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October Severe Wx possibilities

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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-06, 10:03 am

i am still very intrigued about the mid month period...cmc is hinting at my ohio valley screamer... i like the look of the pacific ridge wanting to shif further south some... this pattern still looks like to me its fixing to get more progressive as we head into the heart of october... details r sketchy at best right now, since we still ways out... but i like the direction we are heading for a fairly significant severe event in our neck of the woods... i am sure andy will start to harp on this also, he does a outstanding job on severe. intersting times ahead folks

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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-06, 1:12 pm

read on another forum, big storm chasers r already talking about the system around the 14th. effecting the plains into parts of the ohio valley... parts of the midsouth could be included... going to be interesting keeping up with this system.... spc starting to take note also, in their 4 to 8 day text. i said all along this time frame has had my attention for sometime now.

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Post by andyhb 2012-10-06, 3:50 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i am still very intrigued about the mid month period...cmc is hinting at my ohio valley screamer... i like the look of the pacific ridge wanting to shif further south some... this pattern still looks like to me its fixing to get more progressive as we head into the heart of october... details r sketchy at best right now, since we still ways out... but i like the direction we are heading for a fairly significant severe event in our neck of the woods... i am sure andy will start to harp on this also, he does a outstanding job on severe. intersting times ahead folks
Far too early to be discussing stuff like this. In addition, the models are going to have problems with this upcoming s/w, since ejecting close lows are one of the things they have the most difficulty in forecasting.
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Post by Toot 2012-10-06, 5:27 pm

12z Europa

October Severe Wx possibilities 27zjer8

October Severe Wx possibilities Panic
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Post by Toot 2012-10-06, 9:29 pm

This is certainly getting interesting

18zGFS
October Severe Wx possibilities 2012100618_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_192
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-07, 1:20 am

and the 0z gfs and cmc continue to show a severe threat... cmc is a little more south to include parts of the midsouth region... the ozgfs tonite is even more progressvie with a negative titled trough over the midwest

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Post by Toot 2012-10-07, 5:01 pm

Yeah..this one is worth watching popcorn

October Severe Wx possibilities 522364_314571135317312_127180372_n
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-07, 9:40 pm

system this weekend still looks interesting... cape looks decent as temps and dew points recover as the week rolls along, though shear does stay north of here near slp... look for a nice linear situation with scattered storms n some possible severe... but still like the looks in longer range for severe... as models hint at a second system later with plenty low level moisture to work with along better shear... it looks like the second half of october will be much warmer n stormier overall.

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Post by andyhb 2012-10-08, 3:10 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:system this weekend still looks interesting... cape looks decent as temps and dew points recover as the week rolls along, though shear does stay north of here near slp... look for a nice linear situation with scattered storms n some possible severe... but still like the looks in longer range for severe... as models hint at a second system later with plenty low level moisture to work with along better shear... it looks like the second half of october will be much warmer n stormier overall.
Not really seeing it. Besides, this will change 50 times before it becomes more realistic, plenty of time between now and then.
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Post by Toot 2012-10-08, 8:11 am

A severe weather outbreak has become a concern for this coming weekend in parts of the central plains/Midwest/ OH valley regions. Guidance suggests a screaming LLJ at 850mb with impressive amounts of shear upwards. Now im wondering how far east this threat could come. 0Z Euro is further north than the GFS but the GFS seems to have handled similar situations a little better than the euro. Probably change quite a bit between now and then though.
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-08, 10:26 am

Toot wrote:A severe weather outbreak has become a concern for this coming weekend in parts of the central plains/Midwest/ OH valley regions. Guidance suggests a screaming LLJ at 850mb with impressive amounts of shear upwards. Now im wondering how far east this threat could come. 0Z Euro is further north than the GFS but the GFS seems to have handled similar situations a little better than the euro. Probably change quite a bit between now and then though.
yeah noticed this mornings 6z gfs looking very ominous for ohio valley areas, could be a decent event... still like the pattern off the pacific coast... looks like a ridge will start to build some in the se. this will make temps n dew go up as time rolls along...

