WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-10-10, 6:03 pm

Arctic Oscillation



North Atlantic Oscillation


PSD/NCEP comparison


Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA)


Eastern and Western Pacific Oscillation


MJO forecast


MJO winter legend


Last edited by Toot on 2013-10-12, 8:00 pm; edited 6 times in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-10, 9:52 pm

EDIT:I inserted my original post quote in your post stove. That way I could pin all the updating stuff in the first post of the thread..sorry!

Toot wrote:
There is some interesting things going on with the progged values of local Oscillations and other threads are starting to become cluttered with things that should be seperated. So.. I figured I would go ahead and get a cold season indice thread going!

If the the GFS and its Ensembles are correct the AO and NAO are fixing to tank into negative territory. IMO this is good signal for a cold December/January...but this signal is not a sure thing by any means. There have been warm winters with decently negative AO/NAO values in October but not as many as there is cold.

Anyways..here are a few graphics

Arctic Oscillation

6 run CMC AO mean


GFS Ensembles (Hotlinked..will update)


North Atlantic Oscillation

12z OP GFS


Ensembles (Hotlinked..will update)


Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA)

12z Globals


Ensembles


Eastern Pacific Oscillation

Ensembles


Globals


All the ensemble images should update and now they are all in one place to analyze wash



Good idea making a new thread. We barely even saw our little friend last season, much less say hello.

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-11, 9:50 am

Great job Toot. A one stop shop. Could you possibly add the MJO?

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 39
Location : Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-10-11, 11:42 am

Lol....do I sense some sarcasm snowdog?


Last edited by Toot on 2012-10-11, 5:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-11, 3:13 pm

No, I was being serious on both. You don't like the MJO?

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 39
Location : Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-10-11, 4:35 pm

snowdog wrote:No, I was being serious on both. You don't like the MJO?

Ok thanks then..I thought you was being sarcastic due to the big debate I got into over at the other forum. Razz

Here is a little writeup I did on the MJO involving winter wx.

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t412-mjo-impact-on-winter#15583

The MJO is useful for most seasons...but not much for winter in my opinion.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-10-11, 5:58 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Good idea making a new thread. We barely even saw our little friend last season, much less say hello.


Lol..the whole scarface thing was definately a bad call on my part last winter! yikes

I was using Ryan Maue's NAO index at the time..I wasnt aware that his way of measuring the NAO was different than the CPC's. It will be interesting to see if his graphic stays in line with the CPC's this year. I cant hotlink it because its paid graphics now.. but here is a current screenshot of his compared to the CPC's




At one point his graphic showed decently negative last winter and the CPC's showed more of a positive side of neutral wacko

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-10-11, 8:13 pm

For those that want to follow the MJO this winter.. here is the forecast that should update



And here is what each phase SHOULD mean in terms of temps.. along side of how much significance each phase SHOULD mean for a certain area...lol



When you see one of these phases verify cold in the east..take a look out west and see if there isnt a PNA/EPO ridge dumping cold into into the eastern US...in my experience alot of times there is. I find it much easier to look at local oscillations to determine wx patterns.

I will pin all the updating indices up at the very top of this thread for future reference.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-10-12, 9:07 am

Just happen to run across this awesome website that has a wealth of information regarding local Oscillations.

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php


On a daily timescale, it appears that trends in the NAO can be used to detect enhanced potential for winter weather in NC. When the NAO has been in a negative phase (allowing cold air to become entrenched across the region), and then begins to increase towards a neutral phase, it appears that significant NC snowfalls become more likely.

Similarly, Kocin and Uccellini (2004) found that Mid-Atlantic snowfalls are common during a "receding NAO" (transition from negative to neutral NAO phase).

The above is also true for Tennessee..This is a great signal that I have used for a few years now to pinpoint when snowstorms are more likely in our neck of the woods!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-12, 9:49 am

Toot wrote:When you see one of these phases verify cold in the east..take a look out west and see if there isnt a PNA/EPO ridge dumping cold into into the eastern US...in my experience alot of times there is. I find it much easier to look at local oscillations to determine wx patterns.

The MJO isn't the end all be all but it can be a useful tool at times. Luckily for us, it's most significant for our area when it leads to colder weather (Phase 1 to 2 and somewhat with Phase 8 ).

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 39
Location : Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-10-19, 5:27 pm

The NAO is progged to stay solidly in the negative phase while the EPO is gradually progged to go negative also. My warm November could be in trouble silent

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-02, 7:14 pm

Let me say right up front here that when I started mentioning the October to winter AO correlation about 3 weeks ago it was totally from my own independant research and nobody elses. There may very well have been others (Probably have been) that have noticed this correlation in the past but im not aware of any documentation of this correlation on any website until now!

