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Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-10-22, 6:31 pm

The thing that intrigues me the most is that while this storm is not likely, storms like this are what re-write history and the way we think about storm systems. There are storms that have happened similar to this and just because it is not likely doesn't mean it can't happen.

I personally believe that this is going to happen, but with a more concentrated emphasis on the northeast..

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 7:01 pm

Adam2014 wrote: Storms like this are what re-write history and the way we think about storm systems.

That's a good point Adam..if the euro or the CMC has their way it most definately would be Historic. I really never think about it that way..but we could actually be watching a "benchmark" type of storm unfolding right before our eyes looking at guidance data. I would like to see the GFS come on board (The 18zGFS was the same.. OTS) before I get super excited...lol

That said.. this system is causing quite the fuss in the weather community! whiskey

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-10-22, 7:07 pm

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote: Storms like this are what re-write history and the way we think about storm systems.

That's a good point Adam..if the euro or the CMC has their way it most definately would be Historic. I really never think about it that way..but we could actually be watching a "benchmark" type of storm unfolding right before our eyes looking at guidance data. I would like to see the GFS come on board (The 18zGFS was the same.. OTS) before I get super excited...lol

That said.. this system is causing quite the fuss in the weather community! whiskey
I mean I think there is a possiblity for many storm systems that we have never seen before. We do not totally understand meteorology and I do not think we ever will. This means it could happen.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-22, 7:51 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:
Toot wrote:This thread is way too quiet..I feel like im talking to myself!! cry

Maybe everybody believes that you cant get accumulating snow in the lower elevations of Tennessee in October. Ive heard some say "Its never gonna happen" on different forums. IMO that is some retarded logic. That is the same as saying "We're gonna get snow for sure" both of those phrases are the same logic in my book.

Anyways.. back to reality here! Tonights 0z model runs will have hurricane hunter aircraft data ingested into them. Will be interesting to see how each model handles things. I stayed up for the euro last night..lol I just couldnt sleep with such an anomalous setup being progged!

Meanwhile the 18z GFS is running pals

Toot I have actually seen a solid 4 inches of snow on the ground on Halloween at my house. I will have to do some digging to remember what year but it can happen.

It was 93 - massive arctic outbreak

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-22, 8:23 pm

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue. Jesus, this could be good.

wash
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-22, 8:51 pm

i need some models to be running dang it!
gaah

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 8:55 pm

Half of the 18zGFS ensembles now look much more like the CMC/EURO. This is a huge change in the ensembles..it was only a couple of them phasing in past runs. IMO this strongly increases the odds of the CMC/Euro's solution being the more correct one!


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-22, 8:58 pm

what were the ensembles like in previous runs before this toot?

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 9:01 pm

The 12z run before only had two on the bottom row that actually phased



Last edited by Toot on 2012-10-23, 6:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-22, 9:02 pm

toot bringing the heat

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-22, 10:21 pm

The 12zNogaps is also phasing the polar jet and the tropical energy..but its too late/far east for much in the way of wintry fun in this neck of the woods. Still a thing of beauty tho!

drool




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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-23, 8:50 am

Guidance models seem to have come into better agreement over the night (with the exception of the gfs of course) as we have a pretty good consensus now. The CMC/EURO/JMA/NOGAPS all take a strong tropical system up the east coast and phase it with the cold front. Then they proceed to retrograde a strong hybrid or non tropical system into the great lakes region and it taps into the cold air source up in the higher latitudes. Although small scale details will still need to be worked out.. we have remarkable agreement in long range guidance this morning! The Ohio Valley and central Appalachians looks to be the sweet spot for the heavy snow associated with this system. I will try to fine tune this later in the week as the smaller scale details become clearer!

0z European model showing the strength of this system at the 850mb level of the atmosphere!


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by skillsweather on 2012-10-23, 9:07 am

Is that showing us in the 20's? and the purple area in the teens?

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-23, 9:10 am

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-23, 9:36 am

skillsweather wrote:Is that showing us in the 20's? and the purple area in the teens?

Those are 850 temps skills -

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by skillsweather on 2012-10-23, 9:38 am

Ahh, makes more sense lol I was about to say from what I have been hearing its going to get colder but not that cold.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by VFL on 2012-10-23, 10:23 am

Want.To.Believe.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-23, 11:41 am

One of the 0z gfs ensembles dumps a but load of snow from nashville north and east.

It has the low retrograding and cutting off over the Ohio valley.

Would love for that to happen, but honestly, just being able to watch this thing bomb in real time would be amazing wherever it ends up.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-23, 1:00 pm

Agreed Mundie...just watching this evolve is a treat in itself..it will be interesting to see where this trends over the next few days

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-23, 5:15 pm

First..let me say that the Canadian trended towards an out to sea solution this afternoon...which was surprising!!The GFS ensembles have continued to trend towards the phased solution though. Ive been looking at model data most of the afternoon and I must say if this system phases and retrogrades like the European/Canadian/Nogaps have been consistently suggesting.. it's gonna be historic!! I think it will surprise many at how large the precip shield is. Winds will be howling several hundred miles away from the stormcenter and you better believe there will be an impressive fetch from northwest flow.

This graphic is my current thoughts about the possibility of accumulating snow if the phased/retrograded solution verifies. This graphic is based on the guidance consensus over the past few days and behavior of similar storms in the past. This image does not take into account snow flying in the air that doesnt accumulate from NW flow.




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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-10-23, 5:36 pm

Toot wrote:First..let me say that the Canadian trended towards an out to sea solution this afternoon...which was surprising!!The GFS ensembles have continued to trend towards the phased solution though. Ive been looking at model data most of the afternoon and I must say if this system phases and retrogrades like the European/Canadian/Nogaps have been consistently suggesting.. it's gonna be historic!! I think it will surprise many at how large the precip shield is. Winds will be howling several hundred miles away from the stormcenter and you better believe there will be an impressive fetch from northwest flow.

This graphic is my current thoughts about the possibility of accumulating snow if the phased/retrograded solution verifies. This graphic is based on the guidance consensus over the past few days and behavior of similar storms in the past. This image does not take into account snow flying in the air that doesnt accumulate from NW flow.


Toot if I may make a suggestion to your call map so far. I would honestly put the best chance of heavy snow in the mountains of PA/NY because the EURO has been pinpointing it there for the last few runs. That is just a suggestion.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-23, 5:46 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Toot if I may make a suggestion to your call map so far. I would honestly put the best chance of heavy snow in the mountains of PA/NY because the EURO has been pinpointing it there for the last few runs. That is just a suggestion.

Thanks Adam..but the clown map from accupro/wxunderground is the only data showing that. Thickness values do not support that either. I like the sweet spot a little further south than that..but as the system starts pulling away to the north those areas should see some snow. I will update that graphic in a couple of days as new data comes in


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-10-23, 5:55 pm

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Toot if I may make a suggestion to your call map so far. I would honestly put the best chance of heavy snow in the mountains of PA/NY because the EURO has been pinpointing it there for the last few runs. That is just a suggestion.

Thanks Adam..but the clown map from accupro is the only data showing that. 1000-500mb thickness values doesnt support it.
You have a point, and I wasn't even looking at accupro lol.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-23, 6:05 pm

HPC is definately talking sexy whiskey



ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY'S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-23, 7:43 pm

15zSREF is quite a bit further west with sandy compared to the consensus of globals. This could mean it phases with the cold front a little quicker. The track of this storm is pretty far from being set in stone..as with any phasing situation you wont really know where this going until it phases..but guidance models seem to have a decent hold on this situation..time will tell!


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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