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Hurricane Isaac

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-08-24, 7:44 am

I wonder how much strength Issac can build once he gets out into the Florida Straights and the Gulf? Interesting to keep up with it. popcorn Looks like my Mom and Dad might get some rain/little wind from it. Of course that can change due to track!
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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-24, 8:47 am

Good Morning

Tropical storm Isaac has become better organized with pressure around a 1000Mb and winds of 50mph. He has consolidated around one low level center that has actually formed well south of the NHC's fix.

This storm will NOT make landfall in Haiti.. its just too far south and would take an almost a due north motion for that to happen. Yes they will still get rains and wind.. but nothing like a landfall.

Wxeastern feels very comfortable with the forecast made yesterday so no changes are expected. If you live on the gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida..you need be prepared to evacuate. This COULD be a very dangerous storm! I wouldnt wait until the last minute..its much easier to say "We should have stayed" than it is to say "We should have evacuated"

Next update will be this evening around 5-6PM. You can find our forecast here

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=298391723601920&set=a.275405409233885.61040.275381239236302&type=1&theater


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by windstorm on 2012-08-24, 10:32 am

If this goes where they are thinking some good rains could be on tap for the SE.
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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-24, 5:45 pm

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to intensify in the Carribean this evening.. with winds of 65MPH and a pressure of 994Mb. The NHC has did a great job with this system.. as they nailed where the dominant center finally took over. Kudos to them!!

It does look like Isaac will make a landfall in the mountainous regions of Cuba.. which will try to disrupt his newly formed core. I expect Isaac's core will re-emerge back over the warm waters of the gulf virtually unscathed. There may be some minor wind speed and pressure drops but thats about all I expect!

If Isaac were a small tropical cyclone those mountains would likely disturb the core pretty badly.. but since Isaac is a huge storm with a massive amount of associated forcing..It will be hard to kill the core of such a powerful and massive Tropical Storm. Cuba may slow Isaac down a bit.. but its not going to stop him from becoming a strong tropical cyclone in the gulf of Mexico. He may not become a major.. but more than likely he will become a strong hurricane!

Given the favorable atmospheric conditions and the warm waters of the gulf.. I just cannot see how a storm with so much influence be bridled to a category one storm. I dont see it.

Yep that's Issac!! Yep he is still a tropical storm!! Yep he is Gigantic!!

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-24, 8:31 pm

18z Tropics models for Isaac

Clustered in the Florida Straights! Going to be some flooding issues in the SE and maybe some wind a rain showers here in east TN thanks to Isaac.


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-24, 8:47 pm

Were is all the lines going west of us at? I thought the thing was going to the west now its back to the far east again? Gosh that's like 500mile+ difference in half a day.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-24, 9:43 pm

skillsweather wrote:Were is all the lines going west of us at? I thought the thing was going to the west now its back to the far east again? Gosh that's like 500mile+ difference in half a day.

Lol..forecasters have had a rough time with this one affraid

Models should be getting closer to a concensus now though. The low level circulation and trough has been sampled by the models pretty well at this point.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-24, 10:58 pm

Please God let the GFS be right.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-25, 12:46 am

Hope that white line is the line it takes but moves a little east. I was so happy earlier thinking we was going to all get a good rain now idk we will just have to wait a day or 2 to see what becomes the final solution.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by WxFreak on 2012-08-25, 8:25 am

From MRX long term AFD:

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE BIG WILDCARD IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ISSAC AND WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL TRACK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE DROUGHT STRICKEN LOWER-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER-MISSOURI VALLEYS...WHILE THE GFS NUDGES THE STORM NORTH AND EAST THROUGH ALABAMA AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY IF THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS DOWN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER FORECAST FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHOULD AN EASTERLY TRACK VERIFY...THE REGION COULD SEE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS OVER A 24-48 HOUR PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE TRUE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OUT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND CAN FOCUS SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PRESENT. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE IN ALTERING POPS A WHOLE LOT IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE POPS TO SOLID CHANCE AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT NEXT WEEK...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES /40-50 PERCENT/ FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-25, 10:57 am

Good Morning

Isaac has survived his bout with a mountainous landfall last night and has re-emerged between the islands of Cuba and Hispaniola. Cuba no longer looks to have much of an influence on the core of this system but it will have influences on convection trends.

