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Wxeastern early Winter/fall Outlook

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Wxeastern early Winter/fall Outlook

Post by Toot on 2012-09-21, 5:53 pm

--Early Fall/Winter Outlook--

First of all I want to address some who are claiming there is no sign of El Nino right now. IMO El nino is more than just some ONI/SOI/SST values. El Nino is showing itself synoptically in the weather pattern in a big way across North America right now!!

There are several different guidance/teleconnection/Indice and Analog products that I have looked over very thoroughly to try and make my longer range outlooks more accurate and my interpretation of these products leads me to believe that October will be warmer than September. I am also starting to see signals that November will come in warmer than normal in the eastern US also! A couple of different seasonal models also suggest the same. This is a fall pattern typical of a -NAO summer going into Neutral/weak Nino fall/winter!

The NAO normally will become more neutral to positive the later we get into fall due to several factors such as the summer/winter NAO correlations. This could mean a spike in severe weather wx in the OH and TN Valleys and on eastward into the mid Atlantic later in the fall.

If that happens I think it will set the stage for a drop in temps/heights and drive NAO values into negative territory towards the end of December. The weak Nino thats trying to develop in a rather new negative regime of the PDO also argues for a negative NAO during winter. This leads me to think about buying into a very anomalously cold winter in the eastern united states especially in January and Febuary. The (09/10) (76/77) analogs dont look so crazy to me anymore.

Here are some anomalies I came up with using DJF ONI analogs with values from .4 to .7 which is borderline weak nino/neutral ONI values.


Dec




JAN



FEB




And here is the same months and years mixed in with the last negative phase of the PDO which gives you the winter 500Mb anomaly of my analogs.




Given the expected weak Nino..I expect December to start off warmer than normal... but by the time holiday season rolls around things will have changed due to the ONI value and the LRC. It is then that I expect the polar vortex to weaken and therefore strengthen the high latitude blocking. Keep in mind its stll very early and things can change quickly but at this point my confidence in this early outlook is about 70 percent!



This is just my preliminary outlook and the final one will be released no later than Nov 1st.



Last edited by Toot on 2012-09-26, 9:46 pm; edited 4 times in total

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Re: Wxeastern early Winter/fall Outlook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-21, 6:12 pm

Toot wrote:‎--Early Fall/Winter Outlook--

First of all I want to address the people who are claiming there is no El Nino right now. El nino is more than some ONI values and water temps. El Nino is showing itself in the synoptic weather pattern in a big way

There are several different guidance products that I use to determine long range forecasts and my interpretation of these products leads me to believe that October will be warmer than September. I am also starting to see signals that November will come in warmer than normal in the eastern US also! A couple of different seasonal models also suggest the same. This is all typical for a -NAO summer!

The NAO will likely become more positive the later we get into fall due to the summer winter -NAO correlation. This could mean an explosive late fall severe weather season in the OH and TN Valleys and on eastward into the mid Atlantic.

Now with that said...this will set the stage for a massive drop in temps into negative territory with the NAO/AO towards the end of December and with the weak Nino developing along with the negative phase of the PDO in its infancy.. im starting to buy into a very anomalously cold winter in the eastern united states especially in January and Febuary. (09/10) (76/77)

I expect December to start off warmer than normal... but by the time holiday season rolls around things will have changed due to the ONI value and the LRC. It is then that I expect the polar vortex to weaken and therefore strengthen the high latitude blocking. Keep in mind its stll very early and things can change quickly but at this point this my confidence in this early outlook is about 70 percent!

If you would like a list of the analog years I used feel free to ask:)

Have a nice evening my fellow wx nerds Smile This is just my preliminary outlook and the final one will be released no later than Nov 1st.

Toot



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