WXeasterns OAOIC - (Oct Artcic Oscillation index correlation)

by **Toot** 2013-08-04, 1:05 am

WXeasterns own research has found an October to Winter Arctic Oscillation correlation that we are calling the OAOIC (October Arctic Oscillation index Correlation)

It should be noted that this is only a strong correlation when the October AO value is DEEPLY pos or Neg. If the Oct AO value is not deeply neg or positive there isnt as much correlation. WXeastern found 11 winters where the October AO values were strongly positive or negative. 7 of those correlated really well to the following winter..which means this is a strong correlation over 64% effective!! If the October Arctic Oscillation value is deeply valued pos or neg the rest of the winter will generally follow that particular phase of the AO that occured during the month of October!

These AO values are taken from the climate prediction centers Arctic oscillation index and each value will begin with the month of Oct and end with the month of Feb from left to right. If the AO is perdominantly negative during winter it will generally represent a negative NAO and a cold winter in the eastern US.

If The AO is perdominantly positive it will generally represent a positive NAO which usually means a warm winter for the eastern US. So all you winter weather lovers out there need to be rooting for a massively negative Arctic Oscillation value this coming October to recieve your cold and snowy winter!

Below is the proof of WXeasterns own research and correlation

Winter OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
1960-61 -1.187 -0.553 -0.343 -1.506 -0.621 Oct was deeply neg and the winter averaged out neg

1968-69 -1.013 -2.183 -0.783 -2.967 -3.114 Oct was deeply neg and so was th rest of winter

1981-82 -1.167 -0.188 -1.216 -0.883 0.974 Oct was deeply neg and the rest of the winter averaged out neg

2002-03 -1.489 -1.425 -1.592 -0.472 0.128 Oct was deeply - and the rest of that winter averaged out neg

2008-09 1.676 0.092 0.648 0.800 -0.672 Oct was deeply positive and the winter averaged out positive

2009-10 -1.540 0.459 -3.413 -2.587 -4.266 Oct was deeply neg and so was the rest of winter

2012-13 -1.514 -0.111 -1.749 -0.610 -1.007 Oct was deeply neg and the rest of the winter averaged out neg

WXeasterns OAOIC - (Oct Artcic Oscillation index correlation) 1146677_456224487818642_1195254651_n

WXeasterns OAOIC - (Oct Artcic Oscillation index correlation) 1146677_456224487818642_1195254651_n

by **windstorm** 2013-08-06, 1:40 pm

So are we talking a repeat of winter 2012/13. ???"? If so, not good for my area. Lot of clipper systems do good up where some of you live. Unless we can get clipper systems to swing a little farther south and a bit stronger it will not do much good for this area where i am. A day or two of cold then a quick turn around. I know it all way to early but fall is not far away. Of course winter is still a ways out there. By watch October/November and see how they play out. It will give a much better ideal of this coming winter. Let's hope it is a good one for all of us across Tenn.

by **Toot** 2013-08-06, 4:56 pm

windstorm wrote:So are we talking a repeat of winter 2012/13. ???"?

No not at all...the QBO was negative that particular cold season and we were in a major drought which this cold season we will be in a positive QBO regime with a surplus of precip..so right off the bat the weather paterrns could be completely opposite of 2012/13

windstorm wrote:Of course winter is still a ways out there. we will watch October/November and see how they play out. It will give a much better ideal of this coming winter.

yep the October AO value will likely tell the story for this coming winter as I explained above windstorm. Have a good evening buddy

by **windstorm** 2013-08-10, 2:09 pm

I think one big factor for this winter will be what the NAO does in October. This should give us a big hint of what this coming winter will be like. But remember this is not the only factor that play into forecasting this up coming winter or anyother winter forecast. Just my one cents worth. Use to be 2 cent worth but dollar value has drop.

by **etnwx** 2013-08-10, 5:38 pm

In a nutshell: Mild and wet.

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=41901&Itemid=179

by **etnwx** 2013-08-10, 5:52 pm

In a nutshell: slightly colder than average and above average snow.

http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-08-10, 5:59 pm

I'am thinking long winter mixed bag! Early start to fall and winter.. If gfs is right in Canada about 2 weeks from now they may have snow that is way early! Anyway that's my 2 cents. Dollar value went up. beer

by **Toot** 2013-08-10, 7:59 pm

windstorm wrote:I think one big factor for this winter will be what the NAO does in October. This should give us a big hint of what this coming winter will be like. But remember this is not the only factor that play into forecasting this up coming winter or anyother winter forecast. Just my one cents worth. Use to be 2 cent worth but dollar value has drop.

