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Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-21, 4:34 pm

As you probably already know..all eyes will turn to what should become Sandy next week when this system is progged to come up the east coast and phase with an Arctic cold front! This one could impact millions of people and its definately progged to be a strong system at this point and maybe even historic if it does make the phase. That said.. there are signs that this system will start to take on non-tropical characteristics pretty early in its life. Notice how it begins to develop frontal like structure very early in its life off the Florida coast.. in the HWRF's simulated satellite imagery.




That would mean the wind fields would be spread out like a mid latitude system and you wouldnt have the very intense winds confined to a small area around the center of circulation. It would be more of a powerful Nor'easter than it would be a purely tropical system. That said..if the system verifies like the euro suggests you would still have wind damage and erosion in coastal areas.

Checkout the huge wind field at 850Mb on todays Euro as it landfalls in the Mid Atlantic! (Images courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics and Ryan Maue)



Truly a Nor'easter on steroids!! rock on


Last edited by Toot on 2012-11-03, 12:35 am; edited 6 times in total

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-21, 5:55 pm

Hmm..no replies to such an epic storm?

Maybe this will stir some conversation! Since we know the Canadian isnt crazy now..I guess its alright to post these. Yes..im posting snow graphics in a tropical thread. Lol..there is a first time for everything!

This mornings 0z CMC






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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-10-21, 6:09 pm

Yes it is an incredible storm, I am eager to see what happens with this storm system.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by skillsweather on 2012-10-21, 6:12 pm

Oh, I thought this was coming from the north. So this is basically a storm in the Atlantic coming north west? That does make this interesting. Waters should be warm enough to make it a tropical storm and its late enough that its got a somewhat good cold air source to tap and the storm is big enough to tap the cold air source and bring it down to us. IF this turns out like the pictures your posting this will be a crazy storm to talk about. I can see it now. "Tropical storm brings snow to Tennessee on Halloween day. Trick or Treat? Depends on what you ordered I guess!"

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-21, 6:15 pm

skillsweather wrote:Oh, I thought this was coming from the north. So this is basically a storm in the Atlantic coming north west?

Yep..tropical system comes north..turns into a non-tropical system and retrogrades back into the lakes. Its the most interesting thing Ive seen since the winter of 2010/2011

Here is a shot of the 12zEuro today


For people in east TN...the first retrograding noreaster that comes to mind is the Great Appalachian storm of November 1950

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-21, 6:29 pm

will be an amazing storm to follow. hopefully at least the mountains of ETN will get some flakes

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-21, 7:30 pm

Even though wikipedia declined it... here is an article that I wrote on another retrograding Nor'easter! I may resubmit this one to Wiki after I edit it this winter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia_talk:Articles_for_creation/The_Great_Knoxville_Snowstorm_of_1952

Very similar storm to the great Apps storm of 1950..although these two storms didnt start off tropical they are very similar to the synoptic situation that is currently being progged by the CMC/EURO

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-21, 9:25 pm

nice write up toot!

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-21, 11:08 pm

Thanks Reb..for folks that love analysis..it does not get any better than this..I PROMISE!!

Its from DT but this is the best analysis on the potential storm that you will find. There is an audio link at the top that will guide you through all the images!

http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/10/this-week-in-weather-sunday-102112/






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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 12:29 am

Last two runs of the GFS has said what Arctic intrusion?? And what Nor'easter?? Haha.. welcome to cold season model watching cheers

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 1:38 am

For you hardcore wxnerds (Like me) that are still up.. the canadian model sticks to its guns early this morning. Verbatim this model would mean heavy comma head snows in the OH/TN valleys along with the Appalachians!

Bombs away!!


Still plenty of time to watch this change and on that note.. Good Night!

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-22, 9:30 am

I just don't even know what to do with this. Maybe the mayans are right....

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 11:24 am

jmundie wrote:I just don't even know what to do with this. Maybe the mayans are right....

Lol..The GFS and its ensembles doesnt want anything to do with this. Its a huge disagreement....its all or nothing with the two different camps. The GFS seems to be standing its ground though..be interesting to see what 12z guidance says.

