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Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 4:20 pm

Here is the PDF briefing by MRX they have 10-16 in the northern sections of the Smokies and 18" in the high Knob area of of SW Virginia.

When this page opens scroll down to the bottom and hit the play button

http://pdfcast.org/pdf/winter-storm-briefing

They have it labeled November 28th..lol


Meanwhile..here is nice view of Sandy this evening


Personally..it looks like a really well organized Subtropical system..which I think can also be labeled a "Hurricane" but dont quote me on that.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-28, 6:27 pm

Apparently it is currently snowing very hard in the high country of Western NC and blizzard warnings in effect for VA. Getting excited!
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 7:02 pm

Im sitting at 44.3 with light mist/drizzle here in Mtown right now. I think folks up near Kingsport/Bristol are gonna get a nice surprise monday night into tuesday as the freezing level drops all the way to the valley floor but the Tri Cities area should have some very nice rates to quickly offset the warm ground.

I started to do a more of a localized call map but its too touchy of a situation. I'll just leave it at POSSIBLE coatings on grassy surfaces in the northern valley locations!

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-28, 8:02 pm

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 8:44 pm

This is what the 4kmWRF-ARW says the radar is gonna look like late monday night!


And here's the surface temps for the same hr



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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-28, 8:55 pm

so warm

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-28, 9:05 pm

I think/hope you're right Toot! We definitely had a day of rain here. Just under 0.75in. Heres hoping we can see at least a small taste of what Tri-cities and the mtns. Get pals

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 9:25 pm

From Kentucky Meteorologist Chris Bailey!



http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=4556

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-28, 9:32 pm

dang need him to do another 20 miles south on that map lol

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 9:34 pm

Reb wrote:dang need him to do another 20 miles south on that map lol

Im right on the border of 6-16in lulz retard

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-28, 9:43 pm

Never heard of this guy. I like him already though, lol geeze is there data to support that much snow for us in Morristown? I haven't seen it, but I'd be one happy guy to see 6-16 in. geez

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-28, 10:00 pm

Nm, I hadn't seen the 18z gfs, his forecast was basically that

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 10:01 pm

Speaking of data..here is extracted GFS text data for tuesday only at TRI



That is .91 of liquid just on tuesday with every paramater favoable for snow. That said.. the GFS is sometimes too cold..but I think its pretty close this time.


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 10:10 pm

Jed33 wrote:Nm, I hadn't seen the 18z gfs, his forecast was basically that
Lol..It was definately nice to us!




Good Gawwd..that's hot!



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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 11:04 pm

Sandy now trying to intensify as she builds convection around COC and eye feature now becoming visible. ALL time east coast pressure records are going down in flames tonight and tomorrow!! Currently 950Mb yikes


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-28, 11:06 pm

I read the storm is 1000 miles across, new record!
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-28, 11:12 pm

Would a stronger system lead to the models shifting snow amounts south like we have been seeing today? all the data I'm seeing says the global models are about 10mb too high initializing on pressure readings. If this is the case, then that snowfall data may be off, and this may be why we keep seeing amounts go up? Don't know, just a theory

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-28, 11:20 pm

One of the mets on American is pretty confident TRI will see 4-8 inches. Says MOS guidance is too warm on this and that is probably why the NWS is underestimating snowfall in valley areas.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 11:24 pm

Jed33 wrote:Would a stronger system lead to the models shifting snow amounts south like we have been seeing today? all the data I'm seeing says the global models are about 10mb too high initializing on pressure readings. If this is the case, then that snowfall data may be off, and this may be why we keep seeing amounts go up? Don't know, just a theory

Bingo! If you hadnt noticed the GFS/NAM has been trending wetter all day long! If you remember.. ive been saying precip was underdone and modeled too far north and east from the get go on this. Im beginning to think we are even gonna see a few inches here in Mtown. We will have the best forcing and moisture after dark tomorrow night into tuesday morning and this is also when temp profiles will be the coldest.

To me.. this means accumulating snow!! IDK what kind of cards MRX is holding onto to think otherwise? IMO they are clinging to October climo in the east TN valley...but this system couldnt care less about October climo!

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-28, 11:31 pm

Yep, I saw that. I would think that even though this is still oct. A storm of this size could pull down enough cold air for snow assuming the precip was there. I'm not sure our "weak" computer models can fully understand a storm like this. It's in its own league

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-28, 11:34 pm

One thing is certain, if the valley gets accumulating snow, some fun is going to be had on Bob Becker's Facebook page LOL.

And yeah, climolol.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-28, 11:39 pm

Stovepipe wrote:One thing is certain, if the valley gets accumulating snow, some fun is going to be had on Bob Becker's Facebook page LOL.

And yeah, climolol.

LOL..I got banned from posting on that page today!! I never even said anything else to them after the the screenshot I showed yall yesterday. Not that I ever posted there anyways. Just happened to read his so called "forecast"



lapat




Last edited by Toot on 2012-10-28, 11:49 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-28, 11:45 pm

*snicker*

Meanwhile...

Long Island storm surge at high tide, expected to be 13-14 feet:





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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-28, 11:49 pm

I just read gfs just shifted s again!

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-28, 11:54 pm

National Hurricane Center:

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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