Meteorologist Alan Huffman is now touting my idea of the October Arctic Oscillation value over at American and its importance on winter AO value. Im not trying to toot my own horn or anything.. but I spent hours and hours and hours researching this aspect and its possible implications on winter weather and now he is using it in his winter outlook. I can link several posts on several different weather forums of me mentioning this many days ago! Im not angry or anything..im just putting this out there because alot of people think weather forums other than American are made up of only weenies and are inferior to the American weather forum! Im also not trying to take away from Alan Huffman because I think he is a great forecaster and has much more knowledge than myself in the field of meteorolgy! Im not at all saying he stole any research from anyone..im just saying welcome to three weeks ago!

Ok... enough about who thought of it first..here is some more data that goes one step further. Im not exactly sure what value the AO will average out to for the month of October but it will likely be THE record negative value for the month of October going back to 1950! Just a quick estimation.. it looks to be between -1.50 and -2.00!

Going back to 1950 there are only two years in terms of October AO value that will even think about coming close to this October's! Thats October 2002 (-1.48AO) and October 2009 (-1.54AO)

Here is the composite temps averaged out for those two winters


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-11-02, 9:01 pm

Toot wrote:Im not trying to toot my own horn or anything..

This gave me a chuckle, sorry. I'm with you though. Good work brother!
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-07, 7:48 pm

Well..its official..the October Arctic Oscillation averaged out -1.514 that's not a record.. but damn it was close!!

October 2009 still holds the record at -1.540

November 2009 averaged out +0.459 then the December value tanked to an awesome -3.413

I expect something quite similar this year! The winter of 2009/10 has turned out to be quite the analog for this winter! I dont have much doubt that fun times lay ahead the next few months!!

cold

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-07, 11:26 pm

Here is the October AO correlation broken down in three different increments

The following met winter average anomaly temps from all October AO values since 1950 that averaged out to at least -0.5 ...The mean December AO value from these is -0.343

The October input years are 1960 1966 1968 1974 1976 1979 1980 1981 1993 1997 2002 2003 2004 2006 2009




Average anomaly winter temps with a previous October AO value of at least -1.00



And since this October went -1.51 here is the average anomaly winter temps from the only two years that had October AO values of at least -1.40




I find it very hard to argue against a cooler than normal winter in the eastern US!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-11-08, 10:18 am

You might draw Don Sutherland out of the wood work in that American thread Toot. Keep at it, lol.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-08, 6:13 pm

Stovepipe wrote:You might draw Don Sutherland out of the wood work in that American thread Toot. Keep at it, lol.

I was just correcting some misinformation! 70mb graphics reveal nothing of the such and there is NO other data to support any major stratospheric cooling event in the near future. I normally dont post much over there but it seems I helped bring some balance to that particular thread lol Razz



_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-11-08, 6:50 pm

Toot wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:You might draw Don Sutherland out of the wood work in that American thread Toot. Keep at it, lol.

I was just correcting some misinformation! 70mb graphics reveal nothing of the such and there is NO other data to support any major stratospheric cooling event in the near future. I normally dont post much over there but it seems I helped bring some balance to that particular thread lol Razz



I agree, which means you will be banned within two weeks lol.

Kidding, maybe.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-08, 8:47 pm

For those interested here is how the AO behaved in 2009



Here is the latest GFS ensemble forecast

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-10, 9:08 am

In addition to the GFS ensembles prediction of the AO/NAO heading into neg territory we now have the Euro predicting a positive PNA towards thanksgiving




_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-13, 9:20 am

The AO now looks to TANK back into neg territory...per the ensembles. Cant say im surprised at this as I have been expecting this to happen. The NAO should follow suit..Im expecting a very quick start to winter in TN over the next couple of weeks!



Caznt wait for that first Big Dog!!! WOOF WOOF!!!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-13, 1:03 pm

A quick look at the NAO on the left of this page, as of the most recent update today, has all of the spaghetti plots in negative range looks like it won't stay positive for long pals

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 10:28 pm

If you dont think its about to get brutally cold. Ive got some ocean front property in in the Smoky mountains I will sell you for cheap!!


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-19, 11:46 am

Lol at the latest Nao plots just updated. One member drops off like a cliff almost instantly, the others level off, and near the edge, several spike through the roof. To say it's having problems would be an understatement. yikes maybe we can get this sorted out soon

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Toot on 2012-11-19, 12:05 pm

Jed33 wrote:Lol at the latest Nao plots just updated. One member drops off like a cliff almost instantly, the others level off, and near the edge, several spike through the roof. To say it's having problems would be an understatement. yikes maybe we can get this sorted out soon

When you cant make any sense of ensemble guidance for the NAO index its always helpful to look at the Ensemble guidance for the AO as the NAO generally follows the Arctic Oscillation's lead

The AO has been consistently falling and has been modeled consistently to keep falling for a while now!!


cold


"Roughly speaking" 90% of the time the NAO will follow

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Teleconnections/Oscillations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum