Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 3:33 pm

jmundie wrote:Why is the euro so warm?

In reference to what? It looks pretty cold for October.

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 3:38 pm

Here is the totals for that run...ummm ok!! hurry

by **Stovepipe** on 2012-10-25, 3:45 pm

Yeah, I bet "apeshit" doesn't even begin to describe AmericanWX right now.

by **Reb** on 2012-10-25, 4:00 pm

Stove no joke ill go and even drive im taking off work

by **etnwx** on 2012-10-25, 6:15 pm

18Z GFS brings Sandy closer to the Florida coast.

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 6:30 pm

18z gfs model now lines up with the euro..snow breaks out in virtually the same places!! pass out

by **Reb** on 2012-10-25, 6:40 pm

wow. im going somewhere. VA, Tri Cities, somehwere...for sure

by **skillsweather** on 2012-10-25, 6:42 pm

Wish I was near east tennessee. Anyone In middle Tennessee going up there and want to take me! hhaha

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 6:49 pm

The 18z gfs/nam was the first runs with the extra weather balloon/sonde data ingested

by **Reb** on 2012-10-25, 6:55 pm

Toot wrote:The 18z gfs/nam was the first runs with the extra weather balloon/sonde data ingested

to me this proves that euro is king

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 7:30 pm

Here is an animaed gif i just made showing the monster phase that takes place at h5 from the 18zGFS

by **Reb** on 2012-10-25, 7:34 pm

very nice toot

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 7:56 pm

Cant help but feel sorry for poor ole Henry Margusity over at Accuwx..he he has took it on the chin today on FB.

Here is his latest FB status update

Big Daddy hat will be on tomorrow. Original OTS forecast thrown out going with disaster storm. Time to go into storm mode! This will be the biggest storm in decades if all the models are correct. NAO is going to -2.5 which means watch out! I think the problem was I recognized the low NAO, but tried to make a new storm instead of excepting Sandy as the storm due to the low NAO.

Lmao

by **skillsweather** on 2012-10-25, 8:00 pm

You know that this is real when all the big guys are making statements like that to the public. This is going to be crazy hopefully I can get some flakes to calm my jealousy.

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 8:24 pm

skillsweather wrote:You know that this is real when all the big guys are making statements like that to the public. This is going to be crazy hopefully I can get some flakes to calm my jealousy.

Henry makes crazy statements to the public on a daily basis. He's been talking like this storm was going out to sea right up until this morning. Now he suddenly says he's thrown his old forecast out the window and going with a "Disaster Storm" I mean thats like a total 180
lapat

People have been badmouthing him directly on his FB page all day. Knowing henry.. he will say something crazier before this is over.

by **Reb** on 2012-10-25, 8:43 pm

at least he threw away his pride and straight up said yep this storm will be historic.

by **Stovepipe** on 2012-10-25, 9:06 pm

NOAA is now saying it'll be a 5-6 day event, dubbing it "Frankenstorm" LOL.

http://news.yahoo.com/noaa-east-beware-coming-frankenstorm-171317994.html

I'm going to make a separate thread to discuss chasing the Halloblizzard.

by **Adam2014** on 2012-10-25, 9:18 pm

Toot I have problems believing the temperature maps progged by the GFS and Euro. The GFS has mid 30s for the duration of the event. If there was any sort of pull of of the lakes or any precip at all on away from the main system, it would be in the form of snow right? Or will there have to be dynamic cooling?

by **Stovepipe** on 2012-10-25, 9:28 pm

Don Sutherland's thoughts this afternoon:

Some early thoughts on Sandy…

The combination of a severe block and deepening trough anchored in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region that will likely go negative will lead to Sandy’s being captured and reeled to landfall. While the sudden left turn seen repeatedly on the ECMWF would amount to a rare event, it is not unprecedented.

The sharp left turn taken by Tropical Storm Dean (1983) during a strong block, albeit not as strong as the current one, provides an example.

http://weather.unisy.../DEAN/track.gif

Hurricane #8 (1991) aka the “Perfect Storm” provides another illustration. That storm developed during a block that rivals the current one in magnitude.

http://weather.unisy...991/8/track.gif

Right now, my thinking is that the area with the highest possibility of landfall extends from the Virginia Capes to extreme eastern Massachusetts. With Sandy’s being stronger at this stage than had been depicted on some of the guidance from a few days ago and the severe block largely precluding an exit out to sea, I suspect that the deepening trough will have an easier time capturing Sandy. The quickening timeframe for capture may well explain the southward evolution in the guidance over the past 24 hours.

