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Fall Severe Weather Thread

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-04, 12:01 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:ole henry marguisity has a vid on this upcoming system... saying a possible nasty severe outbreak over the lower mid miss valley
Quoting Henry Margusity is usually hazardous for the health of credibility.

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PDS Tornado Watch 235 Probabilities (AL/MS/GA/TN on April 27th, 2011)
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-04, 12:13 am

andyhb wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:ole henry marguisity has a vid on this upcoming system... saying a possible nasty severe outbreak over the lower mid miss valley
Quoting Henry Margusity is usually hazardous for the health of credibility.
but he did nail the big outbreak in april 26 27th... when alot of folks were doubting him... but i see your point

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-04, 12:23 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:but he did nail the big outbreak in april 26 27th... when alot of folks were doubting him... but i see your point
Pretty much everybody could see a big event coming with that like 5-6 days away, and besides, calling for 200+ tornadoes like he did at that range is just plain irresponsible (sorta like how he said the pattern of 3/2 this year was similar to the 4/3/74 Super Outbreak, it generated a lot of unnecessary hype, so there were a few similarities in synoptic setup, but there also major differences, like the fact that it was a full month before April and thus thermodynamic expectations should not be as high in terms of instability and other factors like that). Sure, you're going to get a big event eventually when you call for something exceptional constantly, that's just the way the weather world works.

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PDS Tornado Watch 235 Probabilities (AL/MS/GA/TN on April 27th, 2011)
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-12-04, 12:46 am

andyhb wrote:
Quoting Henry Margusity is usually hazardous for the health of credibility.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-04, 1:54 am

Euro says look out Ozarks, Mid/Lower MS Valley, western parts of Dixie Alley. 50+ kt H85 wind max with an intense jet streak rounding the base of a negative tilted s/w and with a sub-1000 mb sfc low in the area, plus H85 temps well above 10º...that is a nasty, nasty run.

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PDS Tornado Watch 235 Probabilities (AL/MS/GA/TN on April 27th, 2011)
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-12-04, 6:58 am

Thanks Andy!! Please continue to keep us updated Everyone!! Thanks again.
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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-04, 8:24 am

yeah the 0z euro is a nightmare for parts of the midsouth to the ozarks... this morning 6zgfs has things more strung out less inpressive to me on that run... but its the 6z... we c what the 12z holds.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-04, 8:51 am

nws offices out of paducah kentucky(kpah) startiing to hint at a severe event already... they are very conservative vs meg which is saying something also about this strong system

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Eric on 2012-12-04, 10:43 am

andyhb wrote:Euro says look out Ozarks, Mid/Lower MS Valley, western parts of Dixie Alley. 50+ kt H85 wind max with an intense jet streak rounding the base of a negative tilted s/w and with a sub-1000 mb sfc low in the area, plus H85 temps well above 10º...that is a nasty, nasty run.

This. Just an absolutely beautiful run for the severe weather enthusiasts. Only concern would be the lack of instability (and this WILL be a low CAPE, high shear event given the current data)...will the insane upper level flow rip apart the updrafts since the instability numbers are so low? They will undoubtedly ebb and flow as we get closer to gametime. And this looks to be a nocturnal threat, too? *whistles* afro

The 6z GFSop/0z GFSe have both gone goofy as we enter their "we've gone blind" stage. There's no way that I can believe the same two suites that very nearly held serve with the Euro can be so drastically different this morning, but it is the ole GooFuS....

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-04, 11:05 am

this looks like a classic high shear low cape, typcial for late fall early winter events.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

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