carribean and will be making his first landfall tonight/AM near Chetumal, Mexico. His central pressure has dropped to 983Mb with 80MPH sustained winds and will probably be quite a bit stronger than that at landfall.

Eyes will turn to the east coast for possible tropical cyclone activity as we get closer to the middle of the month...as there are several interesting products of the African tropical wave machine currently in the central and eastern Atlantic.

Sun going down on Hurricane Ernesto as we speak!



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