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CFSv2 seasonal guidance model

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CFSv2 seasonal guidance model

Post by Toot on 2012-10-20, 12:03 am

Ive been watching the temp progs from the CFSv2 for several months now and im pretty much convinced that this model is ran with quite the warm bias! It doesnt seem to forecast any larger areas of cold anomalies over north America unless its for a current month that is already running colder than normal. On the other hand it goes wild with warm anomalies just about every month. Im not sure what kind of data NCEP initializes this model off of..but it SEEMS quite apparent that this model has one heck of a warm bias. Im not 100% sure or maybe im analyzing the data incorrectly.. or maybe its just something in the atmosphere this season..lol but i'll continue to monitor new runs to see if this changes over the next year or so.

BTW the CFSv1 didnt seem nowhere near as biased!

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Re: CFSv2 seasonal guidance model

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-20, 3:25 pm

NCEP is a branch of NOAA isn't it? Not surprising that it has a warm bias.

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Re: CFSv2 seasonal guidance model

Post by Toot on 2012-10-20, 7:03 pm

Yes..they are a branch of NOAA

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Re: CFSv2 seasonal guidance model

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-22, 8:36 pm

Not surprising this is Don Sutherland's go to model. Of course it was fairly spot on last winter if I recall.
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