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Hurricane Isaac

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by jmundie on 2012-08-26, 7:44 am

Toot wrote:
skillsweather wrote:That's so racist rofl

Not racist..I just like the ladies facial expression. It could have easily been a white lady...lol

Ive been using that image for well over a year now from everything to blizzards to hail and sleet storms..lol Now I have used it for a hurricane lapat

It's been racist every time you used it.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 11:58 am

jmundie wrote:
It's been racist every time you used it.

facepalm What the hell ever!! I havent intended any racism while using that image. NONE! Its a good meme because of the facial expression..nothing more. I cant help it if you're so insecure you cant look at an old image of a black lady without thinking somebody is racist. If you think that meme is racist then im sure you would have a problem with this smiley also afro

Im reminded of an animated gif


Get a grip!!



Meanwhile..Isaac is starting to really wind up. Gonna be a fun one to track pals


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 3:43 pm

Blog time

Tropical storm Isaac continues his intensification near the Florida keys this afternoon. He is expected to become a dangerous hurricane over the next couple of days. His satellite presentation continues to become better organized and he could become a hurricane now at anytime!

It is my opinion that the ecmwf model now has the best hold on this ever changing situation. I expect a very intense landfall along the MS/AL border area of the gulf coast. The euro has become very consistent with this system and im not expecting much deviation from its current track with this system.

I am still expecting the trough to wisk this storm off and away to the northeast after it has finished doing its dirty work along the gulf coast and inland areas of the southeastern united states but the exact details of what happens after landfall has not fully been worked out yet.

Stay Tuned!!



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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 3:54 pm

Oh yeah..here is frankies update on Isaac..lol hurry


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-26, 5:17 pm

All the models are basically saying west Tennessee is only area that will get rain from this now. I hope there wrong but they keep going more and more west. West Tennessee will be the only area that gets any rain (well good rains) we still might get rain but probably less then an inch.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 6:07 pm

Nice shot of Isaac as the sun starts to set. His inflow in the SW quadrant is still being affected by the dry air/terrain of Cuba.. but other than that he is already a fierce looking storm in the early stages of organization.. but that will surely change!


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-26, 7:58 pm

Another stunning image of TS Isaac as the sun goes down. Huge system that is organizing beautifully tonight.


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-08-27, 9:54 am

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:
skillsweather wrote:That's so racist rofl

Not racist..I just like the ladies facial expression. It could have easily been a white lady...lol

Ive been using that image for well over a year now from everything to blizzards to hail and sleet storms..lol Now I have used it for a hurricane lapat

It's been racist every time you used it.

I'm pretty sensitive to racism and that image has never set off any alarms for me. Especially considering the context and considering the variety of stuff posted here and around the internet. Are we racist to post funny pictures of the stoned white guy? What about the Asian kid eating a cat? What about the Asian father "you no asian, you b-sian"? Sometimes we just have to lighten up and have a chuckle.

There's poking fun at stereotypes and then there's racism. "Oh lawd" might be flirting with the line but I wouldn't think anybody who has been on these forums or the internet for more than a week would consider that crossing it. If we need to discuss this further, we will do it in a member thread as this isn't the place.

Carry on.
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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by jmundie on 2012-08-27, 10:05 am

Using people's Internet taste as a barometer for what is socially acceptable is probably unwise.

That being said - yes there is much about Internet humor which you probably couldn't get away with in the real world. But for toot not to recognize the inherent racism in what he's posting, the stereotypical black mamie, with the exxagerated expressions and "jive talk" speaks volumes. Its just one step away from posting a picture or gig of an old Irish blackface routine.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-08-27, 10:17 am

jmundie wrote:Using people's Internet taste as a barometer for what is socially acceptable is probably unwise.

That being said - yes there is much about Internet humor which you probably couldn't get away with in the real world. But for toot not to recognize the inherent racism in what he's posting, the stereotypical black mamie, with the exxagerated expressions and "jive talk" speaks volumes. Its just one step away from posting a picture or gig of an old Irish blackface routine.

Remember back, one post ago, when I said this isn't the thread to discuss this? Yeah, this isn't the thread to discuss this. This is a thread about a hurricane.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by secleveland on 2012-08-27, 11:45 am

Looks like the Hurricanes getting cranked up. I have family in mobile and the local stations keep saying its gone come in as a Category 1. by my start time looking at saying category 2. what do you guys think

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by secleveland on 2012-08-27, 12:04 pm


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-27, 3:08 pm

Am I missing something or is someone at MEG smoking crack ?

FXUS64 KMEG 271741
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1009 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012/

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES FOR TODAY... HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER. NORTHEAST MS TEMPS RECEIVED A BUMP FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING CUMULUS FORMATION RELATIVE TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

BEYOND TODAY... HAVE LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST AR...
THE BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN WITH THE APPROACH OF ISAAC. DRIER
AIR FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY ADVECT IN UNDER THE SUBSIDENT
REGION AROUND ISAAC. HAVE ALSO BUMPED WIND SPEEDS A BIT. FIRE
WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

LATEST NHC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF ISAAC WILL PASS OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAST TWO GFS RUNS SHOW LESS THAN A HALF
INCH OF EVENT LONG RAINFALL FOR THE MEMPHIS AREA. ECMWF IS A
LITTLE WETTER...AT 1.75 INCHES.