I dont look for much strenthening until the circulation reaches the Florida straights sometime sunday. There..is where it could go on a steady intensification phase.

Here is one models idea of what Isaac will look like on satellite when it gets deeper into the gulf of Mexico Tuesday!


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-25, 1:33 pm

The 12z gfs is or is close to a major hurricane. Up until now..the GFS has been rather meager with intensity for the most part. This certainly should open some eyes to the possibility of a very strong tropical cyclone landfall on the gulf coast.

A zoomed in look

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-25, 4:09 pm

Here is your center of circulation just now starting to re-emerge back over water..should be fully over water in time for dmax tonight


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-25, 6:57 pm

Toot wrote:The 12z gfs is or is close to a major hurricane. Up until now..the GFS has been rather meager with intensity for the most part. This certainly should open some eyes to the possibility of a very strong tropical cyclone landfall on the gulf coast.

A zoomed in look

Damn Toot That would be a devastating landfall for Mobile Bay affraid
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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-25, 7:11 pm

Last night the GFS looked good for West Tn. This morning it had moved east. Now it and a lot of the Ensembles are showing a center punch for Dyersburg. Fingers crossed.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-25, 7:41 pm

if the 18z gfs verifies, most of west tn would be in line for severe with tornadic activity, escpecially with the stronger bands circulating to the right of the center

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-25, 7:43 pm

Welp..the 18zHWRF is in and its one of those RUN BITCH RUN situations..lmao yikes





944Mb wow

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-25, 9:59 pm

Like the new Isaac satellite. But yea recent model's I have heard are making this stronger and stronger. Looks like most of Tennessee will get a good rain from this too.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-25, 11:00 pm

Me likey !!! rock on


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-25, 11:31 pm

Tropical Storm Isaac is back out over open water and is intensifying tonight just north of Eastern Cuba. His winds are 60MPH with a pressure of 996Mb.

Isaac is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow as he pulls into the Florida straights/Keys area. All interests in that area should be prepared for significant impacts as Isaac is a very large cyclone.

Guidance continues to suggest a strong-major Hurricane will form in the gulf of mexico as upper level enviroment will become more than favorable and there will be plenty of fuel for the fire in the warm waters of the gulf.

Interests from New Orleans, LA to Applachicola, FL will need to watch Isaac closely tomorrow as there are still some inconsistencies between some guidance models as to the track of this system.


There is a good possibility of a VERY intense hurricane landfall near the central gulf coast. Stay tuned!!





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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-26, 12:08 am

If it does that turn from west of us then we are really going to get alot of rain as it wont really leave us for awhile... (the red line GFS)

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 1:33 am



LMFAO!!

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-26, 1:52 am

That's so racist rofl. Anyways you guys might not believe me but idc I just have to say this. I was in the 9th grade and Katrina was expected to hit somewere but not were it hit and it wasn't going to be strong either. But I showed my teacher were it was going to hit (I was hoping(cause of the rains for here) (yea I know it was stupid now obviously)) and it was basically were it hit and I was like it was going to be a super strong hurricane and that the meteorologist was just playing it safe and that the storm would come up and hit us and give us alot of rain and stuff. I was right (ofc at that time I was the boy who called wolf at everything (and still am sorta lol)) But yea I nailed that one idc what no one says. Yes the 10 storms before that I said same thing but I still got that one right and that was the big one. But Yea I know thats not really nothing to brag on because of what it ended up doing but I was only a kid so I didn't fully understand (I guess?) the consequences of the hurricane. But that is the only storm I actually got right fully (but was just luck I didn't actually track it or nothing). But yea just needed to say this somewhere had to get it out sorry. /off topic

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 1:57 am

skillsweather wrote:That's so racist rofl

Not racist..I just like the ladies facial expression. It could have easily been a white lady...lol

Ive been using that image for well over a year now from everything to blizzards to hail and sleet storms..lol Now I have used it for a hurricane lapat

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 2:28 am

0zEURO


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

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