Baroclinic deepening from growing interaction with the trough and Sandy’s passage over the Gulf Stream will likely allow it to conserve much of its strength. Its coming ashore with Category 1 maximum sustained winds is a distinct possibility.

In terms of impacts, even if Sandy comes ashore along the southern region of the Delmarva, its windfield will be expansive. Hence, gales and coastal flooding would be likely along the South Shore of Long Island, the New Jersey Coast, and coastal southern New England. For reference, one should keep in mind that Hurricane #8 (1991) impacted those areas, even as it remained some 150 to 200 miles offshore. Moreover, that storm’s central pressure fell to 972 mb. Sandy might have a central pressure 15-30 mb lower if one errs on the side of conservatism.

Finally, it should be noted that following Hurricane #8 (1991), the Arctic Oscillation rebounded. Some of the ensembles point to a similar outcome following Sandy. Overall, November wound up colder than normal across most of the U.S., except for the West Coast and northern Mid-Atlantic/New England.

The latest run of the CFSv2 shows the eastern third of the U.S. being colder than normal for November, except for northern New England. The major point is that the pattern following Sandy could feature a sizable area of cool anomalies for November. Should that cold materialize, it would remain to be seen whether December would feature the kind of reversal to widespread warmth that occurred in 1991.

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 9:33 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Toot I have problems believing the temperature maps progged by the GFS and Euro. The GFS has mid 30s for the duration of the event. If there was any sort of pull of of the lakes or any precip at all on away from the main system, it would be in the form of snow right? Or will there have to be dynamic cooling?

Well it is still October..that means it takes a very powerful system to get temp profiles cold enough favorable for snow no matter how cold the airmass is to our north. This system is really vigorous especially at 850mb and the coldest air will come and go with the actual low. When the stormcenter is closest to us..that's when it will be the coldest..and thats also when any precip will affect TN..so yeah any precip should be mostly snow. When the stormcenter starts pulling off to the NE the cold air will go with it and it will warm up from west to east.

by **Adam2014** on 2012-10-25, 9:36 pm

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Toot I have problems believing the temperature maps progged by the GFS and Euro. The GFS has mid 30s for the duration of the event. If there was any sort of pull of of the lakes or any precip at all on away from the main system, it would be in the form of snow right? Or will there have to be dynamic cooling?

Well it is still October..that means it takes a very powerful system to get temp profiles cold enough favorable for snow no matter how cold the airmass is to our north. This system is really vigorous especially at 850mb and the coldest air will come and go with the actual low. When the stormcenter is closest to us..that's when it will be the coldest..and thats also when any precip will affect TN..so yeah any precip should be mostly snow. When the stormcenter starts pulling off to the NE the cold air will go with it and it will warm up from west to east.

I guess what I mean is that both models have shown a very sharp cut off. Do you think it will be that black and white? Or will there be snow showers associated with it.

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 9:45 pm

Adam2014 wrote:

I guess what I mean is that both models have shown a very sharp cut off. Do you think it will be that black and white? Or will there be snow showers associated with it.

No it will not be that black and white..there should be snow showers more westward than what models currently show if they are close to being correct right now. However..looking at the 850mb cold advection flow I doubt these snow showers get as far west as your area. Of course..who knows if this west and south trend is finished though? There is still alot of uncertainties with this system and its still very possible for no one to see snow here in TN.

by **Stovepipe** on 2012-10-25, 9:55 pm

by **Stovepipe** on 2012-10-25, 10:14 pm

Someone at AmericanWX is already whining about sun angle...

facepalm

by **Toot** on 2012-10-25, 10:24 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Someone at AmericanWX is already whining about sun angle...

It could definately be a problem in the lower elevations and lee of the Apps over in NC. These places will have to deal with major downsloping which will warm the temp profiles up. Throw an October sun angle into the equation and it will probably be too warm for snow at the boundary layer. Then again..such a powerhouse of a system might negate that effect..truly a unique setup and there is alot of unknowns right now

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