Meanwhile we have TD 18

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 2:12 pm

New run of the Canadian model is in and it is more like the Euro from last night. Its more compact and would affect less people..that said its a more intense system that would produce more destructive winds where it landfalls. Although..the snow would be spread out over a MUCH SMALLER area..and would be little to any snow threat here. The American model (GFS) is still disagreeing with the foreign guidance models as it doesnt have a big storm at all affecting the eastern US.

Next model to run is the European model... It should be out in about an hour!


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 3:04 pm

New 12z Euro has monster tropical system 928Mb off of Long Island. Ummm Ok...I think I just shat my pants!!



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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-22, 3:13 pm

What the heck happened to the cold air? Later phase?

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 3:24 pm

jmundie wrote:What the heck happened to the cold air? Later phase?

It never really fully phases to my eye...there might be some kind of partial phasing going on there...not sure. Sandy would almost have to be fully tropical to produce those kinds of pressures tho. Both the CMC/Euro wrapped up extremely tight in the 12z runs. I just dont think a system can wrap up that tight at those latitudes this time of year. They have trouble doing that even in the summer months.. much less the fall. Im sure its not totally impossible but very unlikely IMO. Still no closer to an actual solution here...it actually looks like we are getting farther away from decent agreement on a solution Mad

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 3:38 pm

JMA comes ashore in the Carolinas..Man I wish I had access to hours beyond 144 of this model. I know its a crazy model but I would like to see how this one plays out

lol!


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-22, 3:42 pm

LOL at the JMA. Serious dumpage going on up in Michigan though.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by skillsweather on 2012-10-22, 4:05 pm

Ok as of now what has the warmest model temp wise shown for our area Monday-Wednesday next week. I just want to know the worse case scenario.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Eric on 2012-10-22, 4:29 pm

From one of my met professors via FB:

While the Euro is overdone, I lean more towards a strong storm affecting the US coast because of blocking. This will help the trough dig in next week and phase with "Sandy". Obviously still a long ways out, but there is legitimate potential here!

I haven't had the chance to scour any data yet to form my own conclusions, so for now I'll just sit back and enjoy everyone elses thoughts.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 4:32 pm

skillsweather wrote:Ok as of now what has the warmest model temp wise shown for our area Monday-Wednesday next week. I just want to know the worse case scenario.


A couple of recent runs of the GFS brings highs up into the 50's while the euro/cmc takes highs into the 30's/40's

Two days ago before the tropical system was introduced into the pattern a record breaking arctic outbreak was being progged to intrude into the southeastern US. 850 temps were progged as low as -10 to -15c and I seen a couple of runs of the GFS that had surface temps around 20 degrees in unelevated spots across Tennessee. Just a guess but at this point the coldest run now seems to be last nights run of the CMC with 850's around -5c


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 5:15 pm

Now Tropical Storm Sandy

Code:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 222057
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 5:48 pm

This thread is way too quiet..I feel like im talking to myself!! cry

Maybe everybody believes that you cant get accumulating snow in the lower elevations of Tennessee in October. Ive heard some say "Its never gonna happen" on different forums. IMO that is some retarded logic. That is the same as saying "We're gonna get snow for sure" both of those phrases are the same logic in my book.

Anyways.. back to reality here! Tonights 0z model runs will have hurricane hunter aircraft data ingested into them. Will be interesting to see how each model handles things. I stayed up for the euro last night..lol I just couldnt sleep with such an anomalous setup being progged!

Meanwhile the 18z GFS is running pals

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-10-22, 6:08 pm

Toot wrote:This thread is way too quiet..I feel like im talking to myself!! cry

Maybe everybody believes that you cant get accumulating snow in the lower elevations of Tennessee in October. Ive heard some say "Its never gonna happen" on different forums. IMO that is some retarded logic. That is the same as saying "We're gonna get snow for sure" both of those phrases are the same logic in my book.

Anyways.. back to reality here! Tonights 0z model runs will have hurricane hunter aircraft data ingested into them. Will be interesting to see how each model handles things. I stayed up for the euro last night..lol I just couldnt sleep with such an anomalous setup being progged!

Meanwhile the 18z GFS is running pals

Toot I have actually seen a solid 4 inches of snow on the ground on Halloween at my house. I will have to do some digging to remember what year but it can happen.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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