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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-08, 1:14 pm

12z gfs is gotten my attenition after this wk end... potent surface low forms along warm frontal boundry in the southern plains... the instability looks fairly decent for parts of the midsouth with lower 60s dps... but along the warm front and surface low which is called the triple point there coud be a tornado threat starting to unfold, especially along central missouri into southern illinois... this does bear watching... since were about still 186 hours or so out. changes will occur like andy eluded to earlier

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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-08, 3:00 pm

if the 12z euro comes true, the ohio valley needs to be alert... Shocked wind profiles show a tornado threat also

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Post by Adam2014 2012-10-08, 3:56 pm

I think Tennessee is out of the question if the models are correct, this low pressure system will be way to far north. Missouri and Illinois need to be on watch though.
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Post by andyhb 2012-10-08, 4:03 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I think Tennessee is out of the question if the models are correct, this low pressure system will be way to far north. Missouri and Illinois need to be on watch though.
This, although I think instability might be a bit hard to come by as it progresses further east, especially if the timing works out as progged now.
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Post by andyhb 2012-10-09, 1:52 am

Alright, NOW, I'd begin to watch towards the later ranges of the higher-res (up to 192 hrs) GFS, the 00z run has an impressive Pacific Jet streak coming ashore after the passage of this initial shortwave this weekend, into what looks to be a fairly favorable pattern to cut out a rather large trough across the central CONUS. This, combined with an enhanced moisture flow due to the initial shortwave and resultant movement of the EC high pressure creating a favorable trajectory for moisture out of the Gulf/Caribbean, would potentially support a more widespread severe weather event.
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Post by andyhb 2012-10-09, 8:23 pm

Case in point (still way far off though)...
October Severe Wx possibilities Gfs32012100918f192wspd5
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-09, 9:45 pm

andyhb wrote:Case in point (still way far off though)...
October Severe Wx possibilities Gfs32012100918f192wspd5
true, but it is within truncation period... i have my eye on it... nice rich deep gulf moisture return no doubt... maya be the best looking trough to produce severe for us i have seen in a while... thats for the midsouth area and tenn. valley i am speaking of.... lets see how models handle this as week rolls along.

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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-10-10, 5:53 am

starting to like a little better chance of some severe storms late sat. in to the night for west tenn... latest gfs n euro have the slp little further south... cape looking around 1500 with a 60 kt mid level jet will help some...

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Post by Toot 2012-10-10, 7:13 am

Goodness gracious...981Mb yikes

0Z GFS Second system valid Oct 18th
October Severe Wx possibilities 24bjm8m
October Severe Wx possibilities 1zj1qx

Synoptically that is huge in the OH valley...this system may need a dedicated thread before long!
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Post by andyhb 2012-10-10, 4:35 pm

Well the 12z GFS/GGEM/Ensembles continue the craziness in the mid range, although the Euro has yet to jump on board yet.
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Post by VFL 2012-10-10, 5:48 pm

popcorn
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Post by Toot 2012-10-11, 8:13 am

The weather pattern is gonna get really active over the next week or so. Two well organized low pressure systems will bring two severe weather outbreaks to the nation. The first one wont be much of a concern over eastern parts of the US as its threat of severe will be mainly focused on the midwest/central locations.

The second system is advertised to be much stronger (near 980Mb) with a better moisture return from the gulf of Mexico. This system is still about a week away.. but it looks to pose a much higher threat to the eastern half of the nation. There is nothing set in stone yet but it does look like a classic severe weather situation is unfolding for much of us!

October Severe Wx possibilities 183521_316055548502204_355995102_n
October Severe Wx possibilities 6rlmbt
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-10-11, 8:58 am

Wow, and I'm planning to be camping during that time frame next week.

yikes
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Post by Toot 2012-10-11, 7:01 pm

The trend today with the system in the extended has been slower and weaker. I think this is all due to guidance forming secondary low pressure on the tail end of the cold front. Takes on more of a negative tilt also! Still keeping an eye on it though.
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