Haha..you got that right...I just rented a new log cabin and couldnt believe what I hade to pay for it...due to the drop in US dollar value! Anyways windstorm..We currently have several anomalous factors already in play that could make for quite the up and down in winter temperature/pattern extremes. First of all the +QBO this winter is pretty much a given statistcally and climatologically speakiing. It just turned positive and on average it remains that way for around 10 straight months and this +QBO will statistically argue for a +AO/+NAO winter!

However.. I think there is great potential for many long lasting and anomalous strong ridges and deep troughs in the longwave weather pattern across the CONUS. This is mainly due to the near record strength drought out in the western U.S this summer! If this pattern continues this winter it will favor strong ridging in the west which in turn could make for some very deep troughs in the eas!.

With the NAO/AO being perdominately neutral to positive (No high lat blocking this summer) in theory should have caused alot of zonal flow across the North American longwave weather pattern. However..the intense drought out west has encouraged higher pressures/upper level ridges much more so than normal! This has and is continuing to cause a very amplified mid latitude jet stream pattern. If this continues into the late fall/winter it could possibly be one of the very few winters where any +NAO that develops could have little to no effect on the winter weather pattern here in the eastern US!

When WXeastern analyze's the October AO data and its trends due to WXeastern's own OAOIC© (October Arctic Oscillation index Correlation) if its negative then a very cold winter in the eastern US could certainly be possible. This means that WXeastern will pretty much know (Statistically speaking) if a possibly frigid winter is in store come mid October despite the +QBO!
WXeasterns OAOIC - (Oct Artcic Oscillation index correlation) 944796_459755580798866_316978704_n

WXeasterns OAOIC - (Oct Artcic Oscillation index correlation) 944796_459755580798866_316978704_n

by **windstorm** 2013-08-11, 8:30 am

I have seen some other jumping on a cold winter in the East. Also seen some jumping off. But no matter. I remember growing up and a few times having a wet summer, which lead to a warm winter. Not saying this is going to happen but back then i didn't have weather at hand 24/7 and all the things we can look at today. It was hard to get a book back then to read about weather. If you did it was printed back in the 40's or early 50's . In case u want to know am 60 years old. Am hoping for a great winter. Hoping that we set up a west base EL Nino and -NAO and a - AO. Thanks Toot. I just hope this is a great winter for all in Tenn. Have a good day everyone.P.S. And a White Christmas. That will be another thread coming much later. popcorn

by **Toot** 2013-08-11, 5:55 pm

Definately a tough call right now with analogs suggesting warm warm warm but if current pattern holds and repeats itself thru winter it will be cold cold cold!!

by **windstorm** 2013-08-13, 2:21 pm

The 2014 Weather Outlook

What's in store—weatherwise—for the coming year?

We've officially released our long-range weather predictions in the new 2014 Old Farmer’s Almanac and, as is our tradition, we offer a sneak peek at the winter forecast for you, our Companion readers!

• In most of the United States, this winter is shaping up to be a rough one. We forecast below-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall during most of the winter.

Brrrrr! Sweaters and snow shovels should be unpacked early in much of the country. The good news is that the extra precipitation—which will fall as rain or snow depending where you are—will help with any drought issues from the summer. This is for those who follow the Old Farmer’s Almanac...

by **snowtaco** 2013-08-15, 11:42 pm

I’m hoping and praying the current pattern holds, and it’s cold cold cold and snowy snowy snowy.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-08-20, 7:22 pm

Looking at the seasonal forecast model from nasa. It shows a fast start to winter. Coming in November and even colder in dec. but this is just one model many more to come. But the have been trending colder as we go! Shocked

by **bigbris** 2013-08-21, 12:14 am

Here is a little picture to go along with that Jscentraltn. It is just one model but I do like the looks. :-)

by **windstorm** 2013-08-22, 1:53 pm

Here is the Old Farmer A for most if not all city's in Tennessee for the up coming winter into next year. You decide::: http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/TN mad

by **windstorm** 2013-08-22, 7:25 pm

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=15543&topicid=43755&Itemid=179

by **windstorm** 2013-08-25, 2:43 pm

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forum/2013/07/17/my-new-and-updated-winter-2013-2014-prediction/ Here a look at the Farmers Almanac not to be confuse with Old Farmers Almanac. Be nice if it came true.

by **Toot** 2013-10-05, 6:11 am

CFS is predicting a significant neg Arctic oscillation for the month of October. If it verifies cold winter odds would be very high!
WXeasterns OAOIC - (Oct Artcic Oscillation index correlation) Ao_cfsv2_32ens_2013100418