Here is the latest precip map

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by jmundie on 2012-08-27, 3:23 pm

MEG isn't buying the HPC forecast apparently.

This thing is not going to little rock. The ridge won't let it. It's wobbling right up the Mississippi river.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-27, 5:59 pm

I cant believe they're still calling this a tropical storm lapat

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-27, 6:01 pm

jmundie wrote:MEG isn't buying the HPC forecast apparently.

This thing is not going to little rock. The ridge won't let it. It's wobbling right up the Mississippi river.
meg has updated their afd now, they are going with 3 to 5 inches now

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-27, 6:11 pm

I was about to say..MEG is not looking at satellite.. at how big this system is..it's gonna have a huge precip shield!


IMO middle TN will also get alot of beneficial rain but west TN looks like the big winner in this one using guidance. Synoptics though.. is really tough to figure out on this one. The situation is very sensitive in regards to timing!!

The 12zGFS took the remnants of Isaac up the southern MS valley into the OH valley and then right back down into the TN valley pals

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by skillsweather on 2012-08-27, 6:42 pm

Were is the front at it looks like its over tennessee atm but im sure that ahead of it but were is the actual front or whatever that is going to be blocking the storm from going west. I really think now since the models are all starting to have this turn more and more sooner that like you said toot Middle Tennessee will still get a good rain but ofc west will get more. Liking the looks of things now alot better then last night thats for sure.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-27, 6:50 pm

HPC updated also.


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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-27, 7:16 pm

skillsweather wrote:Were is the front at it looks like its over tennessee atm but im sure that ahead of it but were is the actual front or whatever that is going to be blocking the storm from going west.


Fronts dont block tropical systems..high pressure systems do that. Fronts usually pick up tropical systems and our front has just now entered west tn from the NW.

The thing blocking this system from continuing NW is a huge anticyclone (high pressure system) centered out west. How strong a particular high pressure system is determines how close a cyclone can get to it.

Notice Isaac is trapped between two subtropical ridges of high pressure..this is called a weakness.



Isaac is starting to show some extratropical traits this evening that is allowing drier air to penetrate the system. This will probably mean that he will never be able to catch his winds up to match the pressure of the storm.

He will also continue to focus his winds and precip over a wider area because of this and he wont be able to consolidate enough to become intense. This is still a dangerous storm that shouldnt be taken lightly...but IMO a major hurricane doesnt look to be a threat anymore.

Certainly an interesting storm that Isaac is!

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-27, 9:24 pm

i am still hoping out for some good rains here in west tn, sure could use it... but also still think the severe threat is still there if the nhc track holds for parts of th midsouth... center still looks to be going through eastern arknasas ... that puts us in west tn and even parts of middle tenn. will need to watch the tornado threat... it will be coming into some juicy air to begin with... no matter how weak isaac comes on shore... it will still be in spinning motion when it comes through this part of the country... so there will be your shear right there.... keep eye on the right front quadrant were the more intense bands can form, these can will often produce some spinups... and some of them can produce some significant damage... 1978 hurricane debra produce an tornado that traveled a little over 2 miles and done sme sigificant damage in memphis... i believe the center crossed over far western arkansas... i see some signs of this thing also slowing down once it becomes on land, that will enhance the heavy rainfall totals.

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-08-27, 9:42 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i am still hoping out for some good rains here in west tn, sure could use it... but also still think the severe threat is still there if the nhc track holds for parts of th midsouth... center still looks to be going through eastern arknasas ... that puts us in west tn and even parts of middle tenn. will need to watch the tornado threat... it will be coming into some juicy air to begin with... no matter how weak isaac comes on shore... it will still be in spinning motion when it comes through this part of the country... so there will be your shear right there.... keep eye on the right front quadrant were the more intense bands can form, these can will often produce some spinups... and some of them can produce some significant damage... 1978 hurricane debra produce an tornado that traveled a little over 2 miles and done sme sigificant damage in memphis... i believe the center crossed over far western arkansas... i see some signs of this thing also slowing down once it becomes on land, that will enhance the heavy rainfall totals.

I agree. Dr Forbes already has North Mississippi at a Torcon of 4.
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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by Toot on 2012-08-27, 10:03 pm

Alot of people will wonder why Isaac's winds never responded much to the pressure drops and why he never could become well organized. IMO the main reason will be this storm started taking on extratropical characteristics as it got further north into the GOM.

Ive seen this before several times due to frontal structure forming a dry slot between the core of the low and the convection along the easternmost part of the storm which is now somewhat linear frontal structure. This will give an organized hybrid storm and endless supply of dry air..because the dry slot is the inflow to the core of the system!

Now im not saying its completely subtropical but it definately doesnt have the characteristics of a fully tropical system! I'll just call it a hybrid and shut up about it beer

That said..this is still a dangerous storm and it shouldnt be taken lightly..but the strong hurricane threat is now almost nil IMO!

Isaac


For comparison..Subtropical storm Beryl

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-08-27, 10:11 pm

i got still every reason too believe this thing intensifies into a cat one at least and not out of the question of a low end cat 2 cane...recon plan just got back wiith some encouraging reports of this thingfixing to get a bit stronger

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

Post by jmundie on 2012-08-27, 11:02 pm

The nam hi res doesn't seem
To think its extra tropical...

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Re: Hurricane